It’s the “Granddaddy Of Them All.” It’s the bowl game that beats all bowl games. It has the prestige. It has the history. It has the parade.
And now, it’s a national semifinal.
In a way, this is a step down for the Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl was consistently the most-watched of the BCS Bowls in that era, aside from the national championship game. The stadium hosted four BCS NCGs, though that is gone now.
Still, that will in no way detract from what should be a heck of a game. And it is more than fitting that college football’s most historic game gets one more historic moment: hosting college football’s first-ever national semifinal. But enough intro, onto the game.
Oregon Offense vs Florida State Defense:
This is, on paper, the bigger mismatch of the game. Oregon’s offense is set up, at its core, as a zone read offense that will score a touchdown whenever the defense makes a mistake. Which defenders are most important in defending the zone read? The linebacker. Where is Florida State weakest on defense? You got it, the linebackers.
All season, Florida State’s opponents have found creases running the ball and once they get to the second level, defenders are often nowhere to be seen. The Seminoles have had over three weeks to prepare for this, but if their defense hasn’t made huge strides during the bowl practices, this could be a long night.
Of course, the counter to the Oregon offense is to get penetration across the line and never let the runners get upfield in the first place. You can’t make a zone read when there are no holes anyway. This is what Arizona has done so well in both of their upsets of Oregon in the last two years. Florida State can take a lot of pressure off of their linebackers if they can win the battle in the trenches (they do have a size advantage) and stop Oregon’s offense before it starts.
Of course, getting pressure on 2014 Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota is not the same as tackling him. He is incredibly elusive and his receivers do an excellent job getting open down the field. Florida State has an elite secondary, though, and can probably match up well with Oregon’s receivers. No one has yet had consistent success throwing against the Seminoles this year, but then again no offense as good as Oregon has played them.
Florida State Offense vs Oregon Defense
Oregon’s defense is an underrated unit. Statistically, they don’t do well, but a large part of that is that they face more possessions than most college defenses. They do more than enough to win games when paired with one of the best offenses that college football has ever seen, but they are not going to win championships on their own.
Florida State’s offense, on the other hand, is what this team has been riding all year. Or, at least, during the second halves of games. When last year’s Heisman recipient Jameis Winston and his NFL-caliber receivers are clicking, no one has been able to stop the Seminoles. And don’t expect Oregon to stop them either. That is, in reality, what this game will likely come down to. Can Winston and the Florida State offense keep up with Oregon? It is very unlikely that Florida State stops the Ducks too much. So the major onus of winning this game will fall on Winston and the offense keeping up.
If both offenses are playing up to their potential, this game could come down to one great defensive stop–or one poor offensive mistake.
Intangibles/Others:
It feels foolish listing intangibles, but we can identify other things that can affect this game. First of all, special teams is a big one (and not so intangible). Florida State has one of the best kickers in the country in Roberto Aguayo. You won’t beat Oregon by winning field goals, but Florida State knows that if push comes to shove, they can count on an immensely talented kicker for just about anything.
This isn’t a home game for Oregon, but it might feel like one. Florida State did not sell out their allotment as fans are saving up for a potential second trip a week later, which probably means that most of the fans in the Rose Bowl will be wearing green.
One final thing that cannot be overstated is experience. Mariota and Oregon are experienced winners. But they have never been in a game this big this late in the season. I expect them to come out sharp, but could we see a nervous moment or two? Unlikely, but maybe. Winston, on the other hand, has been here before. He’s done all of this. And he finally has his massive personal elephant out of the room. No matter what he has said, it’s clear that something has been affecting and maybe distracting him this year. With the Code of Conduct investigation over, we might see Winston more relaxed on the field.
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