In my one and only mock draft of the year, I will be picking based upon the most likely scenarios to pan out. Due to the difficult nature of predicting draft day trades, trades will not be factored into the selections, but will be indicated when likely, based upon the intelligence that I have gathered over the past several months. Be sure to also check out Nick Frost’s latest mock draft here, as well as the rest of Last Word On Sports’ NFL draft coverage.
1. Houston Texans: Jadeveon Clowney* – South Carolina – DL
Though conflicting reports are still flying around, Houston is most likely to hold onto the number one selection and pick Clowney. Clowney is not the perfect fit for a 34 defense, but he is far too talented to let scheme get in the way of this selection. If Houston does trade down, Khalil Mack and Johnny Manziel will be their next two targets, presumably in that order, but word is that they will be more than willing to wait until day two to select a QB.
2. St. Louis Rams: Khalil Mack – Buffalo – OLB
The Rams have a lot of options with this pick, assuming they don’t trade out of this spot. The belief is that they will go offensive tackle, but Mack is also in the mix at number two. Mack helps bring a powerful element to the Rams defense, along with pass rush value from the linebacker spot. The Rams could also consider a QB here, but waiting until 13 will offer the best value.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Sammy Watkins* – Clemson – WR
There’s a strong possibility that the team drafting Watkins will have traded up to get him, but Jacksonville could be wise to hold onto the pick, given that the Jaguars brass are unsure as to whether Justin Blackmon will even be with the team, and lack a legitimate receiving option without him. The team is also looking closely at Jake Matthews, who is a better trade-down option, and Teddy Bridgewater, though like most teams, the Jags are willing to wait until round two to snag a signal-caller.
4. Cleveland Browns: Greg Robinson** – Auburn – OT
Cleveland has a plethora of early picks and a lot of options at this spot. The hot names tied to the Browns are Blake Bortles and Mike Evans, but neither offer great value at number four. Offensive tackle is not a huge need, but Head Coach Mike Pettine has indicated he would not be opposed to taking Greg Robinson with this pick. Robinson would help solidify the right side of the line, giving the Browns an outstanding bookend tandem with Robinson and Joe Thomas.
5. Oakland Raiders: Taylor Lewan – Michigan – OT
Like most teams, Oakland would like to move down from this spot in order to acquire more picks, especially considering they are enamored with DT Aaron Donald. The Raiders like several QBs, but Derek Carr appears to be their favorite, and could be had later. Despite adding several linemen in free agency, the Raiders are still looking for more tackle help, and reportedly like Lewan more than Robinson or Matthews, presumably because he offers more long term pass-protection help.
6. Atlanta Falcons: Jake Matthews – Texas A&M – OT
Though Atlanta would love to move up for Clowney, they likely won’t part with the war chest that Houston will be demanding for the pick. Instead, it is reported that Atlanta will wait at six and take the best available offensive tackle to play on the right side. That leaves Jake Matthews in this scenario, who can also kick over to left tackle should Sam Baker get injured, or the team decides to move on from him.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Johnny Manziel** – Texas A&M – QB
In surprising turn of events, the Bucs appear to be in love with Manziel at number seven, and would be all too willing to snap him up. Manziel would complement the team’s rebranding well with his mercurial talent and personality. If Manziel is not available, the team is also reportedly interested in Blake Bortles as their 1-A option. They are also reportedly interested in Khalil Mack or an offensive tackle at seven, but in this scenario neither is an option at this point.
8. Minnesota Vikings: Blake Bortles* – Central Florida – QB
Indications are that the Vikings are looking for a new signal-caller, especially considering the three-headed monster they plodded through with last season. While the team believes that Zach Mettenberger is a great fit, Bortles looks to be too good of a selection in the first round especially, if he falls to them at eight. Like Mettenberger, Bortles brings a strong arm, but also better football acumen to the table. Anthony Barr is also a strong candidate in a trade-down scenario.
9. Buffalo Bills: Eric Ebron* – North Carolina – TE
The Bills are one of the teams that are reportedly clamoring for the services of Ebron, and likely would not hesitate to pull the trigger on him at nine. The team is also reportedly looking at trading up for Sammy Watkins, but would also consider Jake Matthews or Mike Evans at this pick. Ebron brings a dimension that the Bills have lacked under previous regimes: a dynamic receiving tight end.
10. Detroit Lions: Anthony Barr – UCLA – OLB
The Lions have proven in the past that they are willing to take the best available player on their board, regardless of what league perception is of that player, like Nick Fairly in 2011. Barr would fall under this category, as his stock has dipped in recent months due to being an incomplete player at this point, though loaded with potential. New defensive coordinator Teryl Austin has vowed to blitz more, and Barr gives the team that option from the linebacker position. Depending on whether the team moves Ndamukong Suh on draft night, the Lions could also target Sammy Watkins and/or Aaron Donald.
11. Tennessee Titans: Justin Gilbert – Oklahoma State – CB
After losing a string of Pro Bowl corners in off-seasons past, namely Cortland Finnegan and Alterraun Verner, the Titans will be looking for reinforcements. Gilbert not only can bring a long, physical presence to the secondary, similar to what Patrick Peterson gave Ken Wisenhunt in Arizona, but is a dynamic kick returner as well. The team is also looking for QB and RB help, but would get most value for these positions on day two.
12. New York Giants: Mike Evans** – Texas A&M – WR
With Hakeem Nicks’ decline in production and departure from the team, the Giants lack a legitimate receiving weapon outside of Victor Cruz, and if Evans falls to this spot he may be too good to pass up. Evans provides a more physical vertical presence that will complement Cruz’s speedy vertical ability nicely. The Giants would also consider Zack Martin here as well, and reports are that Taylor Lewan is off their radar due to character concerns.
13. St. Louis Rams: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix* – Alabama – FS
Indications are that at 13 the Rams are considering Zack Martin, Ryan Shazier, Taylor Lewan, and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. The Rams are thin at safety, and Clinton-Dix provides more value at this pick than Martin, whom I have rated lower than the Alabama safety. If Manziel falls this far St. Louis could be a surprise team to scoop him up.
14. Chicago Bears: Aaron Donald – Pittsburgh – DT
With the departure of undersized and athletic three-technique Henry Melton, Aaron Donald would appear to be the natural fit to replace him at 14 for the Bears. The Bears are supposedly interested in Dominique Easley and Timmy Jernigan here as well, but neither is quite the talent that is Donald.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Darqueze Dennard – Michigan State – CB
With an aging secondary, Dennard is the perfect infusion of youth into Dick LeBeau’s vaunted defensive scheme. Dennard has the physicality and tenacity that personifies Pittsburgh’s defense and will be a steady contributor immediately. Odell Beckham Jr. and Donte Moncrief are also options, but Pittsburgh can afford to wait until the second round to select from a deep crop of receivers.
16. Dallas Cowboys: Timmy Jernigan* – Florida State – DT
Though Dallas would love Aaron Donald, it’s tough to believe he will be available to them without trading up. However, Timmy Jernigan can fill a one-technique role with the Cowboys, similar to that of Stephen Paea who defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli coached in Chicago. The team also may look at a wide receiver to pair with Dez Bryant on the offensive side of the ball.
17. Baltimore Ravens: Zack Martin – Notre Dame – OT
Eric Ebron and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix are unavailable at 17, the Ravens will look to address the vacancy at right tackle that was left by the departure of Michael Oher. While Martin might be best suited at guard, He should provide a steady, gritty presence on right side of the line.
18. New York Jets: Odell Beckham Jr.* – LSU – WR
Beckham Jr.’s stock has been soaring the past week, as teams are reportedly becoming enamored with him and willing to trade up to get him. While he likely won’t be here at 18 as a team could easily trade up to get him, namely the 49ers, but in this scenario New York gets a young, capable receiver that they can pair up with Geno Smith.
19. Miami Dolphins: Kelvin Benjamin** – Florida State – WR
The Mike Wallace experience has not worked out well in Miami so far, and the Dolphins may be looking to protect their investment in him and in their young QB Ryan Tannehill. Drafting Benjamin will take coverage focus away from Wallace, and make life easier for Tannehill if Banjamin can improve his focus catching the ball.
20. Arizona Cardinals: Ryan Shazier* – Ohio State – OLB
A player compares very favorably to current Cardinals linebacker Daryl Washington, Shazier is a good fit for the Cardinals at 20. Undersized and athletic, Shazier is capable of dropping into coverage and rushing the passer from the outside. The Cards are also reportedly looking at adding a corner or a tight end, namely Eric EBron if they can move up for him.
21. Green Bay Packers: Calvin Pryor* – Louisville – SS
The Pack are looking to add plenty of speed on defense in the draft. While Shazier and Clinton-Dix are the two most likely candidates, Green Bay would not do too bad to settle with Calvin Pryor. If he can be coached up, Pryor can play with very good range and aggressiveness that also adds an intimidating presence in the back half.
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Brandin Cooks* – Colorado – WR
After releasing DeSean Jackson in the offseason, the Eagles are looking to find his replacement. Chip Kelly is a fan of familiar players from the Pac-12 and Brandin Cooks and Marqise Lee are vertical options out of the conference. Cooks has a lot of traits in common with Jackson and could make a seamless transition into his role.
23. Kansas City Chiefs: Marqise Lee* – USC – WR
The Chiefs would prefer to move down and draft another offensive linemen such as Xavier Su’a-Filo or a quarterback replacement to Alex Smith. Derek Carr has garnered the most buzz at QB, but if the Chiefs can’t move out of this spot, drafting a complement to Dwayne Bowe in Marqise Lee is not a horrible option.
24. Cincinnati Bengals: Bradley Roby* – Ohio State – CB
Naturally, the Bengals are most interested in Justin Gilbert and Darqueze Dennard, but it is unlikely that either of them fall to this point. Instead, Bradley Roby provides an excellent in-state option, especially considering the team’s inclination to overlook character concerns which Roby has accrued over the past year.
25. San Diego Chargers: Louis Nix III* – Notre Dame – NT
The Chargers have a huge need at nose tackle and huge Louis Nix provides a promising upgrade over incumbent Sean Lissemore. Word on who the Chargers are actually interested in is scarce out of San Diego, but the team is reportedly interested in Kyle Van Noy as well, but would be best served waiting until day two to select him.
26. Cleveland Browns: Teddy Bridgewater* – Louisville – QB
I’ve gone back and forth on which quarterback I’m projecting to the Browns at this pick, but Bridgewater appears to be the more likely option over Derek Carr at this stage. The Browns are interested in both players, but Bridgewater is a pro-ready player who provides little risk for a team that has been searching for a starting QB since they re-entered the league in 1999. The Browns are also looking to add a feature back as well, the most likely candidate being Carlos Hyde.
27. New Orleans Saints: Dee Ford – Auburn – OLB
Indications are that, like the Packers, the Saints are looking to add speed on defense. Ryan Shazier and Jimmie Ward are likely targets, but Dee Ford provides the most explosive option as a pass rusher to help upgrade on the outside. The team is also likely to go wide receiver at some point early in the draft, though day one seems a bit of a stretch.
28. Carolina Panthers: Morgan Moses – Virginia – OT
Panthers have two glaring holes on offense that need to be addressed: lifelong Panthers Steve Smith was released this offseason, and Jordan Gross recently retired. Indications are that the franchise is most interested in keeping Cam Newton upright than providing a dynamic pass catching target, which makes Morgan Moses the most likely target at 28. With depth at WR, the Panthers are in a good position to fill that need in round two, likely with Allen Robinson.
29. New England Patriots: Kony Ealy* – Missouri – DE
The Pats have three starters entering contract years along their defensive line, and this will likely be a position to upgrade through the draft. The team has been comfortable with Rob Ninkovich as a starter for a while now, but may be looking for a more athletic option in Kony Ealy. Ra’Shede Hageman is also a strong option at 29.
30. San Francisco 49ers: Donte Moncrief* – Mississippi – WR
The 49ers are rumored to be moving up into the upper half of the draft, especially considering they have more draft picks than open roster spots, and can afford to do so. The team is reported to be looking to move up for a wide receiver, specifically Odell Beckham Jr., but at this slot, Donte Moncrief is not a bad option to complement Michael Crabtree of the outside.
31. Denver Broncos: C.J. Mosley – Alabama – MLB
The Broncos are looking for physicality, and no college football team is more physical than the Alabama Crimson Tide. With a need at the middle linebacker spot, Mosley should be a no-brainer at this spot, given the very real possibility he falls this far due to durability concerns regarding most all Alabama players. Mosley provides an excellent run defending and coverage option next to Von Miller’s pass rushing aptitude.
32. Seattle Seahawks: Demarcus Lawrence* – Boise State – DE
The Seahawks have depth needs along both lines, and while they may be looking to trade down, they will likely go best player available to fill depth in round one. After failing to land Jared Allen in free agency, Demarcus Lawrence might be the Seahawks new target. Xavier Su’a-Filo or Joel Bitonio could also be a versatile offensive line addition in the first round.
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