For the purposes of determining quality wins in our CFP Bubble Watch, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason that the gap between #25 and #26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between #24 and #25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (AP, Coaches’, and CFP rankings) or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes. This leads to the awkwardness of there being more than 25 Top 25 teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume. The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large but they do give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is.
WIth their loss this week, we eliminated Mississippi. Also, Kansas State is probably eliminated already but we will leave them on the board for now. By my count, there are 12 teams remaining who can actually still hope to make the CFP.
In Right Now (i.e. controls own destiny):
|
Team |
vs 1-10 |
vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range |
T25 remaining |
|
Florida State |
0-0 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 3-0 | 45-65 |
1 |
The Seminoles SOS range is not so pretty, but it’s not as bad as some would have you believe. This resume is not bad overall and they will faced a (possibly) ranked Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game. It is noteworthy that they are outside of the Top 10 of some computer power rankings, which is not good for them if the committee sticks with their subjective “game control” nonsense. They don’t want to risk losing a game, especially now that most of the meat is gone, but they are not definitely out if they do—as some would want you to believe.
|
Team |
vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| Oregon | 2-0 | 0-1 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 15-40 | 1 |
Five games against Top 40 teams isn’t crazy but makes a solid resume, especially when those two Top 10 wins (more than anyone else in the country) are added in.. Also consider the fact that the Ducks had a ton of injuries in their loss, and it’s very clear that Oregon controls their own destiny. Win out and they are in.
|
Team |
vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| Alabama | 1-0 | 1-1 | 5-0 | 0-0 | 3-0 | 1-20 |
1 |
Eight of the Tide’s opponents are in the Top 40 right now, with another one (Auburn) still to come. Western Carolina hurt those SOS numbers a bit, but don’t let only having two Top 25 wins fool you. Eight Top 40 games is an absurd number and that makes this the resume of any 1-loss team in the country.
On the Bubble:
|
Team |
vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| Mississippi State | 1-1 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 5-0 | 15-40 |
1 |
The Bulldogs have a decent resume but that 81+ number is ugly, though no worse than Baylor’s will be. They have one of the worst nonconference schedules in the country and that shows where they have some SOS numbers outside the Top 30 even though they play in the SEC West. There really is very little that separates this resume from TCU’s, Baylor’s, and Ohio State’s right now. The Bulldogs’ four biggest wins (LSU, Texas A&M, Auburn, and Ole Miss if the Bulldogs win this week) will all probably have at least four losses by the end of the year. There’s no standout win on this resume, which puts them in a very similar boat to TCU.
|
Team |
vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range |
T25 remaining |
| TCU | 0-1 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 25-65 |
0 |
TCU is not as safe as some want you to think. The committee gave them some early-season support, but the fact is that their resume is not much better than Baylor’s (right below) and they lost to Baylor head-to-head. The SOS number took a hit last week and will take another when they play Iowa State. Also, Minnesota probably has another loss coming and might not manage to stay in the Top 25. Add that all up and TCU is squarely on the bubble—and probably needs a Baylor loss to get in.
|
Team |
vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range |
T25 remaining |
| Baylor | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 5-0 | 60-90 |
1 |
That 5-0 number against teams outside the Top 80 is ugly, but no uglier than what Mississippi State has. The SOS number is also ugly (though somehow Massey is a huge outlier with Baylor’s SOS at #37; I can’t explain that) but it again should be close to TCU’s by the end of the year. Both Big XII schools are squarely on the bubble because we can’t know which way the committee will judge them. At the end of the day, though, TCU has played more teams in the Bottom 40 of college football than in the Top 40. That’s not how you make a case for a playoff berth
|
Team |
vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| Ohio State | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 6-1 | 2-0 | 45-55 |
1 |
Ohio State has only one game against a Top 25 team, which cannot help the resume very much. And while they have only played one team outside the Top 80, this schedule is decidedly mediocre with seven games against the middle third of FBS. It’s not a completely false statement to say that Ohio State is relying on the eye test and some forgiveness for that loss, but the fact remains that their SOS is near the same ranges as Baylor, Florida State, and where TCU’s will end up. Getting a 10-2 Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game will also add a slight boost, though not as much as 11-1 Nebraska could have brought.
Still Alive:
|
Team |
vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| UCLA | 0-1 | 2-0 | 2-1 | 4-0 | 1-0 | 1-10 |
0 |
UCLA gets in here because of their three Top 25 games, six Top 40 games, and their strong SOS. It’s as good a 2-loss resume as you’ll see and they will definitely be in the discussion if they win out and beat Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship Game.
|
Team |
vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range |
T25 remaining |
| Arizona State | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4-0 | 1-1 | 3-0 | 30-50 |
1 |
Why do I still have Arizona State on the board? Even though every single team in the Top 25 that they have beaten fell out this week, they now have four wins over teams in that 26-40 range. They’ll need help to get there, but if they can win the Pac 12 and beat Oregon in the championship game to end the season, they will still be right on the edge of that Top 4, depending on how the rest of the country breaks.
|
Team |
vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range |
T25 remaining |
| Arizona | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 4-0 | 3-0 | 25-45 | 1 |
If Arizona can beat their rivals in the Desert then get to play Oregon again in the Pac 12 Championship Game, this resume will be hard to ignore. Two wins over Oregon and potentially six Top 25 games (USC and Utah could both slide back into the Top 25 in the next two weeks) make this a very competitive resume.
|
Team |
vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range |
T25 remaining |
|
Georgia |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2-2 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 10-35 |
1 |
This resume looks okay at first glance, but in reality it’s pretty thin. That Top 10 win is Auburn, who will fall out if they lose to Alabama this week. The Top 25 win is Missouri, who somehow has only lost to Georgia and Indiana yet keeps on winning SEC games. It’s not a bad resume, but not one worthy of the Top 10 ranking that the polls are giving Georgia. If you add wins against Georgia Tech and the SEC Championship Game, though, it looks a lot closer to the rest of those top teams.
Too Early to Eliminate:
Kansas State
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