A funny thing happened Friday night, as some of you may know. The first blockbuster trade of the season went down as the Chicago Cubs shipped Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija out to Oakland, in exchange for Dan Straily and prospects Addison Russell and Billy McKinney. This is a game changer in every aspect of the phrase, no bones about it. Not only does it change the trajectory of the two teams involved, but it also has huge ramifications for the July 31st trade deadline market as a whole.
The most obvious effect is that of the two new pitchers in the A’s rotation. Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel both carry ERA’s under 3 (2.83 and 2.98, respectively), while pitching in a very unforgiving division and a hitter’s park. Moving them into the spacious confines of Oakland Coliseum with three amazing defenders in the outfield (pick three of Cespedes, Crisp, Gentry and Reddick) will only help their cause. However, they will now be facing DH’s instead of pitchers in the lineup, so take that as you will. Tommy Milone has already been optioned to Triple-A to clear room on the roster for Samardzija, and it stands to reason they could give the old DFA to Brad Mills. Or, they could move him to the bullpen and DFA Jim Johnson, who has been $10 million worth of a 5.94 ERA. Johnson remains the only weak link left in the Oakland pen after Eric O’Flaherty has finally come back from injury.
For the Cubs, it’s all about Addison Russell. Billy McKinney could turn into a good outfielder and Dan Straily is an interesting bounceback candidate in the vein of the Jake Arietta success story, but here’s what Addison Russell means. He was unanimously considered Oakland’s top prospect and a top-20 prospect in all of baseball. Here’s what he’s done in the minor leagues. Add in good glove work and some excellent speed on the basepaths, and Russell could be a monster.
What’s most important about Russell’s new home are his new teammates. You may have heard the Cubs have one of the better farms in all of baseball. But what you maybe didn’t hear was that Chicago’s minor league is almost entirely in hitting. Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Albert Almora, Arismendy Alcantara and Jorge Soler all have the potential to become impact hitters in the majors, and that’s not even taking into account names like Dan Vogelbach and this year’s 4th overall pick, Kyle Schwarber. What’s even more interesting is that Russell is now the third top-100 shortstop in the Cubs system. Given the success of Starlin Castro, logic states that at least one of the four talented shortstops will be traded for pitching.
As it stands, CJ Edwards is the only true blue chip pitching prospect they have, and he was acquired from, you guessed it, a trade. Edwards arrived with Mike Olt and Justin Grimm in last year’s Matt Garza trade with the Texas Rangers. And newly minted ace Jake Arietta? He came over as a reclamation project in last year’s Scott Feldman trade with Baltimore. It seems hitting is the development strength of Chicago, as only Pierce Johnson at AA represents an internally grown pitcher who could make a big difference at Wrigley Field at some point.
It’s a good thing for them the Mets are in the shortstop market, then. I must give credit where credit is due, as Jon Heyman of CBS mentioned this connection on Twitter Friday night and it really caught my eye. He’s absolutely correct, though. Ever since they lost Jose Reyes, the Mets have struggled to find a consistent fixture at short. Ruben Tejada looked to be the answer in 2010 and 2011, but has struggled to hit ever since. Wilmer Flores has seen time at short at Triple-A and in brief Major League time, but is a much better defender at third. So who better to trade for a future shortstop regular with than the Cubs? The Mets have pitching in spades, which the Cubs desperately need. In addition to the recently graduated Jacob deGrom, the Mets have two top-100 pitching prospects in Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero. Syndergaard may be untouchable, but the Mets also have two young starters on the DL in Dillon Gee and Jeremy Hefner who could be moved. Hefner doesn’t figure to draw a big haul, but any of the others could be big trade pieces for Chicago.
Even Starlin Castro himself could be a target for the Amazin’s, as he’s owed just $43 million for the remainder of his deal with a $16 million club option for 2020. The contract is also backloaded, so there would be little financial pressure the first few years as the Mets continue to figure out their financial woes. Castro’s presence in the majors, youth and affordability would command a top-flight player like Syndergaard, but the Mets can afford to trade him. Remember, Matt Harvey will be back next year, and Zack Wheeler will have one more year of experience. A Mets rotation composed of Harvey/Wheeler/Niese/Gee/deGrom is nothing to sneeze at, plus they’ll have a shiny new Starlin Castro. Castro’s position in Chicago can be filled by one of Baez, Russell and Alcantara. Both Baez and Alcantara have seen time at second base, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see Russell move to third (and therefore Kris Bryant moved to the outfield) to keep his bat in the lineup.
And while we’re on the subject of trades, the blockbuster touches the whole league. Almost every team in contention is in search of pitching, and almost every team was rumored to be in on Samardzija and Hammel. Now both are gone. The loss of Hammel on the market is especially huge. Hammel was signed to a $6 million contract in the offseason and is a free agent in the winter, so he’s essentially a rental and wouldn’t have commanded a huge haul on his own. Teams like the Yankees, Angels, Blue Jays, Orioles and Braves who have obvious holes in their rotation would have loved to have him. That puts the focus on players such as Brandon McCarthy, Ian Kennedy, Wade Miley, and possibly even Bartolo Colon. All of these pitchers will see their prices raised due to the feeding frenzy that’s surely about to ensue.
It also makes the David Price sweepstakes even more complicated. The Rays have completely underperformed this season, but have had some signs of life lately. Since June 11th, the Rays have the best record in the AL East at 15-8, and coming into Saturday’s action sit 8.5 games back from Toronto. If the Rays feel like they can go on a serious run, they’ll keep David Price.
Price is the only other ace besides Samardzija who may have been assuredly on the market. There have been rumbles about the Phillies selling off Cliff Lee or Cole Hamels, but that situation is muddied. Lee has been dealing with health issues and teams looking to make a run at the postseason may be leery of investing in an older pitcher coming off an injury. And Hamels has a ton of money tied up in his contract, which takes a number of smaller-market teams out of the conversation. Those who can afford him will see his price increase even higher, as not only is Hamels a career Phillie who is popular with the fans, but sellers will be in control as potential buyers maneuver to outbid each other from positions of need.
Indeed, because there are so few sellers, the trade deadline could be a bloodbath. At some point, someone is going to get desperate and package way too many prospects for a middling pitcher. The sellers know this, so they’ll hold out until the last minute on July 31st to pull the trigger. And because there’s so many buyers, someone’s going to get left out in the cold. It’ll be the teams with weak farms or untouchable top prospects, most likely. That means that teams like the Yankees, whose top farm teams are relatively empty, and the Orioles, who are loathe to trade any of the fearsome foursome Dylan Bundy/Eduardo Rodriguez/Hunter Harvey/Kevin Gausman. That means the Angels, who just used one of their few chips to go get Joe Thatcher, may be stuck with Matt Shoemaker and Hector Santiago in the rotation. That means the Giants may be stuck in freefall.
All because of one trade. The game has changed, and if Theo Epstien and Billy Beane’s comments today are to be believed, these two teams may not be done. There’s still plenty of buying and selling to be done, not just with Oakland and Chicago but all of baseball. July is one of the most exciting times of the season for this reason, and I for one can’t wait to see what happens next.
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