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2015 ATP Shanghai Masters Preview

The ATP Shanghai Masters is almost upon us, with the main draw commencing on Sunday the 11th of October. We look at the four top seeds’ draws, the dangerous outsiders at this year’s event, and the matches to keep your eyes peeled for over the coming days.

Novak Djokovic

Possible Route to the Title: Round 1 – Bye, Round 2 – Martin Klizan, Round 3 – Feliciano Lopez (15), Quarter Finals – David Ferrer (7), Semi Finals – Andy Murray (3), Final – Roger Federer (2).

The beauty of the Shanghai ATP Masters Event is that every match is competitive. The compact 64 draw makes for a greater quality across the tournament and with the top eight seeds receiving a bye in the first round; there is a greater demand on the elite to find their form quickly. And Novak Djokovic’s potential route to the final indicates no differently.  Yet, out of the top four – all of whom, it is worth noting, have secured their spots in London for the ATP World Tour Finals – he has arguably the easiest route. Feliciano Lopez tested the World No.1 in Flushing Meadows, taking him to four sets, but the Spaniard is on the wrong end of a 6-0 head to head against Djokovic. Ferrer has recently suffered defeat at the hands of Djokovic in the China Open, so he will likely go into this potential meeting with the psychological upper hand. I write this before Djokovic goes into the China Open final versus Rafael Nadal, but perhaps that is irrelevant. If the Serb wins, he will enter Shanghai with a profound confidence… yet if he loses then he will merely be even more motivated to make amends. In any case, a galvanising factor will be the fact that Djokovic won four of the first five Masters Events of this year, but has fallen at the final hurdle in the last two (Montreal and Cincinnati). Shanghai will give him the opportunity to reassert his utterly imperious dominance on the Masters Tour.

Tournament Prediction: Champion

Roger Federer

Possible Route to the Title: R1 – Bye, R2 – Sam Querrey, R3 – Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (16), QF – Kei Nishikori (6), SF – Stanislas Wawrinka (4), F – Novak Djokovic (1).

Federer, alongside Murray, goes into Shanghai without having played a match on the post-US Open Asia Circuit. The way he was timing the ball during Flushing Meadows though, suggests that he probably doesn’t need it. The Swiss may benefit from an out of sorts Nishikori, who has suffered from injury this year and has been defeated by Benoit Paire again – this time in the semi-finals of the ATP 500 in Tokyo. Federer won the last Masters Event, but has had mixed fortunes on the elite circuit, exiting early in Madrid and Monte Carlo whilst losing in the finals of Rome and Indian Wells to Djokovic. I imagine that Shanghai will be a repeat of the latter two – but hopefully with a few more SABR’s please Roger…

Tournament Prediction: Runner-up

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nmwo1Q-gvhI

Andy Murray

Possible Route to the Title: R1 – Bye, R2 – Andreas Seppi, R3 – John Isner, QF – Tomas Berdych, SF – Novak Djokovic, F – Roger Federer.

Andy Murray will inevitably take heart from the fact that he boasts two Masters Titles to his name this year; plus he has taken the Shanghai title twice before. However Murray has played the most matches of Shanghai’s top four this year (see below), and at this stage in the season that statistic may start to become evident in his performances. He enjoys an extremely one sided record against Seppi, but I think that Isner’s aggression may thoroughly test his fitness. Berdych will likewise; if he doesn’t finish Murray off (which I think he likely will if the Czech reaches that stage) then the unrelenting Djokovic certainly will. Shanghai is to test test Murray’s fitness, and gauge how much his Davis Cup exploits have impacted it.

Tournament Prediction: Quarter Finals

 The Top Four’s Win/Loss Record 2015:

Djokovic – 63/5 (92.65 win %)

Federer – 53/8 (86.89%)

Murray – 61/10 (85.92%)

Wawrinka – 43/13 (76.79%)

Stanislas Wawrinka

Possible Route to the Title: R1 – Bye, R2 – Viktor Troicki, R3 – Marin Cilic, QF – Rafael Nadal, SF – Roger Federer, F – Novak Djokovic

Wawrinka has arguably had the toughest draw bestowed upon him. Whatever happens in the Beijing Final, Nadal will have had a solid tournament and so will be particularly dangerous. Perhaps what is more ominous for the Swiss though is the depth of his quarter. There lie many dangerous floaters including Croatians Borna Coric and Ivo Karlovic, as well as ninth seeded Milos Raonic. Wawrinka also has a poor record Shanghai – with the quarter finals being the best he has done here. Yet on Sunday he will have the opportunity to scoop up his 11th title, in Tokyo when he faces Benoit Paire. The term ‘confidence player’ is applicable to all sprotspeople really, but with Wawrinka it is highly so, playing a high risk style that demands self-assurance to be successful. His result in Tokyo then, will be significant to his success in Shanghai.

Tournament Prediction: Quarter Finals

The Dangerous Outsiders

Benoit Paire – having backed up his first career title with a strong US Open run, and then backed that up with a run to the final of the Tokyo ATP 500, there is the feeling that Paire is not just having one of his standard hot streaks. He will be a threat, and faces David Goffin in Round 1, who he enjoys a 2-0 head to head over.

Bernard Tomic – the Australian is currently equal with his career-high ranking of 20. Hard is also his best surface, suiting his nonchalant style. He has a tricky first round opponent in Fernando Verdasco, but has the weapons to blow Ferrer off the court if he reaches Round 2.

Gilles Muller – The 32 year old is enjoying his career best year and served imperiously to dispatch Gilles Simon in Tokyo. Could he replicate that against another Frenchman, Richard Gasquet?

Round 1 Matches to Watch

Alexandr Dolgopolov vs. Borna Coric – the Ukranian’s unorthodox style will test the youngster’s temperament.

David Goffin vs. Benoit Paire – two brilliant baseliners, and both are enjoying a highly successful year.

Adrian Mannarino vs. John Isner (13) – the talented Frenchman may be able to upset the big-serving American.

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