Did everyone forget that a week ago that the Jets were being predicted as one of the WORST teams in the NFL? All of a sudden the Jets pull out a lucky win (Tampa Bay gave it to them with a DUMB 15-yard penalty), the Patriots play a terrible game, and people are acting like New York has a chance in this game.
….
Ok, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a liiiiiittle worried heading into this game.
As far as last week is concerned, I’ll usually be writing a follow-up piece for each Pats game, but a completely inexcusable East Coast heat wave coupled with a short week has left me dehydrated, flustered and off my game a little bit. Long story short, the Patriots did exactly what they had to (play terrible, turn the ball over, and suffer injuries) to lose a game – but they didn’t. Props to the Bills and their crowd for making it a ballgame; but a win is a win.
On to this week; let’s break this down the only way we know how: head-to-head.
Quarterback: Geno Smith balled out on Sunday and led the Jets to an unlikely win over Tampa Bay. Tom Brady played like absolute garbage versus Buffalo. He seemed uneasy in the pocket, fumbled the ball going in from the one-yard line, and didn’t seem to be on page with any of his wide receivers (except Danny Amendola, who as of this writing, is ‘expected‘ to not play). I’ve never seen Brady play two bad games in a row versus inferior opponents, so a bounce back performance is something I’m banking on.
Advantage: Patriots
Running Back: The Jets got NOTHING going on the ground against Tampa Bay last week. They had 90 rushing yards, 47 of which came from Geno Smith. Chris Ivory had 15 yards on ten carries, and Bilal Powell didn’t fare much better, totaling 29 yards on 12 attempts – this doesn’t project to improve against a vastly improved Patriots run defense that held CJ Spiller to 41 yards.
The Patriots suffered a HUGE loss with Shane Vereen, who was placed on the IR with intent to return. The earliest we’ll see Vereen again is week 11 in Carolina.
Fear not! Believe it or not, Stevan Ridley is still a good football player. Yes he put the ball on the ground last week, and didn’t see the field after it, but this hasn’t effected him negatively in the past. Patriots’ beat writer Field Yates threw out an awesome stat earlier today: “In 4 games following fumbles in 2012, Ridley averaged 17.75 carries. In other 12 games, he averaged 18.25 carries.”
The point being, expect a full workload out of Ridley tonight. He ran well against the Jets last year, totaling 162 yards and a TD in two games. He’ll flirt with another 100-yard performance in this one.
Advantage: Patriots
Wide Receiver: The Jets wide receiving core (Jeremy Kerley, Stephen Hill & Santonio Holmes) posted a paltry 94 receiving yards vs. the Bucs. The Patriots faired much better, putting up 225 yards from Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman and Kenbrell Thompkins vs. Buffalo. As of now Amendola (Brady’s favorite target in week one) isn’t playing, so that certainly throws a wrench into things. Aaron Dobson is expected back against the Jets, so that will undoubtedly help this battered receiving core, but by no means gives an advantage.
Advantage: Even
Tight End: The corpse of Kellen Winslow went off in week one, racking up 79 yards and a TD. Is his resurgence real? I certainly don’t THINK so, but crazier things have happened. He had a strong preseason and looks like he might be reviving his career. Rob Gronkowski isn’t expected to play (and he shouldn’t), leaving Zach Sudfeld as the Patriots best option at the tight end position. Sudfeld was wildly unimpressive in week one, and I’m VERY concerned about his play. I’m really hoping that his preseason play wasn’t just a reflection of… preseason play. Can’t believe it but…
Advantage: Jets
Offensive Line: The Patriots have a better offensive line than most teams in the NFL. I expect them to dominate the line of scrimmage vs. a severely overmatched Jets defensive front.
Advantage: Patriots
Defensive Line: The Jets best defensive lineman is third year man Muhammad Wilkerson, who all but guaranteed a win against the Pats. At the end of the day, he’s only ‘kind of’ good, and the Patriots d-line looked strong against Buffalo. Patriots win this one on talent alone.
Advantage: Patriots
Linebacker: Rex Ryan‘s strong suit is getting the most out of his linebacking cores. Having said that, he’s boasting the least talented group of linebackers in his career with the tandem of and Calvin Pace. The Patriots have a much better unit with Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes, and Dont’a Hightower.
Advantage: Patriots
Defensive Backs: GOOD LORD did I underestimate how BAD this Patriots secondary is. They consistently were out of position on Sunday, and even managed to drop interceptions when they got their hands on the ball. The Patriots cornerbacks are their best assets, but get ZERO safety help – every passing play could blow up into a wide-open touchdown. The Jets have one of the best cover corners in the league in Antonio Cromartie, and have a great young player in first round pick Dee Milliner from Alabama. Add in nickel corner Kyle Wilson and it’s already a landslide advantage in New York’s favor.
Advantage: Jets
The Patriots are a better team. Two uncharacteristic week one performances have people believing the Jets could come into New England and steal a win. I don’t see it. Tom Brady shines in prime time broadcasts and the Patriots play very well at home. Tom Brady is fighting mad (seriously, he challenged me to a fist fight the other night at a local 7-11 when I asked his opinion on what flavor Combos I should get) and he’ll be looking to set an example with the young Patriots offense. It’s supposed to pour tonight, and there might even be heavy thunderstorms. (Side Note: After the Broncos-Ravens delay, could this mean the game gets postponed? I really hope not because I’m going to be at the game, and I’m going to get kid-who-can’t-get-a-toy-at-the-store-mad if I spend fifty bucks on parking and walk a half hour into the stadium only to walk right back out soaking wet with a day of work staring me right in the face). If the t-storms can hold off, Brady plays great in bad-weather games, and the Patriots offense is built to control the clock.
Prediction: New England over New York 21-10
Previous Week’s Prediction: New England over Buffalo 31-17
Actual outcome: New England (1-0) over Buffalo (0-1) 23-21
Season Prediction Record: 1-0
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