(Editorial) – Yes, it sounds crazy and completely asinine. They probably should have gotten six points from two matches against FC Montreal. They didn’t. A month ago, it seemed like their playoff hopes were all but fantasy, with injuries and inconsistent play being their down fall. But somehow, Saint Louis FC are still only 6 points below the red line, and within striking distance of a playoff spot.
They currently sit in 8th place in the USL Eastern Conference Standings with 26 points on 23 matches. Most of the conference has games in hand on them.
Their season ends with 5 matches at Richmond, at Rochester, at Harrisburg City, home against Charlotte, and home against Louisville City. Three of those teams are currently in a playoff spot. Harrisburg and Charlotte are immediately above and below Saint Louis FC in the standings, respectively.
By most accounts, Saint Louis FC should not and won’t qualify for the playoffs. But they’ve gotten a result in 4 of their last 6 matches, including taking 4 of 6 points in a home-and-home series with the Charleston Battery. Charleston is currently in a playoff spot, so those results are encouraging.
Here’s what probably needs to happen for Saint Louis FC to have a snow ball’s chance at the playoffs:
1. Win at Richmond, at Harrisburg City, and against Charlotte.
The Charlotte Independence are tied with them on points, but have 3 games in hand. The Harrisburg City Islanders are 5 points ahead of STLFC and have 2 games in hand. Not only does STLFC need to pass a team above the red line, they can’t fall behind anyone else.
The easiest way to do that is win head-to-head matches against those teams. The games at Harrisburg (Sept. 6) and against Charlotte (Sept. 12) are effectively 6 point matches.
The Richmond game is less of a must win, but is still critical. The Kickers are only 7 points ahead of STLFC. A win tonight would cut that to 4 points, with both teams having 4 matches left to play. STLFC still needs to jump a team above the red line. A win in Richmond would be a great start to making up that ground.
2. Hope that Charlotte and Harrisburg do not win their games in hand.
Head Coach Dale Schilly and company will also have to hope that these two teams don’t do well with their games in hand. It is possible that STLFC wins the matches mentioned above, finishes the season strong, and doesn’t make the playoffs simply because these teams pull ahead by winning those extra games.
The same can be said for the game in hand the Pittsburgh Riverhounds, who have one game in hand on STLFC.
3. Get a result at Rochester and against Louisville City.
These could turn out to be must win games anyways, but for the moments, they just need to get points. The Rhinos have been all but perfect at Sahlen’s Stadium, with an 8-0-2 record this season. Getting a draw here would be making up points against the field where most teams haven’t gotten anything.
A draw and a win in these matches against tough opponents would bring their potential record to 4-0-1 to finish the season. That would give them an overall record of 10-9-9, good for 39 points on the season. This a very optimistic assumption.
Assume Harrisburg and Charlotte do not catch up, which a bit more reasonable. Then STLFC need one of Pittsburgh, New York, or Richmond to take only 5 points from their final 5 games. This is as if not more likely than the Harrisburg-Charlotte outcome.
It will take a fall out from at least three teams and a near perfect record for STLFC to make the playoffs. It’s not likely. It probably won’t happen. But it’s what STLFC have to do to try and salvage their season.
Main Photo Courtesy of Mark Guthrel, team photographer of Saint Louis FC.
