Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

June 28, 2013 By  Hockey, NHL

Why the Leafs Should Avoid the Trade Market

If patience is a virtue the Toronto Maple Leafs have never gotten the memo. To be fair it is in most part due to both the organizational and fan pressure to become a winner as quickly as possible. The fans have run out of patience for a successful team to be built and want instant results after, very realistically, a lifetime of waiting. This feeling has only been accelerated by the impressive recent performances from the club, making the fanbase believe that the Leafs are closer to a championship than they are in actuality.

This is the kind of mentality that has ultimately doomed the club in recent history, and prevented them from becoming the winner that the city of Toronto desires. The team has not been focused on drafting or developing prospects, instead turning to free agency and trades to acquire a quick fix option. The Leafs have been wasteful and impatient with prospects, keeping Nazem Kadri in the minors for far too long while at the same time ruining Luke Schenn by exposing him to the pros too early. All of this has been due to the lack of the patience that has made clubs like Pittsburgh, Chicago and Los Angeles annual contenders.

Today, the team and the fanbase should be happy with what they have accomplished. The Leafs are one of the youngest teams in the league and they delivered an absolutely solid performance this past year. They are finally in the position that need to be in order to start building a squad that could truly become a sustainable contender. However, they aren’t a true contender yet, requiring at first line centre and a minute-eating top four defender at the least before they can obtain that status.

As per usual with the Toronto Media the team has been linked extensively to players in both of these positions. But while this media speculation is the norm for the organization it seems to have more to it this time around. Many high-end hockey journalists have been reporting they that they Leafs are looking to take an aggressive approach, that all assets are being considered expendable if the price is correct. The names of the other side have been emerging as well.

One of the main names that has been linked to Toronto, although insiders like Rene Lavoie of RDS have downplayed it, is Kris Letang of the Pittsburgh Penguins. The offensive defenseman is one of the best at his craft in the game and this fact earned him a Norris Trophy nomination this season. But its difficult to say whether he would be a great fit in Toronto. First off, Ray Shero is never somebody with whom you truly want to be in business due to his incredible track record.

The Penguins would also be looking for something defensive in return, a probable package could range from Phaneuf and a 1st to something like Phaneuf, Percy and a 1st. Even with Letang replacing Phaneuf the Toronto defense has not improved at all defensively. This is a slight hole in Letang’s game alongside the fact that with Toronto he would be required to play significant minutes each night for the club. The minutes could have been the downfall of Dion, who is also most likely cheaper than Letang would be for the Leafs. They would gain a stud defenseman but would be barely better off than before.

This is just an example of what could go wrong for the Maple Leafs on the trade front, which is sure to be very volatile this time of year. With a young team that has plenty of potential it is more beneficial at this time to just sit back and stockpile prospects and picks rather than make moves that could be setbacks. The price for a number one centre or top four defensemen within the track market is ridiculously inflated at this point and so it might just be better for the Leafs to abstain. However, many would believe that the Leafs have already made a mistake in their management of this off season, making a move that did not address either of these aforementioned holes.

Instead, they went out and used valuable assets to acquire a player in a position which realistically was their third most pressing need. Even that fact is debatable as some would say it is lower. Say what you will about the Jonathan Bernier trade, but there is a reason why opinion was so divided on the deal. On the surface the deal looks like an excellent piece of business from Leafs GM Dave Nonis. Matt Frattin is not overtly young and has shown some good flashes but nothing that indicates he will ever been elite. Ben Scrivens was a good backup but never gave any indication that he would be a starter. Finally, while the second round pick always has potential there is a small chance percentage wise that they will ever develop into anything significant.

But there is also a valid counter point to be made about this transaction. To begin with, was Bernier really required? The Leafs had one of the cheapest goaltending tandems between James Reimer and Scrivens. Furthermore, all of the criticism of Reimer has been misplaced and misguided. All of hatred for Reimer comes from the 2011-12 season when he came back from a concussion. He was 14-14-4 with a 3.10 GAA and a .900 SV percentage. His other two campaigns when he was fully healthy? 20-10-5 with a .921 SV percentage and a 2.60 GAA and this year in which he went 19-8-5 with a .924 SV percentage and a 2.46 GAA. These numbers don’t include a solid 3-4 playoff performance with a GAA of 2.88 and a SV percentage of .923, number that only would have been better should (you know what’s coming) the Game 7 collapse not have taken place.

What the stats show is a very good goalie who has been improving and has shown good ability in his limited exposure to the post season. This isn’t including the fact that Reimer has dealt well with a market like Toronto which is far from everyone’s bread and butter, especially between the posts. All which at every possible turn the media released a new rumour about his possible replacement. Most teams would not consider this a need for replacement. Yet the Leafs packaged an incredibly cheap and capable backup goaltender, one of their few forward prospects and yet another pick to acquire another one. Not to mention Bernier now holds great bargaining position over the Leafs which should make him a far larger cap hit than Scrivens.

The Leafs sit in decent position in terms of the cap at the moment but another million or two added to the pile never helps. Add Kadri, Carl Gunnerson, Cody Franson, Mark Fraser, Mike Kostka and Joe Colborne to the list of names who need to be resigned and it starts to add up. Not to mention Tyler Bozak, who considering his relationship with Phil Kessel could end up sticking around and Clarke MacArthur. This does not include what they would need to pay for a first line centre, which in the current hockey economy is not a bargain buy. So the cap looks good at the moment but it could rapidly reach the ceiling.

It has always been the problem with the Leafs. They have never been able to sit back and build a solid team within instead of going out and trying to make one happen via trades. Almost every time these aggressive measures have failed to pay off and yet another couple of seasons will go by in frustration. The team cannot make this mistake again, and with progress finally being made now is the time to sit back and not rush anything. If the Leafs do this correctly the could be a contender in a few years.

But now is not the time to pull the trigger, now is the time to take a deep breath and readjust the scope for a better shot.

Thanks for reading – as always feel free to leave comments below and follow me on twitter @IswearGaa. Give the rest of the hockey department a follow while you’re at it – @lastwordBKerr@BigMick99, and @LastWordOnNHL, and follow the site @lastwordonsport.

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Main photo credit: bridgetds via photopin cc

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