Saturday night at RFK Stadium has the potential to be a watershed moment for the 2015 Columbus Crew SC season.
The club faces D.C. United (7 PM ET, MLS Live, CSN-Washington, TWCSC-OH) in a game that will answer a variety of questions in terms of their viability as a legitimate contender in the Eastern Conference.
Crew SC Playoff Push Starts Saturday
At this point, the postseason is pretty much a foregone conclusion with American Soccer Analysis giving them a 99.4 percent chance of getting in. Heading into weekend play, the Black and Gold are fourth in the East with 44 points. They’re a mere point behind D.C. and the New York Red Bulls and only trail the conference leading New England Revolution by two points. A victory in the nation’s capital has the potential to vault Columbus into first place should the Revs (at Montreal) and Red Bulls (at Portland) falter on the road.
From a big picture standpoint, those four clubs have clearly established themselves as the class of the conference going into the final month and a half of the season. There’s a significant drop off between Crew SC in the four spot and those two teams occupying the final two playoff positions, Toronto FC (37 points) and Montreal (33 points).
There are scenarios whereby which Columbus could clinch a playoff berth at the conclusion of this weekend’s slate of MLS action. A win over D.C. coupled with Orlando City SC either tying or losing on the road to the Chicago Fire would do the trick. Isn’t it nice when your heated rival can help you out like that? Considering those two sides have just a combined ten points over their last seven games, I don’t know what to expect out of that game though.
But I digress. Let’s take a look at a few key things (well, three of them) which can only help in getting the Crew SC playoff push off to a good start, thus establishing some positive momentum heading into the rest of their games including the season finale against this same D.C. United squad.
Will the Trend Befriend the Visitors?
These two sides are in the midst of differing runs of form. Crew SC have won three of their last four both overall and on the road. D.C. United have obtained just a single point from their last four games in a 1-1 draw against Colorado last Saturday. In their defense, four of their last five games have been away from RFK and the Black and Red have only had two home games since August 1st.
After undergoing some well-documented struggles away from Columbus which appeared to derail their Eastern Conference contention chances, winning on the road has suddenly become, dare I say, commonplace for Crew SC. They have the best road record in the league since August. Since getting their first away win of the season against Chicago on July 15th, they’ve had only one loss on the road. Still, none of those away triumphs have been against teams currently in a playoff spot.
The next big breakthrough will be to upend a likely playoff contender. D.C. certainly qualifies, having been at the top of the East for most of the season. The only trend the visitors hope to reverse Saturday is coming out victorious after dropping a 2-0 decision the last time these two teams met in Washington on May 2nd.
To be the best, you have to beat them and doing so on the road is definitely an added bonus.
Can Steve Clark Revert Back to the Mean?
Crew SC goalkeeper Steve Clark has arguably become one of the most beloved figures on the team in the eyes of fans since he joined the club last year. The “YES!’ chant he leads the Nordecke in after home wins is one of many fun and unique supporter group traditions you’ll find around the league.
Clark had a breakout 2014 and his play in goal was a primary reason the club made the postseason. Squawka.com gave him the highest overall performance score of any goalkeeper in MLS. One year later and things have sort of been put in reverse.
2015 has seen a variety of plays that have signified a bit of a step back for Clark. Josh Mlot of MassiveReport.com wrote a piece this week where he details the Crew SC goalie’s struggles compared to last year. In it, he cites American Soccer Analysis data that suggests Clark was punching way above his weight last season in terms of preventing opposing teams from scoring on high percentage opportunities, whereas this year it’s the complete opposite.
Whether it’s lack of decisiveness or poor communication between him and the Crew SC center backs, Clark will need to be better around goal if the Black and Gold want to realize success in D.C. this time around. Specifically, he’ll need to avoid this gaffe which put Columbus two goals down right before halftime.
In summary, consistency will be the key for Clark going forward.
Will Counterattacks Continue to Dog Crew SC?
Head coach and sporting director Gregg Berhalter is undoubtedly married to his system which is highly proactive, possession-oriented and quite dependent on overlapping runs from the club’s outside backs to create chances in the box. It’s one of the reasons Harrison Afful was brought in at right back after a void was apparent when Hernan Grana left in early May.
It’s among the most highly attractive brand of soccer in the league when it works, but can be stifled in frustrating fashion at times if players get caught too far forward.
Tactically proficient coaches, of which D.C.’s Ben Olsen has proven himself to be, know how to game plan for such a system. Concede possession, stay compact defensively thus choking any room for players such as league-leading goal-scorer Kei Kamara to operate and hit them on the counter. Combined with Crew SC’s shaky central defense situation, this approach has been the bane of the club’s existence all year.
Of particular concern is how susceptible this team is to the opposition springing breakaways off Crew SC final third turnovers that turn out to be back-breakers. Take a look at the following three examples in games that Crew SC would eventually go on to lose.
vs. Montreal Impact (June 6th)
D.C. is regularly used to playing and winning while not possessing the ball as much as the opposition. They’ve had 50 percent or more possession just twice in their last 11 games and in their four wins during that span they’ve possessed the ball an average of just 41.6 percent of the time.
So there you have it. If Crew SC can become the benefactors of the current trend form-wise, get improved play from their starting goalkeeper who hasn’t missed a minute of regular season play, and stop getting burned on the counter, they’re capable of beating anyone in this league. The confluence of those three factors may play a part as to whether the Black and Gold vault to the top of the Eastern Conference standings for the first time this season.
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