Week 6 has at least one marquee game with Cal traveling to face Utah in Pac-12 after dark action, andthen a handful of teams including Mizzou and Miami attempting to pull off upsets against undefeated conference opponents. It was a rough week for our team of experts Yesh Ginsburg, Steen Kirby, Mike Loveall, and John Bava, but we promise to do better this week. Without further adieu, here are the top games of week 6 and our predictions.
Tailgate Pick ‘Em College Football Week 6 Predictions Including Miami-FSU
#13 Northwestern at #18 Michigan (Saturday 10/10/15 3:30 P.M. EST in Ann Arbor, MI)
Line: Michigan by 7.5
John:
When the season started, neither the Wildcats nor the Wolverines were expected to be where they currently find themselves after five games, but here they are. Saturday’s game at the Big House will mark the first time they’ve played each other when both were in the AP Top 20 since 1958.
Jim Harbaugh’s restoration project in Ann Arbor appears to be ahead of schedule, while Pat Fitzgerald has the Northwestern program on the cusp of bowl eligibility, something that has eluded them the past two years. Both coaches have relied on stifling defense combined with a ground and pound offense that’s certainly paying dividends. The Wildcats 7 points allowed per game is best in the nation while the Wolverines 7.6 is right behind them in second.
If you want to hearken back to the “three yards and a cloud of dust” days of years past in the Big Ten, be sure to tune into this one. Only it’ll be played on FieldTurf so there won’t be a lot of dust. Don’t expect many points either. Though Northwestern have the chance to go 6-0 for the first time since 1959, I’m predicting a narrow win for the home team as Michigan continues to return to relevance.
Prediction: Michigan 13, Northwestern 9
Yesh:
Northwestern has been one of the best defensive teams in the country this year. Michigan’s offense has a lot of problems and a turnover-prone quarterback. The Wolverines will be lucky to score a touchdown this game. Favored by a touchdown? Forget about it.
Prediction: Northwestern 17, Michigan 3
Steen:
Michigan is a hard working and physical team that is solid between the trenches, both on defense, and in the run game, and that competitive loss to a now top 5 Utah team looks far better than it did in week 1. On top of that, Northwestern is going into a difficult environment as the Big House is far different than just about any venue in the Big 10 (except Ohio State and Wisconsin). Northwestern’s best road win is at a small stadium (Duke), and they struggled against Ball State. With that said, Michigan has been winning games off of the power of defense, and I don’t trust their QB situation at all. The win over an exhausted BYU team doesn’t make me a believer yet in the Maize and Blue, and I’m going to go with unheralded and underappreciated Northwestern to win this game on defense in a close one.
Prediction: Northwestern 17, Michigan 14
Mike:
Call me biased, but I’m still not sold on Northwestern. Michigan, on the other hand, I am buying. I think Jim Harbaugh – for all of his flaws – is a darn good football coach between the lines. Pat Fitzgerald is too, for that matter. I think Michigan has the edge in talent, physicality, and psychology here, not to mention home field advantage. The Wolverine faithful have something to be excited about for the first time in several years. It’s Northwestern’s prove-it-to-me game, but Michigan continues to state their case in the Big Ten.
Prediction: Michigan 24, Northwestern 10
#21 Oklahoma State at West Virginia (Saturday 10/10/15 7:00 P.M. EST in Morgantown, WV)
Line: West Virginia by 7
John:
This game will likely be the antithesis of Michigan-Northwestern in front of what should be a raucous crowd in Morgantown. Both quarterbacks love to sling it around. Cowboy signal caller Mason Rudolph is currently tenth nationally in passing, averaging nearly 335 yards per game. His counterpart for the Mountaineers, Skyler Howard, has thrown for ten touchdowns which has been bested by only 12 quarterbacks in FBS so far.
Each team has their own unique strengths on defense. For the Pokes, it comes down to putting massive pressure on the quarterback. The Cowboys lead the nation in sacks and defensive linemen Emanuel Ogbah and Jimmy Bean have combined for 10.5 of them.
WVU’s ten interceptions on the year is second nationally but they received devastating news on that front when safety Karl Joseph sustained a season-ending knee injury on Tuesday. His five picks were tied for best in FBS. Despite the loss of Joseph, I still give the edge to the Mountaineers to knock OK State from the ranks of the unbeaten. Milan Puskar Stadium is always a tough place to play and despite the fact they’re 2-0 in Big 12 play, the Cowboys won those games by a combined five points. They also were the beneficiary of some poor officiating last week in their win over Kansas State.
Prediction: West Virginia 45, Oklahoma State 27
Yesh:
Oklahoma State has managed to slide into this game undefeated by the skin of their teeth. West Virginia has shown flashes of brilliance at times this year but clearly didn’t have the players across the board to stick with the Sooners last week. Still, the Mountaineers are probably the fourth-best team in the Big XII. We’ll find out this week exactly what the ‘Pokes are made of.
Prediction: West Virginia 31, Oklahoma State 14
Steen:
Mason Rudolph is fantastic for Mike Gundy’s Cowboys and this is an offense that can score, and a defense that can rush the passer. With that said, the Pokes got in close games with Texas and Kansas State in consecutive weeks, and KSU was playing a WR at QB. This WVU offense is a huge step up and Skyler Howard should be able to keep pace with Rudolph. Look for a barn burner and West Virginia to get back on track at home after a road loss to a good Oklahoma team.
Prediction: West Virginia 35, Oklahoma State 24
Mike:
I think the key to this game is West Virginia’s loss last week. West Virginia will come as a battle-tested team that has the experience of pressure. Oklahoma State is off to a good start, but they haven’t played a team as good as West Virginia. The Cowboys beat Texas by three and Kansas State by two. Look for West Virginia’s offense to get on track early and carry the day. Oklahoma State’s strong start falters in Morgantown.
Prediction: West Virginia 45, Oklahoma State 34
#11 Florida at Missouri (Saturday 10/10/15 7:30 P.M. EST in Columbia, MO)
Line: Florida by 3.5
John:
What is it with coaches named Jim making instant impacts at their respective schools this year? One is already working wonders up north, while another has fans chomping at the bit (no pun intended) for a return to college football prominence after a few lean years.
The Florida Gators are currently 5-0 in Jim McElwain’s first year and have vaulted themselves up to 11th in the AP poll after thoroughly dominating an Ole Miss on Saturday you know, that same Ole Miss team that went into Tuscaloosa and knocked off Alabama two weeks prior. The Gators next three games, however, will truly test this team’s mettle and determine whether they’re truly ready to be a contender in the SEC East. Following Saturday’s game with Missouri, they face LSU in Baton Rouge and then take on Georgia after a bye week.
Will Muschamp certainly didn’t leave the cupboard bare on the defensive side of the football. The Gators are one of only 15 teams nationally conceding less than 100 yards rushing per game. They’re playing a Missouri team that struggles moving the ball on the ground or through the air. That said, freshman quarterback Drew Lock was impressive in his first ever start last week against South Carolina in place of the now suspended Maty Mauk.
Much like Michigan-Northwestern, I’m expecting defense to reign in this one, with the Gators taking advantage of Missouri’s inexperience at quarterback to return to winning ways in this series after dropping the previous two.
Prediction: Florida 23, Missouri 17
Yesh:
A different Florida team showed up last week against Ole Miss than what we’ve seen from the Gators all year. Night SEC games at the Swamp against Top 5 teams will do that. I can’t see Florida playing that well again this week, especially against a Mizzou team whose offense is better-equipped to move the ball against the Gator D.
Prediction: Missouri 24, Florida 21
Steen:
Mizzou QB Maty Mauk getting injured, and then suspended, was a blessing in disguise for a Tigers offense that had been anemic up until last week against (a very bad) South Carolina team. Drew Lock kickstarted them, but he may have trouble as an inexperienced QB keeping that up against a very good Florida defense. UF is fired up, and has a surprise chance of capturing the SEC east, but they’ll need to get through Missouri at a rowdy Zou, and Georgia later on this year at the cocktail party. Will Grier is good and the Gators have speed on offense and talent on defense. However, I see the offense having a bit of a letdown game in this one, and if Lock can avoid throwing picks to Vernon Hargreaves and company, the Tigers will chomp the Gators in the Zou. Missouri, being the new kids on the block in the SEC, doesn’t get as much cred, but they have won the East twice, and UF is peaking a bit early.
Prediction: Missouri 24, Florida 13
Mike:
Florida surprised the college football world last week by beating Ole Miss soundly. Can they immediately shift focus to Missouri? Two years ago in Columbia the Gators looked terrible. But this isn’t the Mizzou team of the past two years. This Mizzou offense is in shambles and the Gator offense is playing with more confidence than expected. And Missouri, over the past two year, hasn’t played as well at home as they have on the road.
Prediction: Florida 24, Missouri 13
Miami at #12 Florida State (Saturday 10/10/15 8:00 P.M. EST in Tallahassee, FL)
Line: Florida State by 7.5
John:
There was a time in the late 80s and early 90s when this rivalry annually had national championship implications. Those times seem a distant memory considering the current mediocre state of the Hurricane program. The college football universe has been waiting to see when the U will get its groove back but it doesn’t seem to be anytime soon.
Nothing would be sweeter for the Canes then to travel to Tallahassee and spoil their bitter rivals hopes at appearing the CFP for the second consecutive year. Though the Noles are significantly favored, they weren’t exactly impressive last week against Wake Forest, narrowly escaping Winston-Salem with a 24-16 win.
For Miami to be able to pull off the upset, they’ll need solid quarterback play out of Brad Kaaya who currently leads the conference in passing yards per game. They also need to hope they can turn FSU signal caller Everett Golson into the turnover machine he was last year at Notre Dame. The Canes have a tandem in the secondary capable of doing that, with Rayshawn Jenkins and Artie Burns accounting for three interceptions apiece in 2015. That said, I think FSU prevails in a close one.
Prediction: Florida State 27, Miami 23
Yesh:
The Florida State offense has been anemic all year (except against Texas State) and get a chance to show what they can do against a Miami defense that just got shredded by Cincinnati. The Seminoles have more talent on offense (and defense) than the Bearcats, but they haven’t been able to click this year. Al Golden needs this win to save his job. It isn’t looking likely at this point, though.
Prediction: Florida State 31, Miami 28
Steen:
Being a follower of FSU gives me more insight on the Noles than most, but it makes me more cynical than most about their level this season. The defense is excellent, with a line that has depth, and a secondary led by DB Jalen Ramsey that can shot down an opposing teams passing game. With that said, star RB Dalvin Cook, a Miami “305” native, is hampered with a hamstring injury, and while I have no doubt that he would play this game far more injured than he is now, it’s debatable if he’ll be able to be effective, and he has been FSU’s offensive workhorse and sparkplug this season. The FSU o-line has also looked like swiss cheese at times against weak competition, and their pass catching has been dreadful at times, so I don’t expect a lot of scoring.
The players on these teams know each other well, and both the hate, and grudging respect, they have for each other is evident every time this rivalry is played. Miami can score, but their defense is rather porous, and while I expect Brad Kaaya to outsling Everett Golson when it comes to the QB battle, the Noles run game and defense should squeak out a very close win for them in his one. Both Coaches, Fisher and Golden, are poor game managers quite frankly, but Golden is nicknamed “Al Folden” for a reason, and I have a feeling Golden and Miami will find some way to lose this game on the road, perhaps late. Kaaya and Miami played hard at home last year against a better FSU team, but came up short in that one as well. Also FSU has an NFL caliber kicker (and Miami has a solid one as well), this game has come down many times to special teams (usually against the Noles) and it may well come down to that again.
Prediction: Florida State 24, Miami 21
Mike:
This is an interesting game to look at. Miami is an up-and-down team coming off of a loss to Cincinnati after pulling out a win against Nebraska. Al Golden is – still – on the hot seat. Florida State might be without their top running back and barely squeaked out a win against Wake Forest last week. Is this the game that gets Miami back in the national discussion, at least for one week? Miami’s talent is deep, you have to think their hungry, and I think playing on the road helps them focus. Florida State’s regular season winning streak finally comes to an end.
Prediction: Miami 31, Florida State 30
#23 California at #5 Utah (Saturday 10/10/15 10:00 P.M. EST in Salt Lake City, UT)
Line: Utah by 7.5
John:
It seems like the underlying theme for most of the games we’re picking this week has been one of surprise in terms of where these teams currently stand compared to preseason expectations.
I don’t think very many people expected the Northwestern-Michigan game to carry Big Ten and even national title implications. Even the most optimistic Gator fan likely didn’t have Florida as an SEC East contender. And don’t even try to convince me you had Cal and Utah as the only two remaining unbeaten teams in the Pac-12 heading into Week 6.
The Golden Bears and Runnin’ Utes boast two of the most efficient quarterbacks in the nation. Cal’s Jared Goff is third in the nation in passing touchdowns (15) and seventh in completion percentage (70.2) and rating (170.47). It’s a reason he’s high on NFL scouts radar. Utah’s Travis Wilson currently boasts the best Total QBR in the nation at 93.8 and threw for four touchdowns and no interceptions in the Utes’ last outing, a 62-20 rout on the road against Oregon.
Cal may be 5-0 but they’ve done so by the skin of their teeth, winning their last three games by an average of just 4.3 points. The two teams are a combined +15 in turnover margin and so this game may come down to who takes care of the ball better or, consequently, who forces mistakes out of the opposition. I feel that, similar to Oklahoma State, Cal’s unbeaten run to start the year is thwarted on the road.
Prediction: Utah 48, Cal 26
Yesh:
Jared Goff is a tremendous quarterback who is probably playing his way towards a high draft pick right now. Utah is one of the most complete teams in the country, though, behind a dynamic Travis Wilson-led offense and a staunch defense. This team might be better than the 2008 one that smacked around Alabama in the Sugar Bowl and set a record for number of players drafted. The Utes are strong this year. It’s time for the country to really realize that.
Prediction: Utah 48, Cal 24
Steen:
Cal can score in buckets with their Bear Raid offense and Jared Goff, but Utah’s Travis Wilson and Devonte Booker can score just as much, and this Utes team is much stronger on defense than Cal, especially with their pass rush. The Golden Bears will need to generate more turnovers to have a shot on the road in this one, but I’m a firm believer in Utah at this point, and this team is just as good as their previous BCS teams in the 2000’s (04 and 08). Look for a lot of scoring, and a Utes win.
Prediction: Utah 48, Cal 38
Mike:
All signs point to the Utes in this game. First, Utah is coming off a huge win against Oregon two weeks ago and a well timed bye week last Saturday. Second, the Utes will be prepared to face Cal’s dynamic quarterback because they’ve just experienced the Oregon offense in their previous game. Lastly, Cal’s last three wins were Texas by one, Washington by six, and Washington State by six – that’s not very compelling victories by the Bears. Utah continues to stake their claim as the best team in the nation.
Prediction: Utah 41, Cal 24
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