Will Georgia end the weekend with two losses and have to kiss its BCS hopes goodbye? Or will LSU suffer its first loss, making the Tigers’ November match-up with Alabama that much more important?
When LSU Has The Ball
Since returning from an early-season suspension, sophomore Jeremy Hill has been the bell cow at running back. Hill has rushed for 350 yards, is averaging 8.3 yards per carry, and is tied with WR Jarvis Landry for the team lead in TDs with six. Kenny Hilliard, Alfred Blue, and Terrence Magee are all capable backs as well. But the big story for LSU this season has been quarterback play. Now under the tutelage of Cam Cameron, Zach Mettenberger hasn’t looked like the same player this season- and that’s a good thing. After throwing for 12 TDs (and seven INTs) all last season, Mettenberger has already thrown 10 TD passes and just one pick. Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry have already combined for over 700 receiving yards and all 10 receiving TDs.
With the Bulldogs giving up nearly 250 yards per game through the air, expect LSU to air it out early and often. Getting pressure on Mettenberger will be key, as the Bulldogs’ secondary is fairly green. The run defense is more stout, but they haven’t faced a run game like LSU’s yet, either.
One interesting thing to note about this game is that Mettenberger was originally a Bulldog. He was dismissed from Georgia as a freshman, went to junior college, and then transferred to LSU. Not only that, Mettenberger grew up a Bulldogs fan, and his mom works in football operations at the school. (I caught the end of a discussion on Mike and Mike this morning about the situation, and apparently UGA gave Mrs. Mettenberger this week off).
When Georgia Has The Ball
Despite an early schedule that was one of the toughest in the country, the Bulldogs are averaging over 500 yards and 40 points per game. Quarterback Aaron Murray is a fifth-year senior, and he has six receivers at his disposal with at least 100 yards on the season, as well as six different receivers with at least one TD. There are also five different players with at least one rushing TD, although everyone should know by now that Todd Gurley (377 yards, 4 TDs) and Keith Marshall (117 yards, 1 TD) are the primary threats in the run game. Keep an eye also on freshman Reggie Davis, who scored a school-record 98-yard TD last week on his first collegiate catch.
If LSU’s front seven can get some pressure on Murray, maybe make him rush some throws, there’s no reason they can’t snag an INT or two. Stopping the run, after allowing 213 yards to Auburn last week, is likely a bigger concern for the Tigers. Expect defensive coordinator John Chavis to have a good game plan, though. He’s one of the best in the business.
Another thing to keep an eye on in this game, moreso than usual, is special teams. The Dawgs had a couple of special-teams mistakes against North Texas last weekend, and of course you never know when Les Miles will call some sort of fake or trick play.
Prediction:
I’ve gone back and forth on this game all week. It could go either way, but I’m going to say Georgia 30, LSU 28
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