The wheat has been separated from the chaff in Rome, as 16 players remain in the final Masters tournament on clay of the 2015 season, the Internazionali BNL D’Italia. The full round of 16 will be played on Thursday in the Italian capital, and here is a preview of the action.
(1)Novak Djokovic vs. (Q)Thomaz Bellucci
Novak Djokovic is a heavy favorite, and for good reason, but the qualifier Thomaz Bellucci can take some comfort in the fact he’s won a set off the world number 1 back in 2011 on clay (in Madrid), and the previous time they played in Rome it was a competitive two set affair. Additionally, Novak was pushed hard by Nicolas Almagro in his opening match, dropping a set to the Spaniard, and Bellucci has been in fine form himself with a 9-2 record over his past three tournaments (lost in Istanbul quarters and qualified in Madrid). Bellucci has powerful groundstrokes, but struggles with his consistency at times, and Djokovic should be too solid defensively to be in trouble in this match. Djokovic in 2 is the pick.
(5)Kei Nishikori vs. Viktor Troicki
Kei Nisihkori is favored to extend his record to 9-1 on clay in 2015 over Viktor Troicki, who was struggling mightily coming into this tournament but has found form over the past few days. Nishikori battled past streaky young gun Jiri Vesely in his opening match, and though he hasn’t looked as good here, and in Madrid, than he did in Barcelona, he still should be good enough to defeat Troicki who he has beaten twice on clay previously. Troicki is also likely to be fatigued, coming off a pair of three set wins over Bernard Tomic, and Feliciano Lopez. Nishikori in 2.
(3)Andy Murray vs. David Goffin
This is the hardest match of the round of 16 to predict, given nobody would blame Andy Murray for strategically losing this one in order to rest up and prepare for the French Open after marathon consecutive titles in Munich and Madrid. Without context, he’d be favored over the clean ball striker David Goffin who he has only played on grass and beaten handily, but in this case I’m going with Goffin in 3. The Belgian is at his best on clay and has already has his best tournament of the Spring clay season by reaching the round of 16 here. He comes off an upset win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in 3 sets, and that should inspire him enough to outlast Murray, who is likely to have his focus on Roland Garros at this point, not Rome.
(7)David Ferrer vs. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
David Ferrer hasn’t dropped a set against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez on clay en route to a 3-0 record against him on the surface, and he should once again be too consistent for his lower ranked countryman. The Spanish grinder won a blockbuster second round match against Richard Gasquet in straight sets, and I see little reason why he wouldn’t defeat Garcia-Lopez, even though the veteran is having a career year. GGL has beaten Marin Cilic, and Alex Dolgopolov, solid competitors without dropping a set as well. Ferrer in 2
(8)Stan Wawrinka vs. Dominic Thiem
Last year on clay in Madrid, Dominic Thiem recovered from a breadstick first set to stun, the then top 5 Stan Wawrinka, now circumstances are slightly different as Thiem has developed into a regular on the ATP World Tour mainstage, and Wawrinka is in the midst of a slump. With that in mind, Thiem actually has a great chance at a big upset in this match, but his reliability has been a question mark all season. The Austrian scored a pair of solid wins over Simone Bolelli, and Gilles Simon in a tough section of the draw, while Wawrinka dropped a set to Juan Monaco but recovered to win. In his previous two tournaments on clay, Monte Carlo, and Madrid, Wawrinka has failed to get past the round of 16, and I’m backing that trend to continue with Thiem in 3 as the pick.
(4)Rafael Nadal vs. (16)John Isner
If not for the erratic and disastrous performance Rafael Nadal put up in the Madrid final, the buzz would actually be building that he’s finally getting back to his previous stardom on clay, but given how poorly he played in that match, after a strong week in Madrid, question marks still remain, and he will again have to dispel them in this interesting matchup with John Isner, a big server who actually hasn’t had a bad clay court season by his standards and beat a pair of baselining clay courters, Joao Sousa, and Leo Mayer to reach this stage. Isner is 7-3 on clay in 2015 with a quarterfinal in Madrid and he did once push Nadal to five sets at the French Open (0-3 on clay against him). This match should be closer than many expect, but Nadal is the favorite and should edge through, perhaps in a pair of tiebreaks, as the business end of the tournament will again be the sternest test for him, with form watch for RG still on. Nadal in 2
(6)Tomas Berdych vs. Fabio Fognini
Goffin-Murray is the hardest round of 16 match to pick, but Berdych-Fognini could be the most competitive if Fabio rises to the occasion on home soil and gives Tomas Berdych a battle on center court. Fognini had been struggling all season, and has been poor against most opponents not named Rafael Nadal, but he just upset Grigor Dimitrov in 3 sets, and seems renewed, and perhaps more focused playing in front of a favorable home crowd. That said, Berdych is very much a machine and he is the favorite to get his first win on clay over Fognini, after two previous losses. Once again he lost deep in a tournament against a member of the big four, as he reached the semis in Madrid, losing to Nadal and he has yet to lose before the quarterfinal stage of any tournament in 2015, though he lacks a title. I see Fognini at least getting a set here, but I don’t see him maintaining the level Berdych is at, and thus Berdych in 3 is the pick.
(2)Roger Federer vs. (15)Kevin Anderson
Roger Federer shouldn’t have too much trouble with the South African #1 Kevin Anderson, given this is clay. Anderson has had a bit of luck reaching the round of 16, after struggling in his past couple of tournaments, as his round 2 opponent Philipp Kohlschreiber retired with injury, and prior to that, his round 1 opponent Florian Mayer was in poor form. Federer has suffered shock early losses in Monte Carlo, and Madrid, but Anderson is not the type of opponent who is likely to defeat him on this surface, and just about every factor favors the Swiss, thus Federer in 2 is the pick.
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