As expected, the Western Conference playoff race is coming down to the wire, but the Vancouver Canucks have as good an opportunity as any of the teams on the bubble to make the post-season – if only they can take advantage of the fortuitous schedule in front of them.
Breaking Down the Vancouver Canucks Playoff Chances
This Canucks club has, over the last few years, shown a worrying propensity for playing down to the competition. We’ve seen this bad habit rear its ugly head again over the last month, with wins over top teams like the Chicago Blackhawks, the St. Louis Blues, and the New York Rangers offset by disappointing losses to the New Jersey Devils, the Arizona Coyotes, and the Buffalo Sabres.
Despite this, the Canucks have built themselves a cushion, though a rather uncomfortable one, over the rest of the pack chasing down a playoff spot. Vancouver is currently sitting second behind the Anaheim Ducks in the Pacific Division with 84 points, while the Los Angeles Kings have 82, the Calgary Flames have 81, and the San Jose Sharks (who are fading faster and faster) have 76. The Canucks also have a game-in-hand on all those clubs.
On the Central Division side of the ledger, St. Louis, Chicago, and the Nashville Predators have a sizable lead, while the Minnesota Wild and the Winnipeg Jets hold both of the Western Conference wildcard spots with 85 and 82 points, respectively (and the Canucks also have a game-in-hand on both of those teams as well).
Sorry Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars fans, for all intents and purposes those two clubs are barely hanging in the playoff race (according to sportsclubstats, the Avs have a 3.8% shot, while the Stars are only at 0.7%).
So, Vancouver not only has a bit of a leg up on their Pacific brethren, but should they drop out of the top three in the division, they still are in good standing in the wildcard race (and having 36 ROW’s – regulation or overtime wins, the tie-breaker for playoff seeding – certainly helps).
In addition to their current standing, the remaining schedule is what will ultimately make-or-break the 2014-15 Canucks, and they’ll need to reverse the unfortunate trend of losing to bottom-feeders if they want to take advantage of it.
Just how advantageous is Vancouver’s schedule, you might ask? Of the clubs remaining 13 games, seven are at home (where the Canucks boast a tidy 20-13-1 record), with just a four-game trip to face the Blues, Predators, Blackhawks and Jets breaking up what is otherwise a nice run of home games. Also, with only two back-to-backs left on the schedule, it should afford a team who just recently got back to health some time for proper rest and to find their groove.
However, the absolute key in all of this is how Vancouver responds to playing team below them in the standings. The only teams above them left on the schedule for the Canucks are the aforementioned Blues, Predators, and Blackhawks. With two games each against the Kings, Jets and Coyotes, not to mention what should be some relatively winnable matchups against the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Edmonton Oilers (in the final game of the season), the Avalanche and the Stars, the Canucks have a very real opportunity to not only keep control of their own destiny, but also to go into the playoffs on a hot streak.
In order to do that however, they simply must reverse the trend of playing down to the competition and snatch these valuable points that are there for the taking. Granted, the Canucks will be incredibly fortunate to run the table against these lower-seeded clubs (particularly the Kings and Jets, who are very good teams fighting for their playoff lives), but it’s not impossible they can close out the final 13 games of the season with a better record, based on their more advantageous schedule, than the team directly behind them in the standings.
Adding to the optimism is the team’s impressive victories over the Toronto Maple Leafs and Philadelphia Flyers in the last week. Sure, beating the Leafs and the Flyers this season is no great accomplishment for any team, but home games against Toronto on Hockey Night in Canada and then three days later against Philly on a night the team honored the great Pat Quinn had all the trappings of the type of games where the Canucks just don’t get their head on straight from the start and end up losing. The fact that they stayed focused despite all those distractions, not to mention the pressure of the playoff race going on around them, and managed to come away with four more points in their pockets is perhaps an indication that this team is already in a playoff mindset – a dangerous proposition for the other bubble teams in the West.
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