NC State Wolfpack (4-0) vs. Louisville Cardinals (1-3, 0-1 ACC)
October 3, 12:30 PM ET
Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC
Line: NCSU -4.5
Over/Under: 47
Non-Conference Recap
Somehow NC State managed to do exactly what I asked them to against South Alabama. Last week I questioned the Wolfpack’s mental toughness when trailing, simply because they hadn’t done that yet. They had been tied for brief moments vs. Troy and Old Dominion.
I also needed State to put a up a big number against an inferior opponent so that the box score Sunday morning would impress voters who might not have tuned into ESPN3.
South Alabama went up 7-0 on the opening drive to put the Wolfpack behind for the first time this season. That was about if for the Jaguars as State went on a 28 – 0 run on the way to a 42 – 10 halftime lead.
The Wolfpack would never look back and finished on a high note with a 63-13 win in Mobile. Winning by 50 is nice way to cap off a non-conference schedule that undoubtedly left fans and pollsters wanting more.
NC State finished that non-conference schedule outscoring their opponents 185 to 48. Giving up twelve points per game is a stat some teams would kill for, but this includes the shutout of Eastern Kentucky. It is still a nice margin of victory thus far, but the defense’s real tests will come later in the season, maybe even this week.
USA was NC State’s best win as ODU went down to Appalachian State 49-0. All told State’s four opening opponents are 7-7 on the year. An average record for a run of the mill opening set of games. Two wins at home, and two wins on the road.
NC State could not be more under the radar right now, but it’s not for lack of respect. They’re getting votes in both major polls, but it’s hard to rank a team at 4-0 just because of that zero on the end. When all four wins are against Group of Five opponents, the true worth of the Wolfpack will be known in October.
Mr. Petrino Comes to Town
The Louisville Cardinals come in to Raleigh with a win under their belt after dispatching Samford 45-3.
Louisville is starting to take shape as a spoiler instead of an ACC contender. Their first half has been brutal with a 1-3 start after losses to Auburn, Houston, and Clemson.
Two of those are very forgivable and “good” losses. Auburn now seems like less of a good loss after dropping to 0-2 in the SEC. The Cardinals were a threat in all three of their losses. When I looked at NC State’s schedule many months ago, I thought Louisville would be a one possession, down to the wire type of game. Given what has transpired in their respective games thus far, I haven’t dropped that opinion.
Louisville has used three quarterbacks on the season, but seems to have settled on freshman Lamar Jackson. Jackson leads the team in pass attempts, completions, and rushing yards. NC State’s Jacoby Brissett will have another duel threat quarterback opposite him come Saturday. Louisville may not have the other threats in the backfield to assist Jackson.
Tuesday night, freshly welcomed back NC State running back Shadrach Thornton was arrested in a moped incident on campus. Thornton has played two games this season after sitting out the first two due to suspension. Thornton has had many second chances given this is his third incident as a member of the Wolfpack. The timing couldn’t be worse as State has to play a real contender of an opponent and not sacrificial lambs. Thornton was dismissed from the team following this incident.
Whoever State trots out in the backfield will likely give Louisville fits in the their rush defense. Brissett, Matt Dayes, and the rest of the Pack offense should move the ball well, but the rise in competition may keep them out of the 30’s or 40’s. The defense will have to hold down Louisville in the teens, which is an attainable goal.
However, if the Cardinals can ride the momentum of the Samford win, a consistent quarterback, and the feeling of getting a win, then the Wolfpack will be in for a fight the entire game.
This game is huge for both teams, with Louisville already down a game in the Atlantic; the Cards need a win here. NC State’s 4-0 start will be for naught if they go out and drop the first ACC game at home. Sitting at the bottom of the standings a week into conference play is something the Wolfpack needs to avoid after a hot start.
ACC in the Polls
NCSU now has 52 points in the Coaches and ten in the AP Poll. With Georgia Tech dropping out of both polls, NC State is now the next ACC team sniffing a ranking. Florida State and Clemson are now holding down the fort in the polls for the conference. NCSU, Duke, Miami (FL)** and Georgia Tech are receiving votes.
The conference has been in the discussion of “getting left out” of the CFP since the pre-season. If Notre Dame beats Clemson this Saturday, that talk will rev up even more. FSU/Clemson late in the season will decide the fate of the conference in the playoff.
NC State has two games before their bye. If the Pack can take out reeling Louisville, and go on the road to Virginia Tech and be at 6-0 and ranked before the bye, then the ACC will benefit greatly from having another team in the weekly polls.
The Hokies didn’t help the conference out as they went down to Greenville and lost 35-28 to East Carolina.
NCSU has two games before their bye and now look to be favorites in those. I’ll call at Blacksburg a pick ‘em right now.
One Last Thing
**In my preseason article on the most important non-conference games for the ACC, I listed this weekend’s Notre Dame at Clemson game, which is the last one chronologically on that list. With Miami (FL) just going down at Cincinnati, the flag is all Clemson’s to raise if anyone in the conference is going to win what I dubbed the important non-conference games. The rest of the ACC has lost all of those games. Miami (FL) will likely drop from that “other receiving votes” category as well.
Main Photo
