Commissioner Bud Selig had an interesting, yet unsurprising. response during the MLB All-Star Game when asked what his biggest accomplishment was during his 23 seasons at the helm of America’s past time. He sited competitive balance as his proudest accomplishment, bringing considerably more parity to the league since 1992.
A case can be made for a more balanced league by simply looking at the standings: as of the All Star break, Baltimore is sitting five games up on the Yankees, who, in the recent off-season spent $400 million plus acquiring talent. The money ball Athletics hold the AL West lead, reigning over a division where the Angels, Mariners and Rangers have also spent hundreds of millions to better their respective teams.
Competitive balance rounds of the MLB Draft, free agent compensation and the like have done an admirable job of evening the playing field. Teams know, though, that with big market teams offering their stars huge contracts, small market clubs have very small windows to win. Oakland recently traded their top prospect Addison Russell to the Cubs for Jeff Samardzija. A classic “win now” move, Billy Beane has to know that Samardzija, Josh Donaldson, Sonny Gray, etc. will receive offer sheets that the A’s simply can’t match. The A’s must win now, or rely on their rising star players taking hometown discounts. That is a rarity in today’s sports world.
A similar, yet different situation is taking place in Tampa Bay, where David Price is being shopped for what can only be assumed to be a sky-high price tag. With perennial All-Star third-baseman Evan Longoria in the middle of a nine-figure contract, and Price set to haul in a likely larger sum than Longoria, Andrew Friedman will need one heck of a pitch to bring Price back after his contract expires after 2015. Chalk it up to teams like the Dodgers being able to offer $30 million per-year deals.
A win is valued at approximately $5 million on the free agent market. For this reason, financially strapped teams must get everything they can during the player’s tenure with the given club and flip them for the highest-possible value.
There are double digit teams that have probably made a phone call to Friedman in recent weeks, though here are the three most logical ending points:
#1. Seattle Mariners
There’s no such thing as a pitching prospect. The Mariners’ farm teams in Tacoma, Clinton and elsewhere have high upside pitching, though none of it seems capable of staying healthy. An example is Danny Hultzen, who may still be the number two or three starter that Jack Zduriencik had hoped for, though his career has been side-tracked by labrum and rotator cuff injuries. Taijuan Walker, projected to be a future ace, has struggled with nagging injuries during his short career as well. Walker might be exactly what the Rays are looking for. A young, cost-controlled pitcher who has a lot of upside is something that small markets thrive on. Walker alone would not get the job done, though. The Rays would likely seek several more of the M’s impact youngsters (and they don’t have many). Acquiring Price makes sense for the Mariner’s as it gives them a boost towards the playoffs in a division where they are finally competitive, but not talented enough. A rotation with a top three of Felix Hernandez, David Price and Hisashi Iwakuma would be fun to watch come playoff time.
#2. Miami Marlins
Priority number one for the Marlins should be retaining the services of Giancarlo Stanton. Finally healthy and posting MVP caliber numbers, Stanton has made it clear that he would not be opposed to staying in Miami; as long as they show that they are dedicated to winning. How better to do that then by adding an ace in the midst of his prime? The Marlins are six games under .500, a good mark for a rebuilding team. Whereas they rank in the upper half of the league in most categories offensively, they are in the bottom third in pitching categories such as ERA, Quality Starts and Strikeouts. Price would not be the only move that the Marlins would need to make to be a contender, though it is the type of transaction that could bring them to within one or two steps. The Marlins have the pieces to get a trade done as well. Stud pitching prospect Andrew Heaney would likely need to be part of the trade, as would Colin Moran and/or Justin Nicolino. I wouldn’t bet against Price resigning in Miami, either, as he can stay close to what he has established in St. Petersburg.
#3. Chicago Cubs
There is reason to believe that the Cubs brass believes in the mantra of developing hitting and paying for established pitching. In recent drafts, the team has passed early on high-profile arms to attain high-profile bats (Kris Bryant over Jonathan Gray in 2013, Kyle Schwarber over Aaron Nola in 2014). Even more recently, the Cubs flipped their best pitcher, Samardzija, for stud position players. The team now has an infield logjam of epic proportions. All-Star shortstop Starlin Castro is being pushed by minor league sensations Addison Russell and Javier Baez. It is just a matter of time before third baseman Luis Valbuena is replaced at the hot corner by Kris Bryant or Christian Villanueva. The Cubs are at a place where they can trade multiple top prospects and not significantly dent their overall system. Eventually, they will flip some of their pieces for an established ace. Unfortunately for Chicago, a team can’t start three players at shortstop. Many expect the Cubs to make a run at Jon Lester when he becomes a free agent in November, reuniting him with Theo Epstein. A 2015 pitching rotation with Jon Lester and David Price would fit very well with the soon-to-be potent Wrigleyville offense.
These are the two teams that would not make as much sense, but are poised to make a run:
#1. Saint Louis Cardinals
Rumors had it that Friedman and John Mozeliak had a deal in place last week, though Mozeliak pulled out at the last minute. The Cardinals have the pieces to make a move like David Price happen, no one can question that. The head scratching part of the red birds wanting Price, though, is that they already have a vast array of solid pitchers. Michael Wacha and Shelby Miller seem capable of doing real damage at the top of the Cardinals rotation (though Wacha is struggling with injuries at the moment and Miller is just struggling). Alan Reyes and Marco Gonzales are shooting up through the Cardinals farm system, and will likely be in Busch Stadium within the next year or two. The real problem with adding Price, though, is financial. Will the Cardinals be able to resign Price after 2015 and still have the money to resign Matt Adams, Trevor Roesnthal, Kolten Wong, Wacha and Miller? All of them are on rookie deals, and nearly all of them will be getting paid by someone, if not the Cardinals, in the coming years.
#2. New York Yankees
With “The Captain” retiring after the season, CC Sabathia having possibly pitched his last Major League game and no semblance of a farm system, the Yankees are heading down the long and arduous road of rebuilding. While the Yankees will certainly fork over obnoxious contracts to free agents that will make them marginally better, the smartest thing that they can do is be bad for two or three years and build a farm system back up. Mediocrity kills in sports, as being too good for a good draft pick and too bad to make the playoffs is the worst of both worlds. Masahiro Tanaka is out for at least the rest of 2014 and part of 2015, so the Yankees will sink to the bottom of the super competitive AL East, anyways. The fact that the Bombers probably don’t even have the necessary pieces to obtain Price says enough. He alone wouldn’t make them a contender.
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