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Pop quiz: Which tennis rivalry has produced the most exciting matches over the last three years? The answer will surprise you.
Obviously, what fans find enjoyable and exciting is subjective. Some prefer aggressive play; other fans might love to see defensive scrambling or counterpunching. Still others might enjoy big servers blasting aces by overmatched opponents. That being granted, we can still see which rivalries trend towards intense, tight matches that include ahh-worthy points.
The gut answer for many would be Djokovic against Rafael Nadal. After all, the most-played rivalry in tennis is a meeting between two all-time greats whose matchup of styles creates exciting points. Each player needs to bring their best to win that match. But Djokovic has won six of the last seven, dropping only one set combined in those six wins. (The lone loss was last year’s French Open final.) And even including a gap in 2012-13 where Djokovic fell apart mentally against Nadal and lost six of seven matches, the fact remains that Djokovic has a 14-7 record against the Mallorcan since the start of 2011.
I will tell you that the matchup that has consistently produced the highest-quality tennis for the past few years, especially at the Grand Slam level, is our French Open final. That’s right. Djokovic and Wawrinka have produced some outstanding tennis their last few meetings.
This matchup really took off in the 2013 Australian Open, where Wawrinka made Djokovic earn every single point in their fourth-round meeting. No one troubled the dominant Djokovic as much that tournament, but Wawrinka was inches away from beating him on several occasions in a match that went to 12-10 in the fifth. The drama of this dead-even matchup continued into the US Open that year, where Djokovic took the fifth set 6-4. Wawrinka got his revenge at the 2014 Australian Open quarterfinal, taking the fifth set 9-7 en route to his sole Grand Slam title. And, lastly, just five months ago the two again went five sets at this year’s Australian Open, where an exhausted Wawrinka capitulated 6-0 in the fifth.
If history is going to teach us anything, expect this match to go the distance. Their last four Grand Slam meetings have gone to a deciding set and both are playing too well right now to expect otherwise:
Wawrinka Keys to the Match
1. No Pressure:
All of the pressure in this match is on Djokovic. All of it. Djokovic is the heavy favorite. Djokovic is the eight-time Grand Slam champion. Djokovic is the one who can never quite get over the hump at Roland Garros. Djokovic is the one who has twice been one win away from the career Grand Slam but has never been able to complete it. Wawrinka only has to keep reminding himself these things to play stress-free tennis.
2. Work the Forehand:
Wawrinka undoubtedly has the best backhand in tennis. It has been the rise in power and consistency of his forehand that took him from being a top 10-20 player to being a Grand Slam champion. Djokovic won’t give Wawrinka opportunities to tee up his backhand and dictate with it. If Wawrinka wants to get his lethal backhand into the match, he will need to intelligently use his forehand to open up the court. More importantly, though, the forehand is the wing of Wawrinka’s that can break down over the course of the match. Wawrinka needs to keep it consistent or we could see a lot of errors fly.
3. Make Djokovic Run:
We saw something very unusual in Djokovic’s semifinal match against Andy Murray; the World #1 looked fatigued at times. The heat was getting to him as were some of the longer rallies. Wawrinka can go toe-to-toe with Djokovic in extended rallies. He will also be the fresher of the two, having played a shorter semifinal. Add that to the fact that Djokovic’s final was pushed overnight and that he is on his third straight day of play and fatigue could become a factor. Well-timed drop shots and wide groundstrokes could eventually wear on the top Serbian.
Djokovic Keys to the Match
1. Take the Ball Early:
Djokovic can stand back in the court and rally all day. We all know this. But past matches should teach that doing that for too long against Wawrinka won’t win too many points. Eventually the Swiss #2 can overpower him from the baseline. Djokovic needs to be in control of the rallies, stepping in and playing his aggressive defense from at the baseline or just inside it. That will take the time Wawrinka needs to hit his powerful groundstrokes away from him.
2. Make Wawrinka Hit the Extra Ball:
This is really a point that Rafael Nadal exemplified best here at Roland Garros for the last decade. When you constantly make opponents hit good shot after good shot, they will make a mistake. Wawrinka’s consistency has improved dramatically over the past few years. And yet, he is still not consistently going deep in big tournaments for a reason. If Djokovic can constantly force Wawrinka to hit an extra ball to win the point, the Swiss man might eventually get frustrated and start going for too much. It has happened before. Wawrinka will need to be in extreme mental control to keep it from happening again.
3. Stay Relaxed
Djokovic has been the best player in the world coming into each of the last four French Opens. In 2011, it was the stress of a 42-match winning streak and underestimating a perfectly-playing Roger Federer in the semifinals that cost him. In 2012 it was a controversial rain-delayed final against Rafael Nadal and changing conditions from wet one day to dry the other that did him in. In 2013, Djokovic couldn’t come through against Nadal and the pressure eventually got to him when he hit three errors and a double fault to lose the 16th game of the final set. Last year, Djokovic just couldn’t find his form in the final. Roland Garros is quickly becoming a place where Djokovic just can’t put it all together in the biggest of moments. He already got the “can’t beat Nadal here” monkey off his back this year. Is it time for him to win the title too?
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