The race for the National League Central title this season has been a tale fit only for the record books. The St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Chicago Cubs all finished the season with over 95 wins (100, 98 and 97 respectively). As if that wasn’t magical enough, home field advantage for the wild card game came down to the very last game of the season.
A story this epic deserves a classic ending, and what better way to cap off an unprecedented season than by having an old-western style shoot out in the NL Wild Card game to decide who advances to face the Cards in the NLDS. In one corner, you have the often under-looked Gerrit Cole (19-6, 2.60 ERA, and a respectable 1.09 WHIP); in the other sits the highly-touted Jake Arrieta (22-6, 1.77 ERA, and a scary 0.86 WHIP). Let’s take a look at what this means for each team’s chances in this one-game playoff.
Gerrit Cole would easily be in the Cy Young discussion if he didn’t share a league with Arrieta, Zack Greinke, and Clayton Kershaw. He has been the Buccos’ go-to guy when they’ve needed a big win all season. Over the last couple of weeks, he has shut down the Cards, Cubs, and the Los Angeles Dodgers (STL and CHI twice).
If there must be one complaint about Cole, it would have to be that he seems to give up a lot of hits scattered throughout a game. A shining 2.60 ERA for the 2015 season would normally indicate his ability to work himself out of jams relatively unscathed, but you have to wonder how he will fair against a young, hungry Cubs team that will be looking for redemption against a pitcher that has had their number pretty much all season. Cole has the ability to rack up punch-outs, but is inconsistent in doing so from start to start. One thing working in his advantage is that this is a Cubs team that likes to swing pretty freely.
What can be said about Jake Arrieta that hasn’t been said already? He’s been historically great since the All-Star break (0.75, the lowest ERA after the break ALL TIME) with 18 straight quality starts and is easily the hottest pitcher on the planet right now. It’s really hard to nit-pick a weak part to his game right now. The man has gotten progressively better since he started pitching for Chicago last year and it looks like he’s got the confidence to match it. Arrieta has become a quiet leader of a young Cubs squad and you can see his confidence mirrored in his teammates every time he takes the mound.
The stage has been set and this game should prove to be an all-time classic. These are two gunslingers about to have an old fashioned shootout at the O.K. Corral. It’s easy to look at the numbers and give the edge to Pittsburgh; they’ve been here before and have more experience on their roster. But the Cubs own the x-factor in Arrieta. Most people would be concerned that he might break under the pressure, but if the workload that’s been bestowed upon him has been too much, he hasn’t let on at all. In fact, he looks and sounds more confident than ever. A heckler on Twitter yesterday warned Arrieta that Pittsburgh would be a sea of black and that they would eat him alive. Arrieta responded, “Whatever helps keep your hope alive, just know, it doesn’t matter.” With that short phrase Arrieta has shown not only the Pirates he’s ready for them, but has shown baseball that he’s ready to add to the legend that is his 2015 season.
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