Let’s start with the idiot statistics for which we are famous.
New York City Football Club have never lost when they have played north of Latitude 33° 86’, AND west of Longitude 118° 27’. Basically that’s North of E. Victoria Street and West of Avalon Boulevard in Carson, California.
Or said another way, they’ve beaten the Portland Timbers in Providence Park. And the Seattle Sounders in Century Link Field. And the Vancouver Whitecaps at BC Place.
So there’s that to keep in mind as NYCFC make their way to lovely Avaya Stadium.
Do You Know the Way?: Can NYCFC beat San Jose?
Additionally, the Cityzens are 1-1 in games that start after 9pm eastern, and are undefeated in games that start after 10*.
And they are undefeated in matches played in cities named for Spanish saints**.
Also remember that Andrea Pirlo and David Villa very recently played at Avaya Stadium. So not only are they familiar with it, but if they left in the locker room during the All-Star Game, they probably know where the Lost and Found is.
But as encouraging as all these, um, statistics are, they can’t seem to erase the question that dogs the team. And it’s this: Can NYCFC beat San Jose if they don’t control the midfield?
Controlling the Midfield
When NYCFC’s vaunted, 109 year old midfield (as Blue City Radio’s Jonathan Sauerschell likes to call it), does – or even comes close – NYCFC win. Against the Colorado Rapids and the New England Revolution, Frank Lampard (38), Andoni Iraola (34) and Andrea Pirlo (37) had considerably more touches than their counterparts. And the team walked away with three points each time.
Against New York Red Bull at Yankee Stadium and against the Montreal Impact on the road, they had marginally fewer touches, but their WhoScored scores were generally higher . Which indicates that even if they have the same number of opportunities, their superior skill can do more with them. And thus still get NYCFC the win.
And when they don’t get anywhere near the same number of touches? You get matches like the last derby in Harrison or the mess in Blue Hell. In both cases the opposing team’s midfield had significantly more touches. And their corresponding play looked substantially better to the friendly folks at WhoScored.com.
But teams do not play in a vacuum, so we have to also ask ourselves how are the San Jose Earthquakes at controlling their midfield? And the answer is, not great. But curiously, it doesn’t seem to matter. In their last five matches, the only times they’ve had more midfield touches – against FC Dallas and the Chicago Fire – they’ve lost.
And their midfield hasn’t acquitted themselves better than their counterparts according to WhoScored.com in any of the matches. Neither in those aforementioned losses nor in their draws against the Houston Dynamo and Real Salt Lake, nor in their victory over Toronto FC.
The Match-Up
So can NYCFC beat San Jose when they meet the in the shadow of North America’s Longest Outdoor Bar?
On the one hand we’ve got an 8th place team who are 6-3-1 at home hosting a first place team who are 6-4-1 on the road.
But on the other hand, NYCFC beat San Jose last year in Yankee Stadium.
However, on the other other hand, this isn’t last year and Avaya is not the Bronx.
And on the other other other hand, you’ve got a team that wins when it dominates the middle, playing a team that wins when it doesn’t.
All of which would seem to argue for a bit of a stalemate.
But in NYCFC you’ve got the reigning Etihad Player of the Month healthy and on the pitch and in form. And you have the league’s leading scorer (13 goals, 1 assist), David Villa returning. Attacking defenders RJ Allen (1 goal and 5 assists), Ronald Matarrita (1 goal and 3 assists). And perennial second half defensive sub Federico Bravo.
All returning to a side that beat a team that currently sits nine points and six places ABOVE San Jose in the Western Conference. Correction, not just beat – thoroughly dominate. All returning to a side that did that without more than a quarter of its regular starting XI. And that got goals from players who hadn’t seen the pitch for months.
That should tip the balance towards NYCFC on Friday. And it should provide some peace of mind in San Jose as NYCFC look towards the post-season.
*Note, this will be the first NYCFC scheduled start after 10pm eastern.
**Note, this will be the first time NYCFC play in a city named for Spanish saint.
