(Editorial) – The LA Galaxy are officially in the MLS Cup Playoffs, thanks to a 1-1 draw against the Seattle Sounders. They have only two games remaining and do not play again until October 18. What then is the LA Galaxy playoff outlook? What should they focus on? What other results should they focus on? Lets break it down:
The Supporter’s Shield Is Probably Gone:
The September slump appeared to put the Galaxy out of the Supporter’s Shield and Western Conference Championship running. Several bad results for the Vancouver Whitecaps, FC Dallas, and New York Red Bulls opened the door again. A 3-2 win against Dallas certainly helped, but the draw against Seattle probably closed the books on the Shield.
Click here to see the full Supporter’s Shield standings.
LA has 51 points, tied with the Red Bulls. New York however has two games in hand. Dallas is on 50 points, with two games in hand as well. New York finishes with the season with Philadelphia and Chicago, two teams that have already out of the playoffs. Dallas finishes at Salt Lake and home to San Jose. Those are favorable schedules.
The Galaxy finish the season home to the Portland Timber then at Sporting Kansas City. Portland is 1-3-1 and just lost at home to an exhausted Kansas City. That home game should be a win. LA still has only won two road games this year, so a draw in KC would probably be an achievement.
The top seed in the Western Conference is probably also an uphill battle. It will very much depend on the outcome of a home-and-home series between Dallas and Vancouver, who play each of the next two Wednesdays. Baring two draws, one team will be ahead of the LA Galaxy prior to the Portland game. Vancouver will have one game remaining after that, home to Houston. Again, favorable fixture.
That game against Portland is critical. It is a must win to keep any hope of the Shield and Western Conference title alive. Not winning either isn’t the end of the world though.
Western Conference Seeding:
I’ve already brought up the notion that the Galaxy are probably not winning the west. However, they can very much get the second seed. That would give them a bye in the play-in-game round. It would also mean getting a week of rest before playing an opponent on three days rest.
Getting the second seed in the west should be the goal. It is very much attainable.
The game against Portland is a must win for this. Lets say the Dallas-Vancouver series results in one team taking 4 of 6 points. The loser of that series would be under pressure to win out should LA beat Portland.
The Galaxy should probably be rooting for Dallas to win the west over Vancouver. Vancouver has two wins against LA this year, including the only win a vising team has had at Stub Hub Center this year. That was a very different Galaxy team back in June, but still. Dallas is one of the few teams LA plays well against on the road. They won the last game at Toyota Stadium 2-1. The Galaxy should be confident about a potential two leg series with Dallas, even with the second leg at Dallas.
Sporting is the next most likely team to jump the Galaxy in the standings. A win against Portland would also force Sporting to win out (at San Jose, home to Colorado and LA) to jump LA in the standings. If LA and Sporting draw to close out the season, it would guarantee the Galaxy finish above them in the west.
A Potential Home MLS Cup Final
Yes, winning the Shield is unlikely. But the Galaxy should finish with more points than any other Easter Conference team, save the Red Bulls. The Galaxy have at least a three point lead on everyone else in the east. Only Toronto FC has a game in hand, and they play three playoff teams to end the season.
Should the LA Galaxy make it to MLS Cup, they should host it unless it is against New York. A win against Portland, and only DC United and Toronto could catch them. DC finishes home to Chicago and at Columbus. They should win against Chicago, but a road trip to Columbus won’t be easy.
The Galaxy should be rooting against the Red Bulls the rest of the regular season and in the playoffs.
