Since the all-star break, the Raptors have had a couple close games against teams they may face in the first round come playoff time. They have had two games against Washington, and one against Chicago. From a fan perspective, the last two games against Chicago and Washington have both felt like playoff games, with the Raptors just falling short in both. Coming up on March 10th, the Raptors will face another potential playoff opponent, as they will battle Brooklyn in their final meeting between the two teams this season.
After watching the triple overtime thriller against Washington and looking ahead at Toronto’s schedule, I found myself wondering; if I’m the Raptors, who would I want to face in the first round come playoff time? What is the ideal Raptors Playoff Matchup?
Chicago Bulls
Season Matchup: 2-2
After watching the last matchup on February 19, where Chicago won 94-92, I thought to myself that Chicago would be the toughest matchup for Toronto if they met in the first round. They are tough team, with playoff experience and are well-coached.
On paper, Chicago’s front line has the advantage, as Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson, and Carlos Boozer seem to be an upgrade over Jonas Valanciunas, Amir Johnson and Patrick Patterson. However, in the three games that this trio has played against Chicago, the Raptors are 2-1, combining for an average of 30.3 points per game, with Chicago’s frontline line averaging 27.6 points during the same three games. You could argue the come playoff time, the experience of the Bulls front line would prevail, but taking a quick look at the numbers, Toronto’s front line appears to matchup quite well.
The other key matchup would be the two guard spot with Jimmy Butler up against Demar Derozan. Butler has the reputation of being a solid defensively and will usually guard the best perimeter player on the opposing team. We all saw proof of this a couple weeks ago, when Butler stopped Derozan on the game winning attempt in the final seconds of their 94-92 win.
But does anyone remember that Derozan scored 32 points in that game? When looking at the four games against Butler this season, Demar is averaging 23.8 PPG, with a .465 FG%. Taking a closer look makes me think that the Raptors two guard will do just fine against Butler if they meet in the playoffs.
On a side note, I also wouldn’t bank on D.J Augustin providing 19 points off the bench over a seven game series.
Verdict: Chicago does have that veteran savvy that would make them a tough out, but I think Toronto would be up to the challenge and would defeat Chicago in seven.
Washington Wizards
Season Matchup: 3-1
Although Toronto has had great success this season against Washington, the Wizards due possess John Wall; who is the type of player that could win a playoff series on his own. So far this season Toronto has had no answer for the all-star guard as he is averaging 25.3 PPG against the Raptors. As we saw last game, the Raptors also had a hard time guarding the Marcin Gortat, as he went off for 31 points.
When looking at these two teams, the starting line-ups match up well and I would consider that come playoff time, the starting five on both teams will cancel each other out. What this series would come down to is the production of their second units.
Advantage Raptors. Although Andre Miller is a nice backup for John Wall, he’s 37 years old and is the only real bench player the Wizards have at the moment. With the rotations tightening up during the playoffs, I believe that Patterson, Salmons & Vasquez is a clear upgrade over the aging Miller, Harrington and Webster.
Verdict: Although the Wizards have the one player who could win you a series, I just feel that the seven or eight man rotation of the Toronto Raptors would make the difference. Toronto moves on to the second round in six.
Brooklyn Nets
Season Matchup: 2-1
If not for a Patrick Patterson steal, the Raptors would have two losses against the Nets this season. The Nets roster is made up of veterans that have won playoff championships, played in big games, and are playoff tested.
If you take away the Raptors 16-point-win on January 11th, in which Brooklyn was without Deron Williams and Kevin Garnett, the other two games played this season have both been decided by two points or less. Chances are that come playoff time, much will be same between these two teams as every game would probably come down to the wire. Therein lies the one problem for the Raptors; lack of playoff experience.
The Brooklyn Nets starting line-up of Williams, Johnson, Pierce, Garnett, and Plumlee have a total of 387 playoff games played. For the Raptors, their starting line-up of Lowry, Derozan, Ross, Johnson and Valanciunas have a total of only 24 games played. With the Nets having a 363 playoff game advantage, their experience would likely be a difference maker in a seven games series.
The Raptors have one final game against the Nets this season on March 10th. If they can pull out a convincing win, it could go a long way to help their confidence if these two teams matchup in the first round.
Verdict: Although Toronto is younger and more athletic, if they meet the Nets in the first round, chances are they lose out in seven. Every game in the series would be tight and generally the more experienced team prevails.
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