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UFC 196: Ilir Latifi, Gian Villante Look for KO

Ilir Latifi is best known for stepping in on short notice to replace an injured Alexander Gustafsson when the UFC returned to Sweden on April 6, 2013. The original main event was scheduled for a bout at light heavyweight between the Swedish superstar Gustafsson, and the dangerous Pride veteran and KO artist Gegard Mousasi. We learned a lot about Latifi  that night: the Swedish immigrant from Albania took on an extremely experienced veteran in Mousasi with little-to-no preparation, and despite his inability to mount much offense, he demonstrated an iron chin and incredible tenacity to stay in the fight.

The stocky Swede goes by “The Sledgehammer,” which is an apt name for the MMA juggernaut, who has a background in wrestling but loves to throw humongous bombs with his fists. Although he was unable to land anything significant against Mousasi, he went on to win a number of fights in the UFC in very impressive fashion.

Latifi returned to face Cyrille Diabaté, submitting the rangy kickboxer with a ninja choke. Four month later in July 2014, he knocked out Chris Dempsey with a combination of strikes so powerful that each time he touched Dempsey he sent him flying around the octagon. The right low kick knocked Dempsey back about three feet, collapsed his lead leg, and dropped him on the canvas. He followed up right a right hand that drilled Dempsey on the chin and sent him careening into the cage before landing two more punches that crumpled into an unconscious heap. We knew from that sequence of strikes that Latifi has mammoth power and can put any man away with a single blow.

After suffering a defeat to Jan Blachowicz from a vicious body kick, Latifi proceded to KO Hans Stringer and Sean O’Connell in similar fashion to the Dempsey win, landing once again with colossal power.

He now faces Gian Villante, a long-time training partner and friend of former middleweight champion Chris Weidman. A product of the Matt Serra-Ray Longo fight camp in Long Island, NY, Villante has mostly been a gatekeeper at 205 lbs, mostly alternating wins and losses. He tends to get a little overaggressive in his fights, particularly after he hurts his opponent. This makes him exciting to watch, like when he TKO’d Corey Anderson deep in the third round in a fight many thought was going to the judges. It also makes him vulnerable, like when Tom Lawlor flatlined him with a big punch.

Villante is coming off a spectacular KO win over the aging veteran Anthony Perosh, effectively retiring the Jiu Jitsu master. One of the best grapplers to emerge from Australia, Perosh had learned to box very late in his career and simply lacked the youth and athleticism to put it all to use. Everyone knows Villante is a dangerous fighter with KO power who is very good overall but lacks the dynamism and creativity to keep his opponents guessing or instill fear. He tends to plod forward, using largely orthodox striking technique and using his wrestling mostly in reverse, only attempting takedowns when he’s hurt or frustrated standing up.

The keys to victory for this fight are fairly straight forward. Villante has much more experience against top competition than does Latifi, and comes from one of the top MMA camps in the world at Serra-Longo. Latifi is the better athlete, with more explosive power and superior speed and agility. He’s shown remarkable improvement in every fight, and has become one of the more exciting prospects from Europe in recent years, behind Gunnar Nelson and “The Notorious” Conor McGregor. He knows when to take risks and has the fight-finishing ability that fans adore.

Who Will Emerge Victorious

Despite coming from a world-class camp, Villante still makes tactical errors in his fights, some of which have cost him dearly. When he’s hurt, or thinks his opponent is hurt, he will eschew technique for wild exchanges. While Latifi also takes risks during stand-up exchanges, I believe his chin will hold up better than Villante’s, and I see Latifi’s speed and aggression giving him the edge in this fight. If the Swedish slugger doesn’t flatten Villante early in the fight, he will likely earn a UD victory, hurting Villante in the 1st and either finishing him or riding out a clear-cut win on the scorecards.

Ilir Latifi, TKO in Round 2

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