In part one, I examined some of the potential Toronto Raptors playoffs match-ups, including the Detroit Pistons, Chicago Bulls, and Charlotte Hornets. But with the Eastern Conference playoff race being so close this year, there are several scenarios in which the Raptors don’t face any of those three teams. The most likely playoff opponents for Toronto, besides the ones already mentioned, would be the Atlanta Hawks and Indiana Pacers. Although the Hawks are just half a game back of Charlotte for fifth place in the East (going into the games of March 12th), they’re just a game and a half ahead of the Pacers, who sit in seventh and would play Toronto if the playoffs started today. Let’s take a look at how each of these two teams would match up with the Raptors if they were to meet in a playoff series.
Potential Toronto Raptors Playoffs Match-ups (Part Two)
Indiana Pacers
Season Series: Currently tied 1-1
Indiana’s new small ball attack, featuring C.J. Miles and Paul George as the two forwards, gave the Raptors major issues in the last contest between these two teams. The Pacers quickly came back from down 21 points in the first quarter to beat Toronto by 16 in a December game. Miles has lit up the Raptors from downtown in past meetings, while Toronto simply has no one to throw at Paul George when he plays the four in small lineups. There’s one obvious solution to this problem for Toronto: DeMarre Carroll. As I mentioned with regards to Jimmy Butler and the Bulls, the Raptors will need Carroll at close to full strength in order to have any chance at guarding their opponent’s wing star. If Carroll is back and healthy for the playoffs, he will change the entire dynamic of a Toronto-Indiana series. If the Pacers continue to start both Ian Mahinmi and Myles Turner, Carroll can stick to guarding George on the wing, playing with the Raptors’ regular starting lineup. But if Indiana chooses to close games with those deadly small ball lineups, Carroll can move to the four and match up with George, as he often did in crunch time early in the season. This would also allow the Raptors to unlock their most creative offensive lineup, featuring both Kyle Lowry and Cory Joseph as playmakers in the backcourt, along with DeMar DeRozan and Jonas Valanciunas as frontcourt scoring threats. Carroll will be a crucial x-factor in determining the winner of a series between these two teams, if they meet in the first round.
One more variable looms in this potential match-up: Turner, Indiana’s rookie big man. At his best, Turner can play both the four and the five, space the floor as both a three point threat and inside finisher on offense, and still protect the rim on defense. But rookies, especially big men, often struggle in their first playoff appearances. If the Raptors, who average the third most free throw attempts per game in the league, bait Turner into early foul trouble, Turner could become a non-factor for the Pacers. If the rookie struggles, this match-up could lean even further in Toronto’s favor. But if not, and Turner thrives, he could help Indiana take control of a series between these two teams.
Atlanta Hawks
Season Series: Toronto leads 2-0
At first glance, this looks like an awful match-up for the Raptors. Al Horford has dominated Valanciunas in regular season games and Paul Millsap can take of advantage of anyone the Raptors have at power forward. Jeff Teague can almost neutralize Lowry, and Kent Bazemore makes DeRozan work for every basket. Furthermore, the Hawks won 60 games last year before Carroll left to join these Raptors, and Atlanta had been in the top five of the East for most of this season until Charlotte’s recent hot streak. If the Hawks were to fall another spot in the standings, it would seem to be a terrible situation for Toronto.
But if the Hawks and Raptors were to face off in a playoff series, the winner may be determined by a simple question: which team will play at a complete game, thriving on both offense and defense? Of course, that applies to every team, in every playoff series, ever. But for these two specifically, each needs to pick it up on one particular end of the floor. Since the All-Star break, the Raptors have been the best offensive team in the NBA, in terms of points per 100 possessions, but they’ve been a bottom six defensive team, by opponent points per 100 possessions. Atlanta has had the exact opposite problem. By the same measure, the Hawks have been the best defensive team, but the third worst offensive team in the league since the All-Star break. A potential series between these teams will come down to whether or not Atlanta’s elite defense contains Toronto’s elite offense. It will also depend on whether the Raptors buckle down on defense more than the Hawks find ways to get easy points on offense, and vice versa. Something has to give. So which will it be?
To me, the Raptors will figure things out on the defensive end. They still have the thirteenth best defense over the course of the season, and their defense was in the top ten before the All-Star break. After adding Joseph, Bismack Biyombo, and most importantly, Carroll, the Raptors now have several more good defenders than they did last season, when their weak defense broke down in the playoffs. Once again, Carroll returning at close to full health could be a huge factor in Toronto’s first round match-up. If he does so, and the Raptors get back to playing their solid early season defense, this potential match-up may turn out to be no contest. If not, these two teams would be in for a tough battle.
