Last Word On Soccer, Daniel Sperry

(Editorial)- Put a fork in them, they’re done. The San Jose Earthquakes’ loss to Sporting KC this weekend is the virtual nail in the coffin for 2016. ESPN released their Soccer Power Index playoff odds, and currently the Earthquakes have a seven percent chance of making the postseason. For a season that had higher expectations behind it, the ‘Quakes will likely fail to equal their 2015 season. Regression now leads the Earthquakes to their fourth straight season without playoffs. What exactly has gone wrong for the ‘Quakes?

San Jose Earthquakes Loss to SKC is the Nail in the Coffin for 2016

Of course, the ESPN power index is just a percentage, But San Jose are just two points off the bottom of the Western Conference standings. For a team who had an 80% chance at making the postseason in July, so much has gone wrong. There are many factors, including the roster, style of play, and injuries. First, let’s focus on the roster.

Roster Revamp Needed

Most people look at the San Jose Earthquakes Roster, and frankly there’s about two or three expendable players on it: David Bingham, Chris Wondolowski, and Anibal Godoy. None of those are designated players, which is how bad the DP play (or lack thereof) has been this season. Innocent Emeghara just might be the absolute worst DP signing in the history of the league. Simon Dawkins, while integral to the Earthquakes Supporters Shield winning season in 2012, has so far been unimpressive. I’ll defend him for this year, mainly because I don’t think he’s being used properly. If he’s still around, he’ll need to vastly improve in 2017 to shed the “bust” tag that some would like to put on him. The third DP, Matias Perez-Garcia, was obviously not being used correctly. Evidence is by how well he’s played since arriving in Orlando.

The Perez-Garcia trade was foolish. The Earthquakes have held one of the best defensive records in the league the past two years, yet struggle to find the back of the net. They traded away one of their most skilled attacking players for yet another traditional “defensive mid” in Darwin Cerén. They miss a link from the backline to the attack, which is something MPG provided so well during their end of season run last year. MLS teams who don’t have three functional DP’s, performing at the level their contract demands, it’s incredibly difficult to win in the current MLS climate. Now that the “link” was traded for another deep lying mid, the Earthquakes attack becomes even more predictable. This leads to style of play.

Earthquakes Style (Or Lack-Thereof)

Get the ball wide and send it into the strikers. It’s nothing secretive. It’s an attack so predictable that the Earthquakes have the worst goal-scoring record in the league. Their defensive record? Second best in the league. Something’s got to give here, because this isn’t producing winning results. Frankly though, I don’t think the Earthquakes could do much more with the current roster. A lot of that blame lies with John Doyle, who was rightfully sacked on August 29th. When you’ve made the playoffs twice since the return (nine years!!!), in a league where 50% or more make the playoffs (60% with the current playoff plan), you should be fired. But what about Dominic Kinnear?

Frankly, Kinnear really didn’t stand much of a chance with the roster he was given. It also wouldn’t surprise me if he’s gone at the end of the season. There are some things where the fault lies with him, and a lot of that surrounds the midfield and the way this team is set up to play. A 4-4-2 with two deep lying midfielders seemed to be overkill on the defensive side of the ball. With no link between the backline and the attack, despite enjoying a majority of possession, the Earthquakes at times have finished with less than ten shots taken. Not just shots on target, but shots taken, period. There are players in this roster who can provide that link, but are continuously overlooked for reasons unknown.

The Road Ahead

The Earthquakes still technically could make it into the postseason, but it’s extremely unlikely. Even if they were to win their two games in hand on Portland and Sporting KC, Seattle would technically be above them if they did the same as well. Sporting KC and Seattle would have to drop significant points in their remaining games for them to get in. If they keep doing what they have been in recent weeks, they could potentially end up in last place in the league. At this point, they might as well exhaust all options, and one of those is playing Tommy Thompson in his correct position.

They’ve gone with a 4-4-1-1 since Doyle was fired, and Thompson would be a great fit for the deep lying forward or central attacking midfielder in that formation. He’s a decent defender, if you take a look at his numbers from playing as a traditional box to box mid in the beginning of the season. Obviously, his most touted ability is in the attack. The biggest knock on his game is that his finishing level isn’t MLS quality. My argument is this: do the ‘Quakes have anyone else to play in that role (naturally) that have shown MLS level finishing? He deserves a chance there, and it might just bring the Earthquakes some late life.

Playoff Picture

Here’s a look at the current playoff standings in the west starting with the fifth spot.

The cut line is usually around 50 points in the west. With Seattle still having five games left, compared to Portland’s three, the cut line could easily be projected around 47 points. San Jose would literally have to win all their remaining games to get near that cut line. It’s not out of the realm of possibility, but it definitely seems unlikely now that they’ll scratch the postseason. Heck, they’re only two points out of last place. It’s safe to categorize this season as a disappointment and a regression. The most important thing is what they do going forward. Do they learn from their many mistakes over the past nine years? Or do they continue to do more of the same? Only time will tell. In the meantime, ‘Quakes fans will be left watching the playoffs without a “fighter on the card” for the fourth year in a row.