Today, it is Thursday which means it is my turn to share my opinions and ideas which are leading me to set my 6-11-15 Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks. The values are based off of DraftKings and based off the contests that start at 7:05 PM EST.
Disclaimer: The below picks are subject to last minute line-up decisions and weather. The early data indicates that the Red Sox-Orioles & Reds-Cubs games could be impacted by weather.
Starting Pitchers
Garrett Richards, SP, Los Angeles Angels, $8,900
There is already a relatively limited slate of games tonight with 6 being covered in the 7:05 PM EST contests and two of those being games where weather could interfere. The crop of quality starting pitching tonight is about as razor thin as it gets, while Richards & Lincecum are not the ideal choices, in terms of talent, they are light years ahead of the other starting pitching options on the menu tonight (the highest priced options beyond these two are Jonathan Niese & Matt Garza).
Thus far, Richards has not had the greatest season (4.14 ERA/4.06 FIP) and he has a 7.36 K/9. However, last season he showed the ability to rack up more strikeouts than this and with tonight’s batch of starting pitching, underachieving but capable of putting up monster performances (he has racked up 20+ points in 4 of his starts) is much better than the other starters that are available.
Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants, $8,100
On the surface, Lincecum is having a modest bounce back as he has a 3.29 ERA (but with a 4.17 FIP) and has seen his K/9 rate go to 7. Like Richards, he has also racked up 20+ points in 4 of his starts even though he is not having his best season. While these aren’t the most impressive totals, this is (sadly) still stronger that the other (mostly back of the rotation/replacement level) choices on the starting pitching menu tonight.
Catcher
Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee Brewers, $3,500
As a Brewers fan, I am glad to see them achieve the moral victory of getting above the .333 mark. They have even won the last two series against the Twins and Pirates. With the above rant about tonight’s starting pitchers, you could be asking yourself what about Tanner Roark?
That is a reasonable question since Roark went 15-10 with a 2.85 ERA/3.47 FIP last season and has a 3.16 ERA this year. However, it is also true that Roark’s FIP (5.73) is higher than his K/9 of 4.14. What I’m trying to get to is the Brewers offense could be set up to have a strong night that could turn out to be one of the very few bright spots on what has been an atrocious season.
This season, Lucroy is hitting .213 with 1 HR and a 46 wRC+. However, this is a bit deceiving as most of these numbers were compiled before he got injured. In the month of June, Lucroy is hitting .314.
First Base
Adam Lind, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers, $4,300
Brewers GM Doug Melvin may be taking some criticism for the current state of the team. However, he does deserve credit for trading Marco Estrada and getting Lind in return. Lind is having a strong season as he is hitting .283 with 9 HR and a 130 wRC+. In addition, he has taken very well to Miller Park as he is hitting .326 at home this season.
Second Base
Anthony Rendon, 2B, Washington Nationals, $4,300
The Nationals could also put up some runs in Milwaukee tonight as the Brewers are staring Matt Garza. While Garza has pitched strongly in his last couple of appearances, he still sports an ERA of 5.09 and an FIP of 4.87.
Rendon has struggled in his first five games this season. However, he has way too much talent to keep hitting this poorly in the short-term and facing Garza may be what he needs to break out of his slump.
Third Base
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals, $3,900
Zimmerman has also under-achieved and has hit especially poorly in June. However, with the Nationals playing in Miller Park, he also has an opportunity to get back on the right path as he is a .276 career hitter with 4 HR when playing in Milwaukee.
Shortstop
Jean Segura, SS, Milwaukee Brewers, $4,100
While Segura hasn’t hit as well as he did in 2013, he has still bounced back from last season’s struggles as he is hitting .287. The month of June has also been good to him as he is hitting .313 this month.
Outfield
Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers, $4,600
Update: The research for these picks was conducted before Braun left last night’s game due to dizziness and he is currently considered to be Day-to-Day. Braun has been switched out of my picks in favor of Hanley Ramirez who is available for the same price. Ramirez has played well so far in June, hitting .355 in 9 games and gets a favorable match-up against Chris Tillman who comes into tonight’s game with a 5.61 ERA. However, this pick could also be subject to change depending on if weather impacts this game.
Even though Braun has an AVG which is lower than last seasons and 41 points below his career total, his power appears to have returned as he has already hit 13 HR this season. This season, he has hit better against righties .277 and hit 12 of his 13 HR against right-handed pitching.
Kole Calhoun, OF, Los Angeles Angels, $4,200
Calhoun has been having a solid season as he is hitting .274 with 5 HR and a wRC+ of 113. His numbers are relatively balanced as his AVG against lefties and righties has historically been similar.
Christian Yelich, OF, Miami Marlins, $4,100
Yelich has not had a very good 2015 as he is only hitting .217. However, some of this could be blamed on bad luck as his BABIP is 71 points below his career total. Tonight, the Marlins are playing at home. This could help him start to turn things around as he has been a better hitter at home than he has on been on the road this season.
All statistics found on fangraphs.com
All statistics through 6/9/15
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