Now that we’re a couple games in, let’s take inventory of the Western Conference to assess each team’s chances of winning the conference and earning the right to go against the East’s winner in the NBA Finals.
Still Got a Chance? Examining Each Western Conference Team’s Chances of Reaching The NBA Finals
8) New Orleans Pelicans: <1%
While New Orleans would seemingly have no chance of coming back to win this series, they’re chances of advancing to the Finals are even slimmer. From top to bottom, their roster simply does not match up well against Golden State (or any other team from the West, for that matter). They have Anthony Davis, who is one of the five best players on the planet, and they’re technically still alive, so their chances are greater than zero, but only by tenths of a percentage point.
7) Dallas Mavericks: <1%
Dallas’ situation just keeps getting worse. They’re season looked bright to start, but the Rondo trade went horribly awry, and now Rondo is out indefinitely and Chandler Parsons definitely out for the remainder of the playoffs. Additionally, when Tyson Chandler sits and the Mavericks front court is Dirk Nowitzki and Amar’e Stoudemire, their defense can be exposed by anybody.
6) Portland Trail Blazers: <1%
Despite the higher seed, Portland does not have home court in this series, which hurts their chances of advancing. Also hurting their chances to advance: They’re hurting. They haven’t been the same team since Wesley Matthews went out, and their most important player (LaMarcus Aldridge) is playing hurt. They could advance out of this round yet, but they have virtually no chance of representing the West in the Finals. Sometimes making noise in the playoffs comes down being on the right or wrong side of a few breaks, whether it be bounces of the ball, calls from refs, or injuries. In the Western Conference, almost all the breaks have gone against Portland and Dallas.
5) Memphis Grizzlies: 12%
The Grizzlies are the most physical team in all the playoffs — not just the West — which leads to match-up problems for other teams. Few teams can defend both Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. However, Memphis lacks ideal depth and probably won’t have enough shooting to get past the West’s best. Plus, if an opponent can up the tempo, it gets Memphis our of their comfort zone, their chances would dramatically increase if they were able to play different tempos a little more effortlessly.
4) Los Angeles Clippers: 18%
The odds for Los Angeles and San Antonio probably flip-flopped after the Spurs stole home court from L.A. Tuesday night in an overtime thriller. The Clippers, however, still deserve to be recognized as being one of the most talented teams in the league. Despite being the only West team to lose one of their first two home games, Los Angeles still has as good of a chance to advance to the Finals as higher-seeded Houston, and roughly the same as their first-round counterpart. Still, Los Angeles has obvious weaknesses, mainly defending the wing and overall depth.
3) Houston Rockets: 18%
Houston would seem to check all the boxes of a title contender: They have at least one superstar, good shooters, play solid defense, can play different styles, and can match anybody in terms of athleticism. Although they’re the 2-seed, this might be the only series Houston is the favorite to win, making their path especially tough. The Rockets should cruise through the first round, but then would face either the Clippers or Spurs in Round 2, then (if seeding holds up) Golden St. A tough task for any team.
2) San Antonio Spurs: 21%
San Antonio gave themselves a little boost by beating the Clippers in Game 2. Given their experience, championship pedigree, and ability to have a coaching advantage over any team they go against, the Spurs deserve to be given the second best odds to make it out of the West, despite the low seed and being tied 1-1 to the Clippers. Even in their victory, the Spurs didn’t look as impressive as perhaps was expected, but that is the essence of this team: winning when all indicators say otherwise.
1) Golden State Warriors: 30%
Golden State deserves to be the favorite after having the best record, most efficient offense, most efficient defense, and best point differential during the regular season. They have showed no signs of slowing down through the first two games of their playoff series. They have the offensive fire-power to give any defense fits and defensive flexibility to defend anybody inside or out.
