You could argue this is the biggest game in ACC history. It’s just the fourth time two teams from the conference have met with both ranked in the top five. Both quarterbacks are in the Heisman discussion, and both defenses are in the top tier nationally. No matter which team wins on the field, the conference and college football fans have already won, because this should be a fantastic game.
When The Seminoles Have The Ball
Florida State’s Jameis Winston has become this year’s Johnny Football. A redshirt freshman who plays with the poise and decision-making ability of an upperclassman, Winston has thrown for 1,441 yards and 17 TDs, compared with just 2 INTs. He’s also rushed for 135 yards and 2 TDs, but most of the running is left to the running backs. Offensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt has three quality backs at his disposal in Devonta Freeman, Karlos Williams, and James Wilder, Jr. The three have combined for 843 yards and 11 TDs thus far. Between the running backs and Winston, the experience of the offensive line has shown thus far. Two years ago, the line had been so subpar that several starters were replaced with underclassman for the Champs Sports Bowl. (The Seminoles eked out a 28-27 win over Notre Dame). The decision was questioned at the time, but it’s looking like a good one now.
The receiving corps is equally capable, with Kenny Shaw, Kelvin Benjamin, Rashad Greene and Nick O’Leary combining for 1,304 yards and 16 TDs. Those number are phenomenal, especially when you consider that Florida State has only played five games. (Seriously. I just checked three different sources to make sure that was correct.)
Clemson’s defense was their weakness last year. That’s no longer the case. Head coach Dabo Swinney told ESPN this week that the Tigers don’t have that many different players on the defense; the difference is experience. So far this season Clemson ranks 10th in points allowed, compared to 47th last season; they’re second in sacks with 24, and tied for ninth in INTs with 10 through six games, compared with 13 in the entire 2012 season. Winning the turnover battle with the ‘Noles will be key, and Clemson will have to do what no defense has been able to do yet- confuse Jameis Winston, and bait him into poor decisions. Given the relative weakness of Clemson’s schedule (outside of the season opener against Georgia, that is), I wouldn’t be surprised if the coaching staff has some “special” fronts and packages they’ve been saving for this game. Keep an eye on junior defensive tackle Vic Beasley, who leads the nation with nine sacks.
When Clemson Has The Ball
Overall, these teams are somewhat similar on offense. Quarterback Tajh Boyd is a true dual-threat who’s gotten good protection and good blocking, both when he hands off and when he scrambles. Both teams have 11 rushing TDs. this season, although Boyd is responsible for more of them (five) than Winston is. Clemson has two more passing TDs, but that’s to be expected with a senior quarterback versus even a preternaturally talented redshirt freshman. The Tigers have a ton of depth in the receiving corps; Sammy Watkins and Martavis Bryant have four and three TDs respectively, but there are another NINE players with one or two receiving TDs this season (granted, I’m sure some of them are second- and even third-stringers who had those catches in garbage time) Really, the only stat where the two teams are drastically different is rushing yards per game, where Clemson ranks 65th compared to Florida State’s 17th. Boyd is the main rushing threat in the red zone, but Roderick McDowell, Zac Brooks, and C.J. Davidson have combined for 694 yards and 6 TDs to date.
Given that Florida State ranks 3rd nationally in points allowed, this won’t be an easy game for the Tigers’ offense. One thing they have going for them is that the ‘Noles defense lost a handful of its most experienced players to the NFL last spring. Boyd’s escapability provides a challenge for any defense, but one thing Florida State could try is going to a nickel defense and using the extra DB as a spy on Boyd. Good assignment football is going to be key, regardless of the package, because if a blown coverage leaves a man open downfield, chances are Boyd is going to see it and exploit it. But while Boyd may be the biggest threat to run the ball, he’s not the only one- the run defense will have to be stout as well. The Seminoles have just six INTs on the year, but if they could force a couple-or a fumble or two- it would go a long way toward giving them a chance to win.
Prediction
This should be an edge-of-your-seat, go-either-way type of game. While it’s tempting to pick Clemson because of their experience level and home field, I actually lean toward Florida State because of Jameis Winston’s inexperience in these types of games. You know how sometimes young players almost don’t seem to realize that they should be nervous or overwhelmed, especially on the road? I see Winston having that type of attitude and that type of game. Florida State 21, Clemson 17
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