Fantasy Profile: Todd Frazier, 3B, Cincinnati Reds

Welcome back to the 2015 Last Word on Fantasy Baseball Guide.  Over the next several months we will be releasing player profiles, projections, position rankings, and a number of other articles that will help you dominate your fantasy league this season.  Whether you play rotisserie or head-to-head; whether you have a standard draft, a snake or an auction league, and whether its keeper league or a one-year deal; we have all the fantasy information you need.

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FANTASY PROFILE: TODD FRAZIER, 3B, CINCINNATI REDS

LWOS RANKING 3, CAPTAIN’S VALUE: $14.42

Before last season, Todd Frazier had established himself as a decent 3B option or at least a CI option in mixed leagues. He was one of the bigger surprises of 2014, as he fell just one home run short of a 30/20 season and turned in career highs in fantasy stats across the board.

Opinions on whether or not regression is likely for Frazier go both ways. The naysayers point to the fact that he strikes out too much, the power is unsustainable due to big increases in HR/FB% and batted ball distance, and the speed was a fluke because he previously had never even attempted more than 11 steals in a big league season, so now pitchers/catchers will be ready for him to attempt stolen bases.

The believers will point out that none of his peripherals really changed that much in his breakout season. His BB and SO rates were near his career rates; same with his BABIP and batted balls splits (ground ball, line drive, and fly ball percentages). They will also point out that he has flashed speed before (he had SB totals of 14 in 2010 and 17 in 2011 while in the Cincinnati Reds’ farm system), but the reason he attempted so few in the majors before 2014 was because he never got the green light from Dusty Baker. Bryan Price apparently gave him and many others the green light on the base paths when he took over last season.

The most likely and most boring answer about Frazier is that 2014 is his ceiling and 2013 is his floor, meaning he will be somewhere in between the two for the future. We may not see 30/20 from him again, but a few years of 25/10 is nothing to scoff at, especially at a position that is not nearly as deep as it used to be.

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