Finally, after what has felt like a millennium, the 2014 NFL Draft is here. In mere days we will see where the best young American Football players in the world will be starting their career. But what is so surprising about this year’s draft is that so little is guaranteed. The team going first overall could still possibly pick at least five different players, or trade down; and after that is anyone’s guess.
When looking at my final mock NFL draft, please look at it as what I would do if I was picking for each team, instead of a prediction of what will actually happen. For one, I have decided to not include possible trades (you can find another mock I did with trades on twitter). Secondly, if the stories that have been circling for the past month are true (some of them inevitably will be), then some in the NFL have very different views on some prospects to me. If there is a player who you would like to learn more about after reading this article, make sure you check out Alex Sibo’s scouting reports, as well as the rest of Last Word On Sports’ NFL draft coverage.
1. Houston Texans- Khalil Mack, OLB
Since I had the Texans taking Mack in my March mock draft, there has been an increasing number of reports linking the Buffalo standout with Houston. I know there isn’t much substance to many of these reports, and the majority of people still expect the team to take Clowney, but don’t be surprised if a MAC-conference player is taken first overall for the second year in a row. Mack is an outstanding do-it-all edge player who is a better fit that Clowney for the Texans 3-4 defence, and has fewer question marks over him both on and off the field. With the likely hood of at least one of the top four QBs still being available at the top of the 2nd round increasing by the day, Mack is still the smartest pick for me at number one.
2. St Louis Rams- Jake Mathews, OT
If Mack goes first overall, expect lots of teams to be interested in trade up to grab Clowney, Watkins, or one of the top tackles or quarterbacks. But if a trade doesn’t materialise, offensive tackle makes the most sense to me. They still need a guard and a tackle, and the team will be better off if they play Rodger Saffold at guard instead of tackle. As a result the pick boils down to Jake Mathews and Greg Robinson. Although Robinson has the higher potential, and is a better run blocker, Mathews is a better all-round player right now. And with Sam Bradford in the final year of his rookie contract, giving him the best chances this season with a strong offensive line is their top priority, he would be the best pick for the Rams here.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars- Johnny Manziel, QB
It would be tough for Gus Bradley to pass on Jadaveon Clowney in this spot. But after revamping the defensive line in free agency, a QB is the top need heading into the draft. Although Teddy Bridgewater is my top QB, Manziel is not far behind. Considering the franchises desperation for success and excitement to try to improve attendance and popularity Manziel edges it here for me. Besides, you don’t say someone is a perfect fit for your team for nothing.
4. Cleveland Browns- Teddy Bridgewater, QB
Heading into the draft, the browns are looking for starters at QB, ILB, CB, OG and WR. Their strategy here depends on what they perceive to be the biggest need, and which players they like the most. In my mind, answers to those questions are QB and Teddy Bridgewater. I cannot fathom how an NFC executive has Bridgewater as a “fourth-round guy” (report by Charlie Campbell of Walter Football). For me he is a fantastic pro-ready quarterback who would make a great addition to the Browns.
5. Oakland Raiders- Sammy Watkins, WR
After what turned out to be a decent free agency in which the picked up a large number of solid players, the Raiders will be looking for dynamic playmakers who can give them a spark in the draft, especially on offence. Sammy Watkins would provide a game-changing ability which would really help the Raiders and whoever is their QB in 2014.
6. Atlanta Falcons- Jadaveon Clowney, DE
This the Falcons dream scenario. Although they could easily take Greg Robinson to shore up their offensive line, the Falcons representatives would probably sprint to the podium if Clowney was still available here. Their pass rush was one of the worst in the league in 2013, and it needs to improve if they are to have a chance at stopping Cam Newton and Drew Brees twice a year. He may have some off-the-field questions, but Clowney’s athletic ability and 2012 production cannot be overlooked.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Mike Evans, WR
There is only one position the Buccaneers can look at with their first pick- wide receiver. They have filled most of their other needs through free agency, and they lack receiving options after trading away Mike Williams. Although some may be disappointed that Sammy Watkins is off the board, Mike Evans is a fantastic consolation prize. Despite weighing over 230 lbs and having the highest vernicle range of any receiver in the class, he still averages over 7.5 yards after the catch, over 2 yards more than both Brandin Cooks and Odell Beckham.
8. Minnesota Vikings- Derek Carr, QB
Although a linebacker could be taken here, the Vikings top need is still a QB. If they are to complete in the NFC North year-in, year-out, they have to find QB who can win them games if Adrian Peterson is not at his best, and Matt Cassel does not fit the brief. Derek Carr may not be to everyone’s taste with questions over his long ball accuracy, decision making under pressure and rarely mentioned small hands (smaller Bridgewater, who has hands the size of David Moyes’ reputation if you believe all the talk from NFL scouts); but his arm talent, game knowledge and production speaks for itself.
9. Buffalo Bills- Greg Robinson, OL
Greg Robinson is another player who will not fall this far on Thursday, but I could not find a place for him any earlier in my mock. I can see the Bills trading up for Robinson in the right situation, as he perfectly fits what they need to help upgrade the offensive line. Robinson could play either at guard (it was clear that they missed Andy Levitre last year) or right tackle (where an upgrade over Erik Peters is needed), and would be a great asset wherever he is played with almost unmatched physical ability and top-notch run blocking.
10. Detroit Lions- Anthony Barr, OLB
After picking up Golden Tate in free agency, I expect the Lions to go defence with their first round pick for the fourth time since 2010. Although upgrading their secondary would not be a bad idea here, Anthony Barr is better than any corner or safety available. Although his best fit would be as a 3-4 outside linebacker, he could also become a great 4-3 weak side linebacker if used correctly. He has great upside and has already shown an ability to cause a lot of trouble in just two years at the position
11. Tennessee Titans- Darqueze Dennard, CB
After losing Alterraun Verner in free agency, the Titans are looking for a new starting corner across from Jason McCourty, and 2013 3rd round pick Blidi Wreh-Wilson isn’t the answer. Dennard on the other hand is, allowing less that 9% of passes over 20 yards thrown towards him to be completed. One top of being a great, physical cover corner, Dennard also impressed at the combine with a faster than expected 4.41 40 yard dash.
12. New York Giants- Eric Ebron, TE
After losing both Hakeem Nicks and Bradon Myers, the Giants need to improve the quality of Eli Manning’s supporting cast through the draft if he is to recover after a poor season last year. Ebron is the best ‘receiver’ available, with the ability to cause a lot of trouble for opposing defences over the middle of the field.
13. St Louis Rams- Hasean Clinton-Dix, FS
After getting an offensive tackle with the second overall pick, it makes sense for the Rams to go defence at 13. Aaron Donald may be in play here, and would fill the only hole on the Rams otherwise strong defensive line. If not him, I expect them to target the secondary, and the best player available is ‘Haha’ Clinton-Dix. He is outstanding in coverage, and would immediately boost St. Louis pass defence in the toughest division in the league right now.
14. Chicago Bears- CJ Mosley, LB
You only need three words to sum up the Bears plan for this year’s draft- defence, defence, defence. There are a number of players who they could take here, but the best is CJ Mosley. He has the around talent to play any linebacker position in a 4-3 defence, and is an excellent focal point to rebuild the unit around.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers- Justin Gilbert, CB
With a number of holes to be filled, the Steelers could go offensive or defensive line, wide receiver or linebacker with their first round pick. But their most pressing need is a cornerback, where a replacement for the declining and aging Ike Taylor needs to be found (he gave up more yards than any other corner in the league last year). Justin Gilbert should be an immediate upgrade, as well as offer a dynamic spark in the return game.
16. Dallas Cowboys- Aaron Donald, DT
After losing their best defensive tackle from 2013 in free agency, the Cowboys need to upgrade the interior of their d-line even more than they did at the end of the year. Luckily, Aaron Donald is a perfect fit for the Cowboys defensive scheme as a 3-technique lineman, and despite being undersized has incredible pass rushing ability which the worst defence in the league desperately needs.
The second half can be found here.
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