Conference and divisional titles will move closer to resolution this week in college football as Miami travels to North Carolina with the Tar Heels in the drivers seat for the ACC Coastal division title, Alabama travels to Starkville looking to remain in the lead for the SEC West title, Memphis will battle Houston in a key American Conference clash with New Years Six bowl game implications, Oregon faces Stanford in the PAC-12 north, and Oklahoma will battle Baylor in the marquee game of the week that will help decide the Big 12 title, and have CFB playoff implications. As usual John Bava, Mike Loveall, Steen Kirby, and Yesh Ginsburg are on hand to make their predictions.
Miami at #23 North Carolina (Saturday 11/14/15 3:30 P.M. EST in Chapel Hill, NC)
Line: North Carolina by 13
John:
Strength will inevitably meet strength in Chapel Hill Saturday as the ACC’s top passer in Miami’s Brad Kaaya takes on a North Carolina defense giving up the third-fewest pass yards in the nation. It’s part of the foundation for the Tar Heels’ surprise run that has them undefeated in conference play. Also crucial to their success has been the quarterback play from Marquise Williams and running back Elijah Hood’s ability to find the end zone, tallying 11 touchdowns so far.
Since that 58-0 beatdown at the hands of Clemson that precipitated the firing of Al Golden, the ‘Canes have won two close games in a row and are suddenly bowl eligible. Winning breeds confidence and Miami would love nothing more than to bag their second victory in the state of North Carolina this year, having knocked off Duke two weeks earlier in stunning fashion.
I think Miami keeps it close but the Tar Heels continue to roll towards an inevitable duel with Clemson in the ACC title game.
Prediction: North Carolina 38, Miami 30
Steen:
North Carolina is playing too well for me to pick against them in this game. The Heels curb stomped a good Duke team last week at home, and now they get a Pandora’s Box Miami team that has the talent to play well, but has also seen the wheels come off at times this season. Larry Scott has Brad Kaaya and company playing their hearts out again after the Al Golden debacle but Marquise Williams and company, along with Gene Chizik’s defense should prove too much, as UNC fans can pay attention to football a bit longer,even with basketball season right around the corner.
Prediction: North Carolina 35, Miami 20
Mike:
The North Carolina Tarheels are coming off one of the more impressive performances of the season after their absolute dismantling of Duke. The Tarheels seem to be getting better with every week and feature one of the most dynamic and balanced offenses in the nation. The defense continues to improve as well. Miami, well, is still Miami. The Hurricanes have survived a disappointing season and weathered the firing of Al Golden and have still showed resolve. Resolve doesn’t always win games though, especially against quality teams with momentum. In addition, to playing with balance, they’re also playing with focus and that can be a scary proposition for opponents. The Tarheels continue their march to Charlotte.
Prediction: North Carolina 42, Miami 23
Yesh:
This Miami team needed a miracle (and some refs who weren’t paying attention) to beat Duke and have struggled all season against better teams, though they did play Florida State close. North Carolina looks to be rounding into form at the right time.
Prediction: North Carolina 41, Miami 20
#2 Alabama at #17 Mississippi State (Saturday 11/14/15 3:30 P.M. EST in Starkville, MS)
Line: Alabama by 8
John:
The Crimson Tide come into this game riding a wave of momentum after thoroughly shutting down LSU’s vaunted rushing attack led by Heisman candidate Leonard Fournette. In fact, Fournette may have some legit competition for that award after the display Bama running back Derrick Henry put on against the Tigers in Tuscaloosa.
Henry has a chance to add to his 1,254 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns against a Mississippi State run defense that ranks 70th nationally, giving up over 167 yards per game. The Bulldogs’ blueprint for staying competitive in this game may come down to the way their Egg Bowl rivals Ole Miss pulled off a road upset of the tide: get exceptional quarterback play. Dak Prescott is third in the SEC in passing yards and will need to bring his A-game against an Alabama secondary that includes Eddie Jackson who has five interceptions and two pick sixes already.
The Tide are in immensely good form right now and I don’t see that letting up in Starkville this Saturday.
Prediction: Alabama 34, Mississippi State 17
Steen:
Dak Prescott is still a tremendous QB, and Dan Mullen is still an excellent coach as the MSU Bulldogs have won three straight scoring 40+ and are just a two point loss to LSU away from being a one loss SEC team that in theory would be in playoff contention. With that said Alabama put up a solid performance against LSU on both sides of the ball and with six straight wins under their belt look for Derrick Henry and company to continue the momentum. The Bama defense is weaker against the spread, so expect some scoring though.
Prediction: Alabama 31, Mississippi State 24
Mike:
A tale of two teams. Mississippi State, after spending time at the top of the charts last season, was voted to finish last in the division during the preseason. Alabama, a title contender since Nick Saban’s arrival in Tuscaloosa, was pegged for a dynastic decline after losing to Ole Miss earlier this season. Both teams have played with chips on their shoulder this season; Mississippi State quietly and Alabama in the nation’s spotlight. Coach Dan Mullen is the middle of his best coaching job after losing a vast majority of starters off of last season’s title contending team. But Nick Saban knows how to win national championships with one loss, and Alabama is finally getting Alabama-level quarterback play from Jake Coker. Last week’s beatdown of LSU showed that the Tide is finally cresting – and probably at just the right time. Mississippi State won’t finish last this year, but they won’t beat Bama either.
Prediction: Alabama 38, Mississippi State 23
Yesh:
Alabama looked like a juggernaut last week, but how much have we really seen from LSU this year anyway? The Tide seem better on the road than at home this year, though, and the defense is incredibly stout. Mobile quarterbacks have been the type to trouble Nick Saban/Kirby Smart defenses in the past, but I don’t think that Dak Prescott has the talent around him to move the ball like they’ll need to against the Tide.
Prediction: Alabama 24, Mississippi State 17
#21 Memphis at #24 Houston (Saturday 11/14/15 7:00 P.M. EST in Houston, TX)
Line: Houston by 7
John:
This sure has the potential to be one of the more fun games to watch this weekend. Tom Herman’s upstart Houston team puts their unblemished record on the line at home against a Memphis side looking to right the ship after getting manhandled by Navy 45-20 last week.
Expect a lot of points, as these two teams rank in the top ten nationally in points per game. The manner in which they obtain those points, though, is somewhat different,
The Tigers love to air it out, with quarterback Paxton Lynch averaging nearly 335 pass yards per game, good enough for sixth in FBS. The Cougars, on the other hand, prefer a largely ground and pound attack led by running back Kenneth Farrow and dual-threat quarterback Greg Ward, Jr. Ward averages slightly over 92 rushing yards a game, second-best in the nation among quarterbacks.
What will tilt this game in Houston’s favor is their pass rush, and Lynch will find out pretty quickly it comes in differing ways, even from the secondary. Cougar defensive back Trevon Stewart already has six sacks this season which is the most in the nation for any player at his position. I don’t see Lynch being able to get in any kind of a rhythm as a result of the pressure he’s likely to see all game.
Prediction: Houston 52, Memphis 42
Steen:
Greg Ward vs. Paxton Lynch, Tom Herman vs. Justin Fuente in this AAC battle in which the worst case for the conference is probably a Memphis win. Houston barely survived last week against a Cincy team with a high powered offense, and Memphis can also air it out, thus expect them to give up some points. With that said the Cougars are an excellent team and with Memphis potentially deflated from a blowout loss to Navy, I look for them to sneak through, perhaps on a game winning drive.
Prediction: Houston 52, Memphis 49
Mike:
The Navy sandwich game. Memphis comes into this game a week after losing its first game of the season to Navy. Houston comes into this game a week ahead of their showdown with Navy – a game that might determine the Group of 5 participant in the New Year’s Six Bowls. Can Memphis find the rhythm that proelled them past Ole Miss? Can Tom Herman’s charges keep a lid on the Tigers potent offense while still putting up points themselves? I think being on the road helps Memphis here, as well as having the Ole Miss game experience. Remember that Memphis hasn’t seen a triple option attack this century. The Cougars are a lot closer to Ole Miss than they are to Navy. Look for Memphis to rebound, in no small part because Houston has their compass pointed towards next week.
Prediction: Memphis 41, Houston 37
Yesh:
Memphis is incredibly talented and plays with emotion every week. Still, they have some shocking results against teams that aren’t as good as them. This program just isn’t used to winning yet, but they will be soon under Justin Fuente. It won’t matter this week, though. Houston is the best team that Memphis will face all season. You heard me, Ole Miss fans. The game will hinge on the turnover battle. Houston wins by being an incredibly opportunistic defense. Memphis almost never turns the ball over.
Prediction: Houston 31, Memphis 21
Oregon at #7 Stanford (Saturday 11/14/15 7:30 P.M. EST in Stanford, CA)
Line: Stanford by 10
John:
This matchup has routinely had conference title implications in recent years, with the last five winners having gone on to take the Pac-12 championship. It will likely continue if the Cardinal can protect home turf when the Ducks come to Palo Alto Saturday. With a win, Stanford will clinch the North Division and have a chance to win their third Pac-12 crown in four years.
Oregon’s shaky defense which ranks 118th in FBS is going to be hard-pressed to stop do-everything running back Christian McCaffery. The scintillating sophomore leads the nation with a whopping 2,174 all-purpose yards which is 200 more than his nearest competitor. Stanford may also have their hands full with Duck running back Royce Freeman, who’s currently the nation’s fifth best rusher, averaging 143 yards per game.
McCaffery should have few problems carving his way into the second and third level of the Duck defense, thus continuing his dark horse Heisman campaign. Cardinal roll in this one and march closer to an epic showdown with Notre Dame in two weeks time.
Prediction: Stanford 45, Oregon 24
Steen:
Oregon has recovered from a miserable start to their season as Vernon Adams and Royce Freeman have piloted the Ducks to three straight PAC-12 wins. Stanford is on a roll however as Kevin Hogan, and Christian McCaffery are undefeated in conference play, and the PAC-12’s best shot at reaching the CFB playoff. Stanford plays a style that bothers Oregon’s finesse in the first place and the Ducks defense is down this year, at home look for the Cardinal to run wild in a shootout.
Prediction: Stanford 41, Oregon 28
Mike:
I don’t want to get too cocky, but Stanford beats Oregon even when Oregon is the better team. So, in a season where Stanford is clearly the better team, I just don’t see Oregon keeping this game close. Stanford is tougher, executing well, has possibly the most exciting player in the nation playing about 14 different positions, and is home for this contest. Nerd Nation (is there a better name for a fan base in the nation?) still has hopes for the playoffs. Look for Stanford to apply the normal Oregon game plan: keep hitting the Ducks squarely in the mouth on defense and out-execute the Duck defense while having the ball. I think Stanford wants to make sure Oregon knows who the better team is and runs away with this game.
Prediction: Stanford 52, Oregon 27
Yesh:
Oregon looks better and better as the year goes on, and we saw what the USC offense did to Stanford earlier in the season. Oregon will score points; they always do. The question will be whether Kevin Hogan and the offense can keep up. I say they can, and I say it will be Hogan’s legs that do it.
Prediction: Stanford 41, Oregon 34
#12 Oklahoma at #6 Baylor (Saturday 11/14/15 8:00 P.M. EST in Waco, TX)
Line: Baylor by 2.5
John:
If you talk college football with me, and particularly the current CFP rankings, you will notice firsthand that I like where Oklahoma is currently positioned. In many respects, they could be this year’s Ohio State. The Buckeyes were ranked 16th in the first committee rankings in 2014, while the Sooners were ranked 15th this year and have moved up to 12th after their 52-16 pounding of Iowa State Saturday. Could OU be the team to sneak into that four spot this year?
This weekend’s mouthwatering clash against Baylor is the beginning of a three-game gauntlet to close out their 2015 campaign. The Sooners face TCU next week and finish their season with the annual “Bedlam” rivalry game with Oklahoma State. If OU can knock off currently sixth-ranked Baylor, beat previously top ten TCU and follow that up with a win over an Oklahoma State team that may very well be undefeated when the two teams meet, that could make for an intriguing resume that might stand up well when the selection committee releases their final rankings.
But first, they must go to Waco and face a vaunted Bears offense which is the only one in the country averaging over 50 points per game. They may have the defensive weapons to do so, as OU themselves are allowing just 18 points a game which leads the Big 12. If they can somehow rattle freshman quarterback Jarrett Stidham in just his second start filling in for the injured Seth Russell, they may yet be able to come back to Norman with a victory.
Prediction: Oklahoma 41, Baylor 38
Steen:
With Seth Russell injured, freshman Jarrett Stidham is now in charge of the high powered Bears offense that hasn’t scored less than 30 all season, and has scored 40+ in all but one game this season (last Thursday on the road vs. K-State). With Shock Linwood, Corey Coleman, and Jay Lee among options, I don’t see OU’s defense being able to slow down Art Briles squad too much. With that said a lot of pressure will fall on this Baylor defense, as Shawn Oakman and company face their biggest test this season. Baker Mayfield has decimated Big 12 defenses since losing to Texas in a slog fest, but that Texas loss, along with a close call against Tennessee shows this Sooners team has weaknesses. This game should be exciting from start to finish, and I have Baylor coming out on top, they are the sleeper team in CFB right now, and I have voted them #1 in my own rankings for multiple weeks now. They deserve far more respect than they are getting at the moment, and this win should earn them that.
Prediction: Baylor 62, Oklahoma 49
Mike:
I think this is the most intriguing game of the weekend. Oklahoma has that horrible loss against lifeless Texas, but they’ve looked like the best Big 12 team for most of the season. Baylor has scored a billion points, but lost their starting quarterback and hasn’t played a serious threat all season. Look for the Sooners to blitz on every play to disrupt the Baylor pocket and rely on their defensive athleticism to make some plays. The Sooner offense will be able to put a point or two – or fifty – on the Baylor defense. TCU last week, and Baylor this week. This season is turning into another nightmare scenario for the Big 12 as a multi-way tie for first place is looking likely in the conference and with no conference championship game, look for a repeat of last season when the Playoff teams are announced.
Prediction: Oklahoma 59, Baylor 34
Yesh:
The game is in Waco, but that shouldn’t mean much to a Sooners team that has been eviscerating opponents since they lost to Texas. The matchup here is entirely in Oklahoma’s favor. Their D-line will get enough pressure to not let the Baylor offense get into rhythm and the Oklahoma offense will light up a decent (but not great) Baylor defense. I expect Baylor’s CFP hopes to come crashing down this week.
Prediction: Oklahoma 44, Baylor 24
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