NC State Wolfpack (6-5) at North Carolina Tar Heels (6-5), 12:30 PM, ESPN3, ACC Network
Line: UNC -6.5 Over/Under: 69
The Wolfpack and Tar Heels come into the regular season finale with identical records and a little momentum on their sides. Both arrived at those records in similar fashion with four game losing streaks during the year.
UNC’s skid dropped them from the national polls and put the pressure on their defense to stop the bleeding after giving up 50 points in three out of four games.
UNC vs NC State: The Scoreboard Operator Will Earn Their Keep
However, one of those three games was a nail-biter in South Bend against Notre Dame. In a losing effort, the Tar Heels put a huge dent in the Mercedes defense Notre Dame was commandeering. Since that game, the Irish have wilted and lost four games. While the Heels didn’t pull off the upset that day, it was a confidence booster and they’ve since won four games.
NC State had little expectations after going winless in the ACC last season, and their four game losing streak was a redo of last year’s opening conference nosedive. But, unlike last year, the Wolfpack will not get blanked in conference, as they’ve gotten two wins already.
Those two wins came against Syracuse and Wake Forest, the only two ACC schools who are eliminated from the bowl picture as of this writing. The Orange and Demon Deacons have six wins between them, and haven’t posed a threat to anyone this year. This NC State team has beaten these types of teams, taking care of the bottom dwellers while climbing up the ACC ladder themselves.
UNC and NC State have no shot at Florida State and the ACC title, but they can position themselves for better bowl games. Both teams’ bowl hopes seemed dire about a month ago, after both went on their respective losing streaks. Both squads got their six wins, and have put their early season woes behind them.
Whole Lotta Points
The spread opened at eight, but keeps dropping. Currently it’s UNC favored by six and a half. Vegas has the over/under set at 69. That’s a ridiculous number, but there’s potential for a slew of points in Kenan Stadium.
I’m taking the over in this one. Sixty-nine total points is a boatload, but the Heels did surrender that many to one team: East Carolina. UNC has turned things around, and that game seems like forever ago. They are cooking with gas at the right time of the year, and NC State may run into a confident defense.
Defense Optional
No matter how confident or capable UNC’s defense seemed against Duke, they haven’t shown any consistency this year. Their defense will be the X factor in this game. NC State won’t be stopping UNC from doing what it wants on most drives, so it’ll be up to UNC to help their offense by stopping the Pack. I don’t see a lot of punting in this game.
UNC’s defense will probably be somewhere in between East Carolina bad and Duke good. Duke didn’t even get into double-digits until late in the third quarter. ECU put 14 on the board in the first quarter against the Heels.
UNC rode their momentum in Durham and stifled the Blue Devils, who are now on a losing streak of their own, and have lost their shot at the ACC Championship Game.
NC State can score against a bad defense, and UNC is 122nd best in that category. If State is competent in their offensive execution they can stay in the game with the Heels.
State has improved on their porous defense that got them in an 0-4 hole in ACC play. They slipped back into early conference form against Georgia Tech, giving up 56 points. If that Wolfpack defense shows up in Chapel Hill, it will be a long day and they could give up 56 (or more) for the third time this season.
Key Matchups
Quarterbacks Marquise Williams vs. Jacoby Brissett
These two won’t be on the field at the same time, but they’ll be the key for the winning team. Williams will do more with his feet as opposed to Brissett, but both can move around in the pocket. Neither defense can brag about being tough, but a quarterback still has to make plays. No matter how wide open a receiver gets, these two can’t afford to miss too many throws. There will be ample opportunities for both to hit wide-open receivers.
Wide Receivers vs. Defensive Secondaries
The defensive backs for both teams will need electrolytes when this one’s in the books. I think the respective receivers will get behind the backs all day long. One on one matchups will results in long touchdown passes for both teams, and a flurry of points. Whoever can control the opponent’s passing game will give their team a chance to win. NC State’s Bo Hines and UNC’s Ryan Switzer should be licking their chops at the chance to break away for a few scores Saturday.
Bold Predictions:
UNC busts out another iffy uniform, leaving their traditional Carolina blue in the closet. I don’t even recall what those looked like.
Both QBs throw for over 250 yards. Williams might get that in the first half.
Brissett throws multiple picks. UNC showed they could create turnovers against turnover-obsessed Everett Golson.
I think the Wolfpack keeps it close until the half, maybe into the third quarter. The Tar Heels go into the locker room with a 28-23 lead. If UNC scores 28 in the first quarter I won’t be shocked.
UNC holds the Pack at bay in the third, pours it on in the fourth, wins it 55-37.
With both teams going bowling, UNC gets to 7-5 and a trip to Annapolis for the Military Bowl against the Memphis Tigers.
A 6-6 NC State gets an invite to the Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl to take on the Houston Cougars.
Both teams come out of bowl season with a win.
No one’s locker room gets vandalized.
The scoreboard overheats from all the points, blows up and dies. Like this.
Main Photo: AP Photo/Gerry Broome
