It seems the Los Angeles Dodgers enter 2014 as the consensus World Series favorite. With a potent lineup and a deep pitching staff, most are predicting this team to dominate the weak NL West. While they are clearly head-and-shoulders above the rest of their division, they are not without their flaws. Are they a great team? Yes. A World Series Winner, or even contestant? Maybe not.
Their pitching staff, one through five, is stellar. Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball. Zack Greinke himself once held that title and is as good a number two as any. Hyun-Jin Ryu did nothing but impress in his first stateside season. Dan Haren has been a major disappointment the past two seasons, but he looked good in the second half last year and could be poised for a rebound. Paul Maholm is consistently adequate, which is more than most teams can say about their fifth starter. With Josh Beckett expected back in mid-April and Chad Billingsley returning from Tommy John surgery in early May, this team was little to worry about in its rotation.
Much of the same can be said about the Dodgers’ bullpen, which is perhaps the best in baseball. Closer Kenley Jansen is supported by righty Chris Withrow and lefty Paco Rodriguez, both of whom were lights out last season in their age 24 and 22 seasons, respectively. The rejuvenated Brian Wilson looked electric in 13 innings down the stretch last season. Don Mattingly has no shortage of lights-out late-inning options.
It’s around the diamond where the Dodgers ought to worry. In the infield, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez remains a potent hitter, but no longer the feared slugger he was in San Diego or Boston. Hanley Ramirez staged a brilliant comeback last season, hitting .345/.402/.639 with 20 homers and 10 steals in just 86 games. If he can return to his 2006-2010 self, when he hit .313 and averaged 25 homers and 40 steals, he could make a serious run for the NL MVP award. Or he could revert to 2011-2012 form, when he hit a combined .251/.326/.416.
Second base, third base and catcher, however, are a different story. Scouts are divided on whether second baseman Alex Guerrero will be able to hold his own in the majors, on both offense and defense. The 27-year-old Cuban import is slated to start the season at Triple-A, with some combination of out-machine Dee Gordon, the equally awful Chone Figgins, who is 10 years Gordon’s senior, and the uninspiring Justin Turner manning the keystone in the meantime. At third, Juan Uribe put up a 4.2 WAR season in 2013 thanks to even-better-than-usual glove work, but his age (34) and career .299 on-base percentage suggest he is due for some serious regression.
Behind the plate, A.J. Ellis had a disappointing season. Ellis hit .238/.318/.364, a far cry from his .270/.373/.414 performance in 2012. His a solid minor league track record suggests his 2012 wasn’t a fluke, but as a catcher on the wrong side of 30 he faces an uphill battle in returning to form.
That brings us to the outfield. With Matt Kemp still hurt, the team is slated to start Carl Crawford in left, Andre Ethier in centre and Yasiel Puig in right. Once among the most exciting players in the game, Crawford has been a league-average player at best through the first three years of his seven-year, $142 million contract. Andre Ethier’s career has been marred with inconsistency, and he is in over his head as a centrefielder.
Images of a young Vladimir Guerrero come to mind in Yasiel Puig, last year’s rookie sensation. Puig, however, is still a raw talent. He’s fast, but he’s a brutal baserunner, having ran into a league-leading 11 outs last season and stealing just 11 bases in 19 attempts. He’s got great range and a cannon of an arm, but as Game 6 of the NLCS showed, he’s prone to serious mental lapses. The talent is certainly there, but it’s up to him what he, and the Dodgers, will get out of it.
As for Kemp, he remains the wildcard. He is eligible to come off the DL on April 4, creating a serious logjam in the Dodgers’ expensive outfield. Still, they aren’t paying him $20 million a year to sit on the bench – if he’s healthy, it’ll likely be at Ethier’s expense. How well he’ll play, however, remains to be seen. Like Ethier, his career has been extremely inconsistent, albeit with a much higher ceiling. The Dodgers had best hope he returns to his 2011, MVP-calibur form.
Overall, this is likely the best Dodgers team in years, but its top-heavy-at-best, disaster-at-worst offense and poor defense put it far behind Washington and St. Louis as the best team in the NL. They may not be 2013’s Blue Jays, but they won’t be the Red Sox either.
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