Once again, Tom Brady and his balls are in the news. The DeflateGate saga that began during the AFC Championship two seasons ago continues to haunt Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. Since Brady and the Patriots allegedly deflated anywhere from 1 to 11 of the 12 game balls used in the first half of their blowout win in the conference championship game in early 2015, Roger Goodell and the NFL have been aggressively seeking to punish them. After 15 months, Goodell finally got his wish on April 25th when the Second U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals reinstated Brady’s four game suspension.
The Patriots Schedule Without Tom Brady
Before Brady’s suspension was brought back, the New England Patriots had to be considered the favorite for not only the first seed in the playoffs, but also the Lombardi Trophy. While four games without Brady won’t be enough to prevent the Patriots from making the playoffs or even winning the Super Bowl, it could play a huge part in playoff seeding. If the Patriots were to start off 0-4, Brady and company would likely have to win the rest of their games to have the first seed.
Week One – At The Arizona Cardinals
Even with Tom Brady, this was going to be a tough game for the New England Patriots. The Arizona Cardinals were one of the best teams in football last year, having the second best record in the NFL at 13-3 and the NFL’s best offense. Arizona’s only glaring weakness is that they’re not a particularly young team. The team is still leaning on 36-year-old quarterback Carson Palmer and 32-year-old receiver Larry Fitzgerald. As a result, they could struggle with diminishing play or injuries down the line.
Unfortunately for the Patriots, wear and tear won’t be a problem for the Cardinals as they face off in week one. Owner Robert Kraft and head coach Bill Belichick will find out exactly what the future holds for them as third-year quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will make his very first start against one of the best secondaries in football. It’s unlikely that the Patriots pull off this win without Tom Brady, especially in primetime in Arizona.
Week Two – vs. The Miami Dolphins
At first, it’s easy to believe the Patriots will win this game. The Dolphins are chronic underachievers and divisional doormats. Even without Brady, this game should be easy. But then it has to be remembered that the Dolphins actually beat the Patriots with Brady late last season.
Brady was dealing with a nagging leg injury, but the Dolphins didn’t let up. They may have only sacked him twice, but the Dolphins took every shot they could at the four time Super Bowl champion, and they came away with a 20-10 win.
Unlike the Cardinals game, the Dolphins aren’t serious contenders. Ryan Tannehill appears to have reached a ceiling, and it’s hard to consider him a franchise quarterback at this point. They haven’t been able to get over the 8-8 hump, and the playoffs haven’t even been in the conversation. If the New England defense is decent this year, and the Patriots avoid turnovers, this can be a very competitive game. The game will be New England’s home opener and Garoppolo will have seen more action by then.
Week Three – vs. The Houston Texans
The Houston Texans are a mystery. Brock Osweiler is the starting quarterback, Arian Foster is gone, and J.J. Watt is… well, he’s still amazing. Outside of that, nobody is certain how good the Texans will or won’t be this season. The AFC South is a mess. The Colts are the favorites, but nobody knows how quickly Andrew Luck will return to 2014 form. The Titans are one of the worst teams in the league, but they just picked up a trunkload of draft picks. The Jaguars had a good offense last year, but the statistics may have been a product of a horrific run game and a defense that’s even worse.
The Texans defense will be exceptional yet again in 2016. And while it’s unknown how good Brock Osweiler will be, he probably won’t turn the ball over as often as Brian Hoyer did. This is a game that the New England Patriots should be in, but if J.J. Watt has one of his dominant games, he could force the young Garappolo to make some critical mistakes.
Week Four – vs. The Buffalo Bills
This is the easiest of the four Brady-less games for the Patriots. The Bills are in a desperate situation, but they’re also rebuilding. Leodis McKelvin and Mario Williams are both gone, and Buffalo has done nothing to replace them. Now, that’s not saying it will be a cake walk for the Patriots. If the Bills offense can stay healthy, and the quarterback, be it Tyrod Taylor or the rumored draft pick, Christian Hackenberg, avoids mistakes, there’s no reason they can’t win.
The reality is that the last three opponents reveal one harsh truth about the Patriots. With Tom Brady, they’re among the NFL’s elite. They’re Super Bowl contenders. Without him…they aren’t even guaranteed wins over the Bills, Texans, or Dolphins, three teams that aren’t considered serious playoff contenders. Whether that’s an indictment of the Patriots or praise for Brady, that’s up to the reader. But one thing is for sure, the Patriots could start 0-4 and still finish the season with 12 wins and their fifth Lombardi trophy.
