North Carolina was in good shape at the end of December. They had a quality 10-3 non-conference record that included wins over no. 22 UCLA, no. 18 Florida, and no. 12 Ohio State. Their losses — against Butler, Iowa, and no. 1 Kentucky — didn’t raise red flags. Butler, Iowa, and Kentucky are all expected to make the tournament in Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology. The “quality” wins, or lack thereof, is the problem for a Tar Heel team that no one seems to understand. UCLA is barely in the tournament, while Florida has been effectively axed from an at-large bid. Ohio State destroyed Indiana and Maryland at home (who hasn’t?), but those are their only Top 50 RPI wins. Looking back, we really had no idea who North Carolina was in non-conference play.
That said, 10-3 is 10-3.
Is North Carolina Legitimate?
Conference play is a whole different game, though. Being challenged night in and night out is not an easy thing — physically and mentally — for collegiate student-athletes, and it can be easy to overlook a team or two during the season. To their credit, the Tar Heels have done no such thing.
North Carolina is 8-0 against conference opponents who have a RPI of 51 or worse. Other than Florida State, they have beaten every team by at least nine, showing a clear dominance when the talent level is in their favor. Overall, the Tar Heels are 16-1 when facing opponents who have a RPI of 51 or worse. Their only loss was to Iowa, who sports a 53 RPI rating. They beat every one of those non-conference opponents by double digits.
It is obvious that North Carolina plays well against bad teams and usually ends up blowing them out. That is a tricky trait to deal with, though. When the NCAA tournament rolls around, the Tar Heels will be playing quality schools, which has been a problem for them this season.
North Carolina is 4-8 against RPI Top 50 opponents this season, and a lousy 1-5 against RPI Top 25 opponents. Their one win came against a now depleted Louisville team, thanks to an incredible scoop-shot game-winner from Marcus Paige. The Tar Heels just have a bad knack of playing poorly against top competition, so you can see why it’s hard to gauge them. They have enough talent to win some of these tough games; they have to figure out mentally what they need to do when the margin of error shrinks.
Those numbers are not pretty for the Tar Heels, but they do have some numbers that would make you think they could get the job done in March. They lead the nation in assists per game (17.8), and that could be an important number when playing against a tough defensive team in the tournament. The power of moving the ball will open up lanes for athletes like Brice Johnson and J.P. Tokoto. Moving the ball will also open up rebounding lanes for those guys, where North Carolina is ranked second in the country. They come in at number five in the country in defensive rebounding as well.
That said, North Carolina has some numbers that make you think they cannot get the job done in March. Their defense is poor, and that’s being nice. They are 237th (!!) in points allowed this season including giving up 89 points to Pittsburgh and 93 points to Syracuse. Locking down on the other end is just as important as putting the ball in the basket, especially in the NCAA tournament. They also shoot the three ball at a ridiculously bad rate, only making 33 percent of them as a team. No single player is shooting over 40 percent — Paige and Nate Britt are each shooting 38 percent to lead the team — which can be a big downfall come tournament time. We have seen for years that a team’s ability to shoot the rock can bring them back into games and maybe even allow them to pull off an upset. You can’t expect such a thing from the Tar Heels.
The North Carolina Tar Heels are the most polarizing team in the potential field of 68 this year, and for good reason. They beat up on bad teams, but lose to good ones. They do some things really well, but they are weak in other areas.
To simplify, we do not know what kind of team the Tar Heels are, and we do not know what they are capable of. This is the kind of team that can be exploited and lose their first game, or somehow carry themselves to a Final Four by focusing on their strengths. North Carolina will be an interesting team to watch either way; that is for sure.
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