Relentless. Tough. Intelligent. Limitless. These are the buzzwords that Vanderbilt football has been using since Derek Mason was hired January 17, 2014. Thursday night, Vanderbilt will kick off the 2016 football season. It will be Mason’s third year walking the sideline as head coach, and his second year as defensive coordinator. It will also be the first year he is fielding a team that is almost completely comprised of his signees. He is putting a team on the field that he handpicked with a goal in mind.
Limitless: Vanderbilt Commodores 2016 Schedule Analysis
The first two seasons under Mason were rough, to say the least. This year, the preseason buzz is positive and promising. The “Black Death” defense has a solid second year offensive scheme under Andy Ludwig. The quarterback carousel ride is over with Kyle Shurmur named “my clear-cut starter” by Coach Mason back in July. Pair the confident offense with the new (and, with any luck, improved) special teams and Vanderbilt is ready to take on anyone ready to step on the field with them.
To keep Mason out of the hot seat, Vanderbilt will have to become bowl eligible. The home schedule includes South Carolina, Florida, Ole Miss and Tennessee. Vandy should have beaten South Carolina, Florida and, in my opinion, Ole Miss last season. South Carolina’s Pharoh Cooper had a point to prove with the departure of Spurrier, and five(!) turnovers killed the Commodores’ chances. Florida fought tooth-and-nail for their 9-7 victory in the swamp. Ole Miss came out flat and Vandy came out swinging. Had the Vanderbilt offense had been as potent and consistent as the defense, there is no doubt in my mind that they would have beaten Ole Miss. The 2016 roster has 21 players who started multiple games and over 50 letter winners. This is a relentless, tough, and intelligent team with limitless expectations for the 2016 schedule.
Game 1: South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt, September 1st (Thursday)
7:00pm CST Vanderbilt Stadium, Nashville, TN
Vanderbilt has a chip on its shoulder and they should have won this game last year. Coach Mason wrote a letter to The Commodore Nation Monday stating that, “the Commodores are locked-in and poised” and “I’ve never been more excited for what this team has to offer. I’m ready to show you who they are and what they stand for and how they go about their business.”
South Carolina’s new head coach Will Muschamp refuses to name a starter, probably in hopes of keeping Vandy at bay. He seems to be lacking any sense of stability at any skill position. The Gamecocks’ defense has some depth in the linebacker position, but the safety position seems to be a cause for concern. Given the unknowns for the Gamecocks, Vanderbilt’s relentless drive should bring a win to West End. Vanderbilt 37, South Carolina 21
Game 2: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Vanderbilt, September 10th
3:00pm CST Vanderbilt Stadium, Nashville, TN
MTSU is looking to impress this season as they attempt to ride the wave of recent conference expansion and gain a spot in the All-American Conference. Quarterback Brent Stockstill, the 2015 Conference USA Freshman of the Year, returns along with wide receiver Richie James. The Blue Raiders are getting lots of preseason love, but there have been some preseason setbacks at wideout as both Terry Pettis and Shane Tucker have suffered leg injuries.
The benefit of opening the season on a Thursday night is that Vanderbilt will have two extra days to tweak and solidify their game plan against a Blue Raider team that will be looking to avenge the last-minute loss to Vandy last year. Vanderbilt 41, MTSU 30
Game 3: Vanderbilt at Georgia Tech, September 17th
11:30am CST Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Georgia Tech is coming off of a disastrous 2015 season during which they won just three games. If the Vanderbilt offense plays to its potential, the Yellow Jackets‘ young defense should not be a problem, even on the road. Georgia Tech may have had their share of struggles last season, but they are not to be overlooked. Tech will put up a good fight on a September morning in Atlanta but the “Black Death” defense will be opportunistic and help bring home the win. Vanderbilt 27, Georgia Tech 17
Game 4: Vanderbilt at Western Kentucky, September 24th
3:30pm CST Houchens-Smith Stadium, Bowling Green, KY
Vanderbilt lost this matchup by a mere two points a year ago. They led the Hilltoppers in total yards (385 to 246), time of possession (36:39 to 23:21), first downs (20 to 11) and unfortunately turnovers (3 to 0).
Western Kentucky had a great 12-win season and clinched the C-USA title. Their roster is deep with talent; they return seven offensive starters, including five on the offensive line. They are missing their passing leader Brandon Doughty and tight end Tyler Higbee, both of whom have moved on to the NFL. This Hilltoppers team averaged 50 points a game last season. The “Black Death” defense had them on the ropes, and they will again this season. Commodore Nation will be in full effect, riding high on the first three wins and willing to travel the short distance to see this game in Bowling Green. Vanderbilt 24, WKU 14
Game 5: Florida vs. Vanderbilt, October 1st
TBD, Vanderbilt Stadium, Nashville, TN
Another “should-have-won” game from last season. Another two-point loss, the difference being that Vanderbilt had ZERO turnovers while Florida had four. Florida’s defense is again solid and complete on all levels. Their offense is in the hands of walk-on quarterback Luke Del Rio (son of Oakland Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio), who has never taken a snap against an SEC opponent. The “Black Death” defense will be looking to avenge last year’s loss and will be relentless as they welcome Del Rio to the SEC. Vanderbilt 17, Florida 10
Game 6: Vanderbilt at Kentucky, October 8th
TBD, Commonwealth Stadium, Lexington, KY
The Wildcats will be looking to get over the 5-7 hump this season and keep coach Mark Stoops from being fired. If quarterback Drew Barker can play consistently and get the ball to Stanley “Boom” Williams and Jojo Kemp, the Wildcats will have a chance. The Commodores and Wildcats are, overall, pretty evenly matched. Again, I think the “Black Death” defense will give Kentucky fits. If the Vandy offense is firing on all cylinders, with Shurmur under center, they should eke out a win to the chagrin of the home crowd. Vanderbilt 21, Kentucky 17
Game 7: Vanderbilt at Georgia, October 15th
TBD, Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA
A Bulldog alum with an impressive coaching pedigree leads Georgia on to the field this season, and his expectations are high. Kirby Smart has a talented roster with two solid quarterbacks looking to get the start. Running back Nick Chubb and wide receiver Terry Godwin return to keep the Bulldog offense scoring. The Georgia defensive secondary only allowed eleven touchdown passes last season while snagging twelve interceptions. The entire secondary will be back on the field to cause havoc for any quarterback brave enough to throw a ball their way. Shurmur should be playing with confidence by this point in the season, and the ‘Dores will likely put up a good fight. I think ultimately the Bulldogs will win with a talented roster and home field advantage. They will earn every point. Vandy will not go down easily. Vanderbilt 17, Georgia 20
Game 8: Tennessee State at Vanderbilt, October 22nd
TBD, Vanderbilt Stadium, Nashville, TN
This will be a great chance for the Commodores to get their offense tweaked to perfection. I’m not going to say this will be an easy game, because we all know the saying, “Any given Saturday, etc. etc.” Shurmur should be solid and comfortable with the offense by now. Perhaps backup quarterback Wade Freebeck will get a chance under center. I think this game will be over early, with the added bonus of reps for the rest of the depth chart.
Vanderbilt 42, Tennessee State 3
Game 9: Vanderbilt at Auburn, November 5th
TBD Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
Coming off an FCS game and a bye week, a confident and rested Vanderbilt team will have to travel to Auburn. The Tigers will either be reeling from a loss at Ole Miss or breathing a sigh of relief after a win. They will also be looking ahead to Georgia. That lack of focus could potentially help Vanderbilt pull off the biggest upset of Coach Mason’s career. Junior running back Ralph Webb could give Auburn some fits if the Tigers are still struggling to stop the run. I think Auburn will ultimately pull out a win, but they will fight for every point, as Mason’s defense will be one of the best in the SEC. Vanderbilt 10, Auburn 14
Game 10: Vanderbilt at Missouri, November 12th
TBD, Faurot Field, Columbia, MO
Missouri does not have much of a defense- or an offense, for that matter. They enter the season under a new head coach and staff, as well as a sophomore quarterback in Drew Lock.
Their offensive line still has holes, and the Vanderbilt defense should not have a problem getting to Lock. As long as they can keep the passing game in check, the ‘Dores “Black Death” should claim another victim. The Tigers will put up a solid fight, but in the end the will not have gelled enough as a team to make an impact. Vanderbilt 27, Missouri 17
Game 11: Ole Miss at Vanderbilt, November 19th
TBD, Vanderbilt Stadium, Nashville, TN
An athletic Ole Miss team will come to town in mid-November. Barring any unforeseen suspensions from the off-field issues the NCAA is investigating. Vanderbilt will have a colossal fight on its hands. Ole Miss got a dose of the ‘Dores last season that threw them for a loop. Vanderbilt will be bowl eligible at this point, and Mason’s future secure. However, Mason does not like to lose. The ‘Dores should have a healthy dose of winning in their systems at this point of the season. The “Black Death” defense will be on the hunt. Vandy running back Ralph Webb will be on course for a record-breaking season. This will be a hard fought game. I would love to say the ‘Dores will pull out a win, but I do not want to be called crazy. Ole Miss will prevail in Nashville.
Vanderbilt 17, Ole Miss 21
Game 12: Tennessee at Vanderbilt, November 26th
TBD, Vanderbilt Stadium, Nashville, TN
Tennessee is expected to win the SEC East and by this game, they could be looking ahead to Atlanta. Butch Jones will finally figure out how to finish a game. This will be a grudge match, meaning anything could happen. The Vanderbilt faithful will be out in full force as they will be back on the bandwagon with a bowl game in the near future. The home field advantage will be Vanderbilt’s and the black will outweigh the orange in Dudley Field. The ‘Dores offense will be firing on all cylinders and “Black Death” will want this W on their watch. Tennessee will be solid on all levels but might be looking too far ahead to Atlanta; Mason’s defense loves a good upset. They will pull one off against the Volunteers.
Vanderbilt 27, Tennessee 21
Season Prediction: 9-3
Limitless
Derek Mason is one of the best defensive minds in the game. He will give the SEC East more than it can handle. Mason said at SEC Media days back in July, “It’s not about competing anymore, it’s about winning.” The only thing stopping Vandy from pulling off more than one upset this season is themselves. As long as they keep their turnovers to a minimum, and the defense continues to be tough and relentless, it will be a great year for the Commodore Nation. College football is a brutal game. If Vanderbilt can keep their key players healthy, they will win some big matchups. Mason has a long, hard season ahead of him. However, he has built a talented team of intelligent Vanderbilt Men. They are here to be taken seriously and no longer be the doormat of the SEC.
