Since I was a lad of just 11 years old, I’ve been predicting football games. I believe watching Jimmy “The Greek” on CBS’ NFL Today inspired my interest in prognostication. I started with the NFL and added college football just a couple years later. My dad and I had a ritual of picking the games every Friday night and keeping track of our records. He passed away in 2004, but I cherish those Friday night chats as just a small part of our relationship and have carried on the tradition to this day. For the past three years I’ve posted my college football predictions on my YouTube channel and home page markrogerstv.com. While posting my selections on-line, I’ve enjoyed a pretty good run of what I call “confidence picks.” This year my record is 20-13 against the spread. Since 2011, I’ve hit on 66 of 100 (66.0%). I hope you enjoy this week’s Top 25 predictions. I would love to hear your take on the games as well.
2013 Record:
193-31 Straight
118-106 ATS
20-13 Confidence Picks vs the spread
(+49) Chattanooga over Alabama
If you’ve seen my video posts, you know I hate selecting these garbage games. It’s a total guess as to who’s going to be in the game in the fourth quarter, how hard they’re going to be trying and if the play calling will “take the air out of the ball” or “go for the jugular.” Bama 48-6.
(-57) Florida State over Idaho
The Jameis Winston story grows by the hour. Seminoles could be distracted. Fortunately, for them, their schedule more than compensates for that. FSU 67-6.
(+34.5) Indiana over Ohio State
Buckeyes have been trying to prove a point. The voters aren’t buying it against the bottom of the Big Ten. Illinois put up 35 points. Indiana, despite last week’s effort vs Wisconsin, has more fire power than the Illini. Buckeyes win big, but not huge… 55-27.
(-20.5) Oregon over Arizona
Stanford has cleared the way for the Ducks to win the Pac 12. When does Oregon not push the throttle? Wildcats defense is questionable. Ducks roll on the road 52-27.
(+40) Citadel over Clemson
See Bama-Chattanooga summary. Coin flip. Clemson 49-10.
(-32.5) Stanford over Cal
It’s not in David Shaw or the Cardinal’s makeup to run up the score. Cal is just that bad. “The Game” will be no game. Stanford 45-10.
(+34.5) Coastal Carolina over South Carolina
Gamecocks tend to cruise in these type matchups. Steve Spurrier will be watching the scoreboard (Missouri-Ole Miss) more than this game. Gamecocks 48-17.
***(-7) Michigan State over Northwestern
Wildcats are in free fall with six straight losses. It’s always risky taking Sparty to cover points on the road. The offense is improving, but still pedestrian. Call this one 24-13.
(+32.5) New Mexico over Fresno State
Bulldogs keep their BCS hopes alive 44-16.
(-16) Wisconsin over Minnesota.
Two 8-2 Big Ten teams, and the home team is a huge underdog. Gophers are a great story and have shown legitimate improvement. Badgers are dominant at times on both sides of the ball and will feast on Minnesota’s one dimensional offense. Badgers 42-20.
(-23) Louisville over Memphis
Cardinals still kicking themselves for losing to Central Florida. Take it out on Tigers, 48-17.
(+4.5) Oklahoma over Kansas State
Sooners aren’t very good on offense and Trevor Knight will get the start over the injuried Blake Bell at QB. Oklahoma without some other starters on both sides of the ball. K-State played the conference’s two heavyweights (Baylor & Oklahoma State) better than anyone else. Wildcats 27-24.
(-22) USC over Colorado
Trojans may suffer hangover from Stanford win. Buffs are on the rise under Mike MacIntyre. 60 minutes of football is plenty of time for SC to shake the cobwebs. Trojans 45-20.
***(+4.5) Texas A&M over LSU
Could turn out to be the most entertaining game of the weekend. Tigers handed Johnny Football the most humbling outing of his career last season (27 rushing yards, 3 sacks, 3 INT). Those defensive starters, however, are mostly gone. Aggies can’t stop anyone and Tigers are much more explosive in the passing game than last year’s unit. Manziel’s feet will make the difference although forecasted rain would tilt the field toward Jeremy Hill and the Tigers’ ground and pound. A&M 38-37.
(-2.5) Missouri over Ole Miss
Tigers playing for the SEC East. Rebels playing for bowl slotting. Ole Miss has shown up against every good team on the schedule (Texas, LSU, Texas A&M, Auburn) except Bama. James Franklin back at QB for the Tigers. This should be a barn-burner. Mizzou 34-31.
(-2.5) Arizona State over UCLA
This game is enormous in determining the Pac-12 South winner. Hard for me to pick against Jim Mora and Brett Hundley, but Taylor Kelly is having a great season under the radar and Sun Devils are stacked on defense. ASU 31-27.
(-9.5) Baylor over Oklahoma State
Bears biggest challenge of the season. This isn’t a typically explosive Mike Gundy team though. Clint Chelf is completing only 53 percent of his passes and the backfield, with Roland and Smith, is not dynamic. OSU defense will put up a fight, and Bears are without WR Tevin Reese (eight TDs) and, possibly, Lache Seastrunk (888 Rush Yards, 11 TDs). Bears 45-30.
Michigan State, Wisconsin are Undervalued
Michigan State and Wisconsin are under valued. While its difficult for the BCS to ignore major conference undefeated teams, the system picks and chooses one loss teams to include in the mix. Pollsters put in their rankings, then the BCS computers add together their stats, and finally the BCS rankings are released. These rankings shape national media group think and again get reflected in the polls (including the coaches poll, do you really think all college football coaches have seen every game?). Public perception follows. The Big Ten isn’t fairing so well in either category these days so the Spartans and Badgers are paying the price.In September, Wisconsin was robbed of the opportunity to kick a game-winning field goal at Arizona State; losing 32-30. A couple weeks later, the Badgers played a score behind the Buckeyes most of the night and lost a hard fought game in Columbus, 31-24. Two losses, especially for a Big Ten team, spells immediate dismissal from what is considered the nation’s elite.
Wisconsin has since dominated its schedule. The most recent display of Badger muscle was a 51-3 pounding of Indiana on Saturday which included a typically large portion of Wisconsin ground game with 554 yards rushing. While the offensive line comes equipped with the road-graders we’ve come accostomed to in Madison, the backfield is fleet. Melvin Gordon and James White can go the distance at any time and often do. Both backs have eclipsed 1,000 yards with a combined 24 rushing TD’s. Gordon’s 8.4 yards per carry often requires a second look at the stat sheet. As usual, Wisconsin’s pass game continues to marvel no one. Joel Stave is improved as a sophomore with 16 TD’s vs eight interceptions, while the Badgers continue to search for a second option to Jared Abbrederis (54 Rec, 6 TD). No other wide receiver has caught more than nine passes. Tight End Jacob Pederson’s 27 receptions are half of Abbrederis’ output. The defense is underrated; ranking fifth in the nation in points against (14.6).
Despite ripping off eight wins vs just two losses, disclaimed above, the Badgers just snuck into the Top 25 after Week 11. In a system that typically rewards dominance second only to scheduling, Wisconsin should be greater appreciated. No, the schedule has not been stellar. But again, credit the Badgers for going to the desert and playing a strong Sun Devil team and putting a scare into the nation’s third ranked team. Wisconsin is the poster child for the Big Ten’s plodding perception and inferiority. Recent history, though, warns us to not be stunned when the Badgers compete, if not defeat, a quality postseason opponent.
Then there’s the case for Michigan State. The Spartans dug their grave in South Bend with six, mostly questionable, pass interference calls that largely contributed to a 17-13 defeat. Also note that current starter, Connor Cook, was pulled for the final drive in favor of 2012 starter Andrew Maxwell. Cook, respectfully, commented after the game that he would’ve led a game-winning drive against the Irish. Of course, we’ll never know. Cook can point to last season’s Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl as evidence to back his claim; a 17-16 win over TCU. Regardless, Cook’s insertion into the lineup has sparked ol’ Sparty.
Let’s not confuse this ariel assault with other green clad contingents at Oregon or Baylor. Michigan State’s developing passing game is more effecient than explosive. Cook’s five 200-yard passing efforts in eight games far outweighs Maxwell’s two similar efforts in the last seven games of 2012. Cook has also tacked on five points on the completion percentage while his 14-3 TD to Interception ratio far exceeds Maxwell’s 13-9 showing last season. The drastic improvement of the Michigan State receiving core cannot be discounted. This group gained much acclaim for consistently dropping the football last season, and early in 2013. Mark Dantonio’s public challenges supported increased work and dedication in practice. Bennie Fowler, Macgarrett Kings Jr, Tony Lippett and Keith Mumphery won’t wow you with gawdy numbers, but Michigan State fans remember what the passing game looked like just weeks ago, and appreciate the improvement.
On the ground, Jeremy Langford has emerged from a long list of early season candidates to become MSU’s next Le’Veon Bell. Langford pounded Nebraska for 151 yards on 32 carries. Mark Dantonio likes one workhorse to rely on, and he’s found his man. Langford is knocking on the door of a 1,000 yard season after five consecutive 100-yard games to go along with 13 rushing TD’s.
We talk all offense because the defense is a given. The nation’s #1 rushing and total defense gives up just 57 yards per game on the ground at 2.1 yards per clip. More importantly, the Spartans give up just 13.2 points per game; fourth best in the country. It all adds up to 9-1 against a marginal schedule with Northwestern (4-6), Minnesota (8-2) and a possible date with Ohio State (10-0) in the Big Ten Championship Game still ahead. And before knocking the Spartans’ schedule, look around College Football, very few teams play more than a couple decent opponents. This team will challenge anybody in postseason play with a physical rushing game, legitimate Top Ten defense, and at least a threat of some plays in the passing game. Michigan State should be recognized as a Top Ten team right now.
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