Last week, practically half of the world turned in for “THE FIGHT.” What they saw was anything but. Devoid of any real action or drama, it is best to assume that the casual audience was no more enticed to subscribe to the sweet science now than ever before. If only they waited one more week. On Saturday, May 9th HBO will try to wow us loyalists and if all goes well pick up those disenfranchised from the prior week’s epic failure.
In the key match of the evening we get the Mexican idol and proposed future superstar, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez taking on the ultra-gritty, always entertaining Texan slugger, James Kirkland. The defensively inept and heavy-handed Kirkland will look to hand Canelo his second loss.
Canelo vs Kirkland: A Gambler’s Prediction
Alvarez will look to continue taking out highly-touted tough fighters after his loss to Mayweather two years ago. The classic volume puncher, Canelo, will look to impose his will on the always perplexing chin of Kirkland. What this should mean for us is a thriller of a boxing match.
To help better put this into perspective, let’s do some quick math. Of their combined 78 professional fights, an astounding 60 have ended in KO. That’s a whopping 77% KO ratio. Although not a guarantee, that is about as definitive of a forecast for fireworks that one will ever see. Let’s take a look at some of the additional factors heading into the match and how they play out into our final decision on who wins this much-hyped slugfest.
RING RUST KO.
Not withstanding each man’s heavy hands and propensity to slug it out, no factor is perhaps more important that the inactivity of both fighters. Both men are coming off long layoffs. Alvarez in particular is coming off the longest stretch of inactivity of his entire career. When he finally steps into the ring it will be almost 10 months since his last fight. That is nothing compared to Kirkland though. He last saw action way back in December of 2013. Unfortunately for Kirkland this has been a consistent pattern throughout his career. Plagued with legal troubles that first stemmed from an armed robbery conviction in 2003, he has seen additional time served behind bars after being caught with firearms and an assault charge back in 2013. These infractions have seen Kirkland’s output greatly diminished, to the tune of only 9 fights in the past 6 years. For a man who just turned 31 the time out of the ring has greatly hampered the greatness that could have been achieved in the ring. It will be interesting to see how these absences from the ring impact the performance of the pugilists.
THE CURIOUS CASE OF ANN WOLFE
With every Kirkland bout as much is made about who is in his corner as there is about the man himself. He has most famously been cornered by living legend, Ann Wolfe. The relationship between these two has been one of the most notable and tumultuous in boxing history. After his criminal digressions, Kirkland attempted to pick up the pieces on his own and sought counsel elsewhere. The results were disastrous. He was handed his only loss, a humbling knockout from pillow-handed Nobuhiro Ishida.
Downed three times in the first and only round of the fight, the fighting community was quick to point out the absence of Wolfe. Reunited shortly thereafter, Kirkland resumed his tear through the competition. The high points being gutsy KO’s of Alfredo Angulo and Glen Tapia. Tapia was his last fight and now apparently his last with Wolfe (again). Many believe that without the firm hand of Wolfe steering the ship, Kirkland is bound to veer off course. Saturday will reveal the truth of this forewarning.
A MAN ON FIRE
We have spent quite a bit of time outlining some of the important factors surrounding Kirkland. Now let’s turn our attention to Alvarez. There are a few distinctions to make. One that is often overlooked is the chin of Canelo. Perhaps not promoted as strong as iron it is still very durable. Saul has never been down in any of his professional contests. On the flip side, Canelo has never been in the ring with a puncher who has Kirkland’s power.
Also, much was made of the tough 12 round fight with Erislandy Lara (his last fight to date). Lara represented the stiffest challenge Alvarez had faced outside of Floyd Mayweather. Since the loss to Floyd, Canelo has been on a mission to prove himself as this generation’s version of Julio Cesar Chavez, or Oscar De La Hoya at the very least. To do this, he has taken on an impressive workload, facing off against some of the most avoided fighters in the division.
His first step back to glory was against the awfully rough and rugged, Alfredo Angulo. Ten rounds of battering ultimately led to a TKO for Canelo. He next sought to fight the incredibly slick, Cuban phenom Lara. Sandwiching an incredible technician between two world-renowned brawlers is evidence of Alvarez’s quest to pick up the torch as Mexico’s next great champion. Currently there is a huge void with Chavez Jr. on the downward spin. Saturday’s fight capped off with an impressive stoppage would catapult Canelo to heights even higher than he has already occupied.
THE ULTIMATE PREDICTION
On Saturday, what will play out? The relentless pressure of the Mexican or the wrecking ball fists of the hardened Texan? I believe it’s imperative we keep in mind the chin and skill of Canelo. Although Floyd outclassed and Lara outworked Canelo, there could be no greater polar opposite to that style than Kirkland.
Ultimately, I believe that as the rounds go by and the Texan has difficulty finding and connecting on Canelo his spirit will break. With the absence of Wolfe it will be interesting to see the shape he comes into the ring. If he is not conditioned to go the full twelve it is not inconceivable for Canelo to shut him down in the championship rounds and score a late stoppage.
Currently, 5Dimes only has straight up picks available for this fight. Canelo comes in at -600. An overwhelming favorite and rightfully so. I see that price as probably correct but still a little too high. Once the prop bets become available I would look to see where the Over/Under lands. If pegged correctly, I would lean towards the over as I believe this fight will go to the scorecards. When they are finally read I think it will be a comfortable decision for Alvarez. The closer to even money the prop for Alvarez by Decision is will most likely be the most value for your money.
In any scenario, I am heavily betting this fight will be far more entertaining than what we saw a week ago.
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