The 2025 Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass is set to be a thrilling event, with a $4.5 million prize awaiting the winner. Here’s an analysis of the odds, best bets, underdogs, and potential bad bets for this year’s tournament.
Plays at The Players
The Favorites
There’s no surprise the heavy favorite coming into this weekend’s championship is world no.1 Scottie Sheffler. The defending back-to-back champion is +360 to recapture his crown. A bet on Scheffler is a bet on something that hasn’t happened in over a decade. Scheffler is looking to become the first player on the PGA Tour to win the same event 3 times in a row since Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic (2009, 2010, 2011).
Rory McIlroy, the second favorite at +800, is uneasy at Sawgrass. His inconsistency here doesn’t make for a high value pick. Justin Thomas is a strong contender at +2000 due to his past success on this course. Thomas, who won the Players Championship in 2021, shows signs of resurgence with three top-10 finishes this year, including second at The American Express.
Xander Shauffele’s recent return from injury doesn’t inspire much confidence heading into The Players. He finished T-40 after edging past the cut line by a stroke. At +1600 Shauffele may have the least value of the entire field to win it all.
Value Plays
Collin Morikawa has been in great form heading into this week. He saw the Arnold Palmer Invitational ripped out of his hands by Russel Henley on the last hole this past weekend. With two other top-20 finishes in the past month, +1600 to win outright or +350 for a top-5 finish is something to think about.
In maybe the best value play of the tournament, +1200 for Sepp Straka as top European could do some damage in Vegas. Since a poor outing at The Genesis Straka has finished T-11 and T-5. Straka is also a winner on tour taking down The American Express. It won’t be easy with the likes of Mcilroy, Lowry, and Aberg to contend with.
Last week saw Russel Henley conquer the Arnold Palmer Invitational not only as top american (+2800) but also as overall winner. The american who is coming in at the same odds this weekend is Keegan Bradley. Bradley has been Mr. Consistency on tour this year 4 finishes inside the top 15. This includes a T-6 at the Sony Open and a T-5 just last week. Although he’s had some roller coaster performances in recent years, at those odds he is at the very least something to think about.
Longshot Possibilities
As many thought with Shane Lowry last week, many think Hideki Matsuyama (+3000) has a chance at Sawgrass this week. Matsuyama has had strong past performances at Sawgrass and a win already this year. His consistent play and ability to handle challenging courses make him a solid choice.
For those interested in a hail mary, Aaron Rai could be your guy this week. At +10000 and a recent T-4 finish, there could be some legitimacy to throwing some dollars behind Rai. Finishing just outside the top-10 at the Arnold Palmer this may be the moment Rai makes that jump.
Being one of the last tournaments before The Masters tees off, this is a huge chance for many players to earn their invitation to Augusta. Expect to see desperate players making some desperate plays to play for a green jacket. Finding some of those players who are fighting for one of those spots may not be a bad idea.
