Week 9 might not have the most high-profile slate of games, but there will be a few that affect the Playoff race. And, as we learned last week, any game can sometimes sneak up on you and change the whole season. Still, we are here with our experts’ analysis and predictions for the five biggest games of the week. As always, our panelists include myself, Steen Kirby, John Bava, and Mike Loveall. Here’s how we’re doing in our first season of this:
We promise to pick it up from here on out.
Tailgate Pick ’em College Football Week 9 Predictions–Including Temple/Notre Dame
North Carolina at Pittsburgh (Thursday 7/29/15 7:00 PM ET, ESPN)
Line: UNC by 3
Steen:
Pat Narduzzi is already off to a winning start as coach at Pitt, but the Panthers could well be in for a three game losing streak after winning four straight if they drop this game at home. The Panthers have weapons on offense with WR Tyler Boyd, reliable QB Nathan Peterman, and young running back Qadree Ollison, but they have come out winners in close games against relatively mediocre team as of late, relying on their defense to step up and get stops.
UNC rebounded nicely from their opening game loss to a bad South Carolina team, and QB Marquise William’s, along with Gene Chizik’s defense have righted the ship. The Heels are favorites to win the coastal, and with RB Elijah Hood likely to have a good game, I see them winning this unless they fall into the turnover trap. Pitt is good, but UNC has the edge at almost every position.
Prediction: UNC 31, Pitt 24
Mike:
After an ugly first week loss to South Carolina, the Tar Heels have steadily improved. A balanced offensive attack led by quarterback Marquise Williams and a solid defense has North Carolina at a surprising 6-1 and in the catbird’s seat in the ACC Coastal Division with good wins over Georgia Tech and Virginia. Pitt finds itself at 6-1 and tied with North Carolina atop the ACC Coastal and while their wins have been less impressive than North Carolina’s (against common opponents Wake Forest, Virginia, and Georgia Tech), their one loss was by three points to undefeated Iowa. They’ve lived on the edge in the past few weeks with a couple of clutch last minute kicks. Can Pat Narduzzi’s charges steal another one at the buzzer? Not this week as North Carolina’s balance is too much for the Pittsburgh defense.
Prediction: North Carolina 28, Pittsburgh 21
John:
Thursday night’s clash between the Tarheels and Panthers at Heinz Field unexpectedly has championship implications within the ACC Coastal Division. Both teams are undefeated in league play and have a single loss overall, both coming in the narrowest of fashions. Pitt fell on a last second 57 yard field goal against still unbeaten Iowa, while UNC’s lone defeat came off a long rushing touchdown they conceded in the season opener against South Carolina when they led 13-10 in the fourth quarter.
Under first-year head coach Pat Narduzzi, the Panthers are finding ways to win close. This is particularly true over the course of their current four-game winning streak, where their average margin of victory is just 4.25 points. Narduzzi made a name for himself as a great defensive mind at Michigan State, and he has the Pitt defense in the top 20 nationally against the pass.
Speaking of stout pass defenses, the Tar Heel unit is currently the nation’s second-best, averaging just 137.3 yards allowed per game. That could be a problem for Pittsburgh. Quarterback Nate Peterman has thrown for a paltry 1,111 yards this season and has just nine touchdowns. UNC’s secondary could be primed to benefit with defensive backs MJ Stewart and Malik Simmons having combined for five interceptions.
The Tar Heels might be one of the most under-the-radar conference unbeatens in the country so far. That may change if they can escape Pittsburgh with a win which I predict they will in close fashion.
Prediction: North Carolina 19, Pittsburgh 14
Yesh:
North Carolina and Pitt are ranked halfway through the season and have a battle that could determine the ACC Coastal. Both still have outside College Football Playoff hopes. If you saw this coming in the preseason, you’re lying.
North Carolina would be undefeated now if not for a horrid Week 1 game against South Carolina. Pitt, on the other hand, lost to Iowa on a 57-yard field goal as time expired after the Panthers staged an incredible comeback. Pat Narduzzi is doing an amazing job in his first year as a head coach and this Pitt defense is good. This is all without their Heisman-contending running back too.
Prediction: Pitt 26, North Carolina 20
Georgia vs Florida (Saturday 10/31/15 3:30 PM ET, CBS)
Line: Florida by 3
Steen
Both teams have rejected preseason expectations to get to where they are now, and have changed in character due to UGA losing Heisman quality RB Nick Chubb, and UF losing breakout Freshman QB Will Grier. The Gators are now in the drivers seat for the SEC East, and still have a shot to make the playoff if they win the SEC. Georgia and Mark Richt are trying to save their season with a rivalry win.
Both teams come off of a bye week as well and should be fresh and prepared. With UGA missing a large part of their offense, and Greyson Lambert relatively poor at QB, the UF defense should feast. The cornerstone of the Gators success this season has been defense, and they should be able to score just enough points to grab a win in this one and all but clinch the SEC East.
Prediction: Florida 17, Georgia 10
Mike:
Both of these teams defy conventional logic. Florida should be struggling to stay afloat in a rebuilding year under a new head coach. Georgia, with its stout offensive line, running game and defense should be methodically marching to Atlanta. Instead, the roles are reversed as one of the great neutral site rivalries in sports is resumed in Jacksonville on Sunday. Remember last year, when Florida shocked everyone by destroying Georgia? Expect Mark Richt to have the Bulldogs prepared. I’m still not sold on Florida for the long haul and I’m not sold that the Bulldogs have given up the ship. I see this one needing extra time to decide it.
Prediction: Georgia 26, Florida 23 (Overtime)
John:
Saturday will mark the 93rd all-time meeting between these two border rivals. Nearly all of them have occurred in Jacksonville. Only twice since 1933 have the Gators and Bulldogs faced off against one another on each other’s campus.
Both teams are coming off week 8 byes and will be missing key playmakers on offense for the rest of the season due to differing circumstances. Georgia running back Nick Chubb sustained multiple torn ligaments in his knee against Tennessee, while Florida quarterback Will Grier was suspended for a year after testing positive for a banned substance.
Grier’s replacement Treon Harris was impressive despite the loss to LSU two weeks ago, throwing for 271 yards, two touchdowns and no picks. As a result, I still think the Gators have the edge at quarterback in this game with Georgia’s Greyson Lambert having among the SEC’s worst per game pass yardage amongst regular starters.
Chubb’s absence makes UGA’s rushing attack that much less formidable. Sony Michel has potential but averaged a paltry 3.3 yards per carry in the Bulldogs 9-6 win over Missouri. Florida’s defense is in the top 25 nationally both in rushing defense and tackles for loss. If they can’t win the battle at the point of attack, it’s going to be a long afternoon for the Dawgs.
Prediction: Florida 31, Georgia 17
Yesh:
The Dawgs lost Nick Chubb to an awful leg injury and Sony Michel’s status is in doubt as well. That’s really unfortunate, because it’s nearly impossible to throw the ball against Florida. If Michel is healthy, I think it opens up the Georgia offense and they can play with the Gators. If he’s not, they have no chance. They will be able to keep Florida’s offense in check, but unless they find a ground game they might not gain any yards themselves.
Prediction: Georgia 21, Florida 17
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (Saturday 10/31/15 3:30 PM ET, ESPN)
Line: Oklahoma State by 3
Steen
Another Big 12 matchup of high scoring pass heavy teams. OK State is surprisingly undefeated and hasn’t scored less than 30 since the first game of the season. The Cowboys have been able to consistently pull out wins and they need this road win in Lubbock to remain in the Big 12 race.
Texas Tech still has a great QB in Patrick Mahomes but their defense has surrendered 50+ to the three best offenses in the Big 12 (TCU, Baylor, and OU). That defense isn’t getting any better and the Red Raiders seem to be slumping after a good start to their season. Oklahoma State may run away with this one like the Sooners did last week.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 56, Texas Tech 35
Mike:
We’ve talked about the Red Raiders a few times this year. After their near upset of TCU earlier in the season, Texas Tech hasn’t been able to stay in games with quality competition, getting blown out by Baylor and Oklahoma and beating Kansas by only 10 points. Oklahoma State finds themselves undefeated and building momentum with a string of good conference wins against Texas, Kansas State, and West Virginia. Those aren’t TCU and Baylor, but they’re good teams. Oklahoma State is starting to think that they could be the one true champion, but look for Texas Tech to get things back on track as the Cowboy defense isn’t quite as far along as the ‘Poke offense. Amid a week of tragedy, Oklahoma State drops their first game of the season. Prediction: Texas Tech 45, Oklahoma State 41
John:
Heavy hearts abounded in Stillwater last week after a senseless tragedy unfolded during Oklahoma State’s homecoming parade hours before the Cowboys were to face Kansas. Four people were killed and dozens injured after a drunk driver plowed into a group of fans. The game was played in honor of the victims and the Pokes rolled 58-10.
Now comes a road trip to Lubbock against a Texas Tech team coming off 63-27 defeat to OSU’s big rival in Norman. Vegas doesn’t seem highly sold on the Cowboys despite them being undefeated and the Red Raiders having come off what for all intents and purposes was a blowout loss.
Both teams have quarterbacks who love to sling the ball around. Tech’s Patrick Mahomes and State’s Mason Rudolph are sixth and 11th in the nation respectively in pass yards per game. Mahomes averages 43.4 passes per game which ranks third in FBS.
Defense might determine who comes out on top in this one, and let’s be honest: the Red Raiders are lacking in that department. They’re currently second-worst nationally in yards conceded both overall and on the ground. The Pokes are 21st overall in FBS while also having the Big 12’s second-best pass defense. It might be the perfect recipe to neutralize Mahomes.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 52, Texas Tech 38
Yesh:
Oklahoma State has had a miracle season so far. Unfortunately, that miracle has included a lot of close and confusing wins over teams that aren’t so great. Being one of the last 12 undefeateds is quite an accomplishment and it has been reflected in their ranking, but the dream ends here against Patrick Mahomes and a good Texas Tech offense.
Prediction: Texas Tech 41, Oklahoma State 24
Notre Dame at Temple (Saturday 10/31/15 8:00 PM ET, ABC)
Line: Notre Dame by 10
Steen
Notre Dame has a case as the best one loss team in the country, as they were a play away from a possible #1 ranking at this point. The Irish have been solid since that Clemson loss, scoring a win over a competitive USC team, and DeShone Kizer continues to improve.
Temple is surprisingly undefeated, and it’s great for their program, but they have yet to play a ranked team. This is a good football team, and the AAC is a good conference, but I still think they will come up short at home. The Owls don’t have the depth or speed to hang with Notre Dame, and we should see separation in the second half.
Prediction: Notre Dame 35, Temple 21
Mike:
Let’s get this out of the way up front: Temple is a quality team. They’ve had a great season so far, highlighted by an opening week thumping of Penn State, 27-10. But in the last two weeks, they’ve looked a little out of sync, beating two struggling programs – UCF and East Carolina – by 14 and 10 points respectively. Notre Dame, on the other hand, has survived several tests, many injuries and a tough loss at Clemson and is now coming off a very well timed bye week. They will be fresh, prepared, and motivated to finish the season strong. Expect the Irish defense to be the dominant force in this game.
Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Temple 17
John:
If I told you before the season Notre Dame would be going into this game with one loss and would have a worse record than Temple, would you believe me? I highly doubt it. That said, credit the Owls for phenomenal year thus far that has included a season-opening win against a Penn State team that looked shaky then but currently has just a single loss in Big Ten play. That came to top-ranked Ohio State.
Here’s another thing I bet you thought you’d never see…maybe ever: ESPN’s College Gameday coming to Philadelphia, PA for a game involving Temple. Well, it’s time to believe not only that, but the real possibility they could pull of an upset at home against the Irish.
There are certain stats that certainly favor the Owls. They’re among the nation’s best teams in both sacks and shutting down opposing team’s running backs, ranking 11th and sixth respectively in those two categories. Notre Dame has proven vulnerable to a good pass rush, allowing 2.14 sacks per game (64th in FBS). If Temple can get pressure on DeShone Kizer and also slow down running back CJ Prosise they may have a shot.
Closer than the experts think, as Corso always says, but Irish escape in a close one.
Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Temple 31
Yesh:
Oh how I would love to be able to pick Temple in this game. What the Owls have done this season is nothing short of amazing. And the American Conference deserves serious recognition, which it will lose if Temple drops this game. Unfortunately, Notre Dame is just too talented across the board. Temple’s defensive line will cause problems and the Owls are well-coached enough to stay close, but CJ Prosise and co. will get the job done.
Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Temple 21
Stanford at Washington State (Saturday 10/31/15, 10:30 PM, ESPN)
Line: Stanford by 12
Steen:
Mike Leach has made Washington State relevant for the first time in a decade, quietly building a bowl quality Pac-12 team in Pullman. The Cougars know how to score with a high flying offense and former walk-on Luke Falk is great at spreading around his throws to different receivers.
With that said, Leach, as is his MO, has taken far less interest in the Washington State defense and they have been quite poor against every power 5 team they have faced this season.
Stanford is on a roll and still has a shot at the National title if they win the Pac-12. Kevin Hogan and Christian McCaffrey are a powerful 1-2 punch for the Cardinal offense and their defense is stout as well. Stanford is underrated right now, and this is a physical football team that should outmuscle WSU for a win.
Prediction: Stanford 52, Washington State 38
Mike:
Mike Leach is leading another surprising team in Pullman. That 5-2 record might be a little deceiving, however. Losses to Portland State (Yes, Portland State) and Cal are telling and the Cougars have a seven point win over struggling Oregon and a three point win over Arizona last week. Stanford, on the other hand, have been nothing short of unbeatable after an inexplicable first week loss at Northwestern. All-Galaxy back/receiver/return man/cover model Christian McCaffrey is leading a tough, hard nosed, but skilled Cardinal offense. And the Stanford defense is what it normally is. Stanford continues their march to the top of the conference in convincing fashion.
Prediction: Stanford 48, Washington State 27
John:
The Cardinal appear to be the clear front-runner in the Pac-12 at this point. They’re currently undefeated in conference play and have won all five games by an average of 20.8 points. Running back Christian McCaffery continues to make a case to be firmly in the Heisman conversation with other players at his position such as Leonard Fournette and Ezekiel Elliott.
Speaking of under-the-radar players, Wazzu quarterback Luke Falk might be the most prolific signal caller you haven’t heard of. He’s clearly excelling in Mike Leach’s high-powered offense, averaging 412.1 yards passing per game, the second-best mark in the nation. He’s also tossed 26 touchdowns compared to only four interceptions and has been crucial to the Cougars 3-1 start to Pac-12 play.
Stanford has one of the best pass defenses in the conference, while Washington State has struggled against the run. That could be the difference in Pullman in another edition of Pac-12 After Dark late Saturday night.
Prediction: Stanford 45, Washington State 30
Yesh:
Washington State started this year off with a bang (and not a good one), losing to FCS Portland State. Since then, Mike Leach’s “Air Raid” has been very quietly winning games. Don’t look now, but the Cougars control their own destiny in the Pac 12. Unfortunately, that ends this week when they run into Stanford, who might be playing the best college football in the country.
Prediction: Stanford 45, Washington State 24
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