Soccer, like many team sports, is all about making the most of your opportunities to score. Generally speaking, the more you’re able to do so, the better off you’ll be in the league standings. And when it comes to soccer, it’s a given team’s final third finishing that oftentimes makes the difference between winning and losing.
Final Third Finishing Remains a Concern for Columbus Crew SC
It’s that final stroke of quality around goal that has seemed to elude Columbus Crew SC during the first four games of the 2016 MLS season. You could argue that a primary culprit of the club’s first four-game winless start to a season since 2009 is the lack of clinical final third finishing up to this point.
And it’s not like the Black and Gold are worse for wear when it comes to creating chances and getting a high volume of shots at net. Crew SC is currently averaging 14.3 shots per game, which is sixth best in the league. The club also has a total of 48 key passes (passes that lead directly to shots), which is third overall in MLS.
So the problem isn’t quantity by any stretch. It’s quality. And one need look no further than the actual percentage of shots and created chances that have resulted in goals for Crew SC so far. The following two charts illustrate the less than savory situation in that regard.
As you can see, Columbus sits third from bottom in shot conversion percentage and is worst in the league in converting key passes into goals. Compare that with last year’s side that advanced all the way to MLS Cup. During the 2015 regular season, the Black and Gold converted 12.13 percent of their shots into goals and 15.29 percent of their created chances. Those totals were good enough for fifth and ninth in the league respectively.
In many respects, this inability to get goals despite a high volume of shots and key passes resembles the summer swoon of 2014, head coach Gregg Berhalter’s first year in charge. During a six-game span in the regular season from June 4th to July 16th, Crew SC found the net just four times. This was despite creating 64 chances (6.25% conversion percentage) and getting off 89 shots (4.49% conversion percentage). Similar to the current start to the season, the team went winless (0-2-4) during that time.
If we go back to our initial references towards opportunity, Crew SC isn’t doing a good job at making the most of it early in the season. And the club’s 20th and last place position in the Supporters’ Shield standings is due in large part to it. But if there’s any word in this paragraph that carries a lot of weight going forward, it’s “early.” There’s still plenty of time in the season to reverse the current trend.
Now it must be said that part of the problem is the fact Crew SC has been stymied by a few fantastic goalkeeping performances. Philadelphia’s Andre Blake turned in a scintillating six save effort in their 2-1 upset win in week two. And last week, Chris Seitz of FC Dallas denied a few legitimate Columbus scoring chances in the 1-1 draw between the two clubs in Frisco.
But ultimately, the onus is on the Crew SC attack to rediscover the form that made the team one of the most fun to watch in the league over the previous two years. Three goals in four games means the Black and Gold are on pace for slightly under 26 for the entirety of the regular season. That’s not going to cut it if the club wants to defend their Eastern Conference title.
One of the things the team must figure out is how to break opposing teams’ tendency to play compact defensively to counter Crew SC’s possession brand of football. That tactical nuance has made life particularly difficult for Kei Kamara. If you can remain disciplined in marking while choking away the space in the box, you have a chance to neutralize a talented number nine’s ability to do his thing. And that has to be frustrating for the newly minted designated player.
Of particular concern is Kamara being forced to drop back too deep. Take a look at the following two heat maps (courtesy of Whoscored.com). The one on the left is from the FC Dallas game last Saturday. The right graphic is from Columbus’ 2-1 win at Colorado in August of last year when Kamara scored a brace.
Now what the heat map is trying to tell us is where the majority of a given players touches are taking place on the field. Last weekend, it appeared that Kamara was getting the ball in areas not conducive to his ability to score goals. Against Colorado, a majority of those touches were clearly in zone 17 where he’s most dangerous.
Last season proved that when Kamara’s on his game, Crew SC is immensely tough to beat. But part of his effectiveness is contingent on the three attacking midfielders behind them playing their part. The quality wing play provided by Ethan Finlay in 2015 was a major factor in the club’s success. A season later, it has yet to materialize.
That said, Federico Higuaín has been superb in his role as the playmaking number ten. He has certainly been a bright spot among an attack that hasn’t had many four games in. His tireless work in the middle of the park combined with his dynamic distribution ability has been impressive thus far. It’s a scary thought to infer that 2016 could be setting up to be his best in a Crew SC uniform.
At the end of the day, though, it comes down to opportunities at net and making the most of them. That has not been the case for Crew SC over the first month or so of the season. Our first chance to see if the team can realize a reversal of fortune with final third finishing is Saturday afternoon in Montreal. If things can begin to change, the club’s poor positioning in the MLS table will quickly be a thing of the past. If not, then it will continue to be a struggle to get satisfactory results.
But with the talent on this roster, it’s hard to believe that anything other than improvement from the current form is in the cards.
Photo courtesy of Columbus Crew SC Communications.
