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How good are Agnieszka Radwanska's Australian Open chances?

If you ever find yourself aimlessly wading through online tennis articles you will almost inevitably stumble across some sort of article called “the best players never to win a Grand Slam”. Among a whole host of retired legends such as Pam Shriver, David Nalbandian and Tim Henman you will find some active players. David Ferrer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Jelena Jankovic are common names but one name starting to creep into these lists is Agnieszka Radwanska.

This may sound surprising when you consider that Radwanska is only 26 but many pundits have written off her chances of ever claiming a Grand Slam already. Her creative style of play is effective against many but the general consensus is that she can’t sustain it across two weeks and seven separate opponents and eventually someone will power through her game.

There is unquestionably an element of truth to this school of thought but a combination of factors has meant that the Pole has a genuine chance at the upcoming Australian Open.

Aga in form

Let’s not take anything away from Radwanska, she is in scintillating form. At the US Open back in September she was seeded 15th but since then she has been virtually unbeatable. Of the 26 matches she has played she has lost just four matches, winning three titles including the end of year Tour Finals on the way.

Most importantly, ‘the Ninja’ defeated eight of the current top twenty during the back end of last year, demonstrating that these titles are not flukes against lower ranked opposition. Her opposition last week in Shenzhen may not have been to the best standard but the fact that she won the title without dropping a set is an encouraging sign that her form has continued into the New Year.

A major bonus of her Shenzhen victory is her movement back up to #4 in the rankings. This meant that during the Australian Open draw she was able to avoid the three players above her, Simona Halep, Garbine Muguruza and, most importantly, Serena Williams, until at least the semi-finals.

Busy Treatment Room

Of course Radwanska has headed into tournaments before on form and come away empty handed. So what is different this time?

It’s fair to say that she may have a helping hand from her peers who are lining up to get into the treatment room. In a bizarre start to the WTA calendar, most of the top ten either retired or withdrew from their respective tournaments.

Halep and Sharapova both withdrew from Brisbane before it even started with Muguruza retiring during her opening match. Over in Auckland Ana Ivanovic also withdrew from the doubles after getting knocked out in the singles, whilst Petra Kvitova also retired during her first round match. Whilst they are all still currently heading to Melbourne, Lucie Safarova has announced her withdrawal from the US Open.

The biggest of the lot though for Radwanska is Serena Williams retirement and later withdrawal from the Hopman Cup. Whilst Radwanska has beaten all the others in the past she is yet to post a victory against the world number one and will be quietly pleased to hear of a potential problem.

That is not to say of course that we should read too much into some of these withdrawals. At the end of the day, all of the players have had a full week to recover and a lot of the withdrawals would have been precautionary rather than for really serious injuries. Radwanska herself withdrew from this week’s Apia International in Sydney, officially citing a ‘lower left leg’ injury. In reality though it would appear there is more or less no injury and it is simply for recuperation.

She said: “I’m really sorry that I can’t play Sydney this week. I am feeling very confident in my game at the moment and the results are there, but after five matches in the past week my leg needs some recovery time.”

The Aussie Open Draw and avoiding Azarenka

As much as Agnieszka Radwanska is heading to Melbourne in blistering form, she is not the only one. Former number one Victoria Azarenka tore apart the Brisbane field to claim her first title since 2013 and really announce herself as an Australian Open contender.

The Belarusian has a history of causing problems for Radwanska, beating her six times in 2012 alone for the loss of just two sets, with her powerful game playing straight through Radwanska’s more delicate style. Luckily though, Aga has managed to land herself in the opposite side of the draw to Azarenka.

In fact, Radwanska has been gifted a relatively kind draw. A first round tie against Christina McHale should prove little problem although a potential banana-skin waits for her in the second round in the form of Eugenie Bouchard. If she can navigate her way through that she will fear no one else in her quarter and will fancy her chances against a not-fully-fit Petra Kvitova in a possible quarter-final encounter.

So can Agnieszka Radwanska win her first Grand Slam? In short, yes. The only player she will fear is Serena Williams and Serena has a brutal quarter to battle through which includes Sharapova, Bencic and Wozniacki. Radwanska has the confidence, she has the form and she has the draw. Unless she wants to end up on one of those dreaded lists for the rest of her life, she needs to get that maiden Grand Slam and this is her biggest chance yet.

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