For the last decade, the Philadelphia Phillies lineup has been centered around Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. The Phillies are now looking to part ways with Howard, whose production is dropping off. Through 100 games played this season, Howard is suffering career lows, not including his injury plagued 2012 season. Howard is hitting an anemic .224 with an on-base percentage of .306, and only slugging .380.
Howard, when healthy for an entire season, is usually good for 30+ home runs. This season, he’s on pace for about 23 big flies. His RBI has seen a decrease as well. As it stands, Howard is on pace for 85 RBI, which would surpass his career low of 108 that he had in 2010. After a slightly below average year in 2011, Howard missed most of the first half of the next season with a torn Achilles tendon. In the 2013 season, he missed the entire second half of the season with a torn meniscus in his left knee.
It is no doubt that injuries have played a huge part in the latter half of Ryan Howard’s career, but right now, the Phillies simply cannot afford to have an injury plagued 34-year old on their team. Over the last four seasons, Howard has gone from .276/.353/.505 to .224/.306/.380. His power has also fallen off a significant amount.
Recently the Phillies have benched Howard for his poor play. After being benched, Ryan Howard was 3-13 (.230 AVG) with no RBI.
At the current moment, Philadelphia does not have a good solution for replacing Howard. If they were to get rid of Howard, I would suspect it would be after John Mayberry Jr. returns from the disabled list. Mayberry isn’t having a stellar season either, but he is almost five years younger than Ryan Howard, and has a 0.8 point advantage in WAR (wins above replacement), and can also play multiple positions.
The other option at first base is Darin Ruf. Ruf has spent parts of three season with the club, but has never been a major producer. He has shown flashes of power during his time in the big leagues. In 73 games during 2013, he hit 14 home runs.
If the Phillies are desperate enough, they can call up minor league first baseman Jim Murphy. Jim Murphy is an underperforming first baseman at the minor league level, so I highly doubt that the Phillies would do that until they were absolutely out of options.
Ryan Howard’s days with the Philadelphia Phillies, and probably even the league, are numbered. There isn’t a team in baseball that wants a 35-year old first baseman whose power is dwindling as well as his talent level.
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