Fantasy Profile: Curtis Granderson, OF, New York Mets

Welcome back to the 2015 Last Word on Fantasy Baseball Guide.  Over the next several months we will be releasing player profiles, projections, position rankings, and a number of other articles that will help you dominate your fantasy league this season.  Whether you play rotisserie or head-to-head; whether you have a standard draft, a snake or an auction league, and whether its keeper league or a one-year deal; we have all the fantasy information you need.

For the rest of our fantasy baseball profiles and articles, please check out our Fantasy Baseball Guide Page.

Fantasy Profile: Curtis Granderson, OF, New York Mets

LWOS Ranking 55, Captain’s Value: $2.79

When the Mets signed Curtis Granderson to a 4-year deal, they were likely expecting something resembling the 40+ HR power he had displayed playing for the Yankees and the double-digit SB totals he had displayed most of his career.

Even though there would be reasonably drop off in power going from Yankee Stadium to Citi Field, it is safe to expect that the Mets (and fantasy owners) were hoping for something better than the .227 AVG and 20 HR that he hit last year. One thing that initally pops out through last year’s numbers is that his BABIP was 35 points below his career total and his HR/FB rate was well below his career totals. Even with these fluctuations in his numbers, odds are against Granderson going back to being a fantasy baseball star.

While Granderson has a .300 career BABIP, this total is inflated by higher BABIP totals that he had when he was younger, faster and playing for the Tigers. Last year was the second time in three seasons that his BABIP was in the .260s indicating that an AVG similar to .227 is more likely than not in 2015. Also, this was the second consecutive season that his HR/FB rate has decreased. While one could argue that this has been a factor of bad luck, this combined with the way that the rest of his numbers are trending indicates that age and eroding skills is the likey culprit in the decrease in his power totals.

Granderson currently has a 264.0 ADP at FantasyPros which means that he’s most likely to be picked in the 22^nd round. Despite the concerns listed above, he could still help your team by giving you some additional power on your bench and towards the end of your draft.

Main Photo