Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

Andrew Luck vs Russell Wilson

Quarterback debates are everywhere in today’s age, and no debate has been more prominent or discussed than the Peyton ManningTom Brady debate. Whether you prefer Manning or Brady, there’s no denying both are the 2 greatest quarterbacks the 21st century has seen thus far, offering a multitude of elite seasons.

While Manning was racking up MVP/All-Pro awards, Brady was racking up postseason success. Whenever the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts faced each other when Brady and Manning were under center, it was automatically must see TV. While the Patriots dominated early, the Colts came up with a dominate streak of their own in the middle of the 2000s. It’s arguably the greatest 2-player rivalry in NFL history.

Just like players passing the torch to the next leader when their time has ended, the same has started to happen with Manning/Brady. I’m of course talking about Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson.

Drafted in 2012 by the Colts, Andrew Luck became the successor to Peyton Manning down in Indianapolis. To the surprise of many, Luck single handedly carried a team that went 2-14 the previous year to an 11-5 season and the playoffs. His play in the clutch (seven game winning drives) became unheard of for a rookie, and since then he’s lived up to the height and then some, coming off a career year in 2014.

Also coming out of the 2012 draft is Russell Wilson, from the third-round. While not on the Patriots, Wilson seems like a spiritual successor to Brady, being a rival to Luck, who replaced Manning. The drafting of Wilson surprised many analysts, and an even bigger shock came when he not only won the starting  quarterback job, but also provided one of the greatest and most productive rookie seasons ever from a quarterback. He followed up with an MVP caliber season in 2013, contributing to the Seattle Seahawks’ first Super Bowl victory, and the city of Seattle’s first championship since 1979.

The quarterback class of 2012 was originally hailed as one of the greatest in NFL Draft history, but it’s since boiled down to Luck and Wilson, with Ryan Tannehill gaining momentum based on his 2014 season. With Colts and Seahawks fans (not to mention high media figures) arguing over which quarterback is better, it’s become a second rate version of Manning VS. Brady.

So which quarterback is truly better? This is where someone who isn’t a Colts or Seahawks fan comes in. I won’t sugarcoat anything; Luck and Wilson are two of my favorite active quarterbacks, thanks to their unique playing styles, which involve a heavy use of mobility and deep ball throwing. I hope to enjoy more out of both of these signal callers for years to come.

To emphasize who I think is the better quarterback, I’ll make a fair case for both Luck and Wilson, using stats, athleticism, arm strength, postseason play, ability in the clutch, and overall value, amongst other factors. So without further delay, let’s start the debate.

ANDREW LUCK VS. RUSSELL WILSON

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If my goal were to hastily make a debate, and then solely base it on stats, I would’ve had this article up the day I thought of it. That won’t happen with me (or this article); I’m more interested in diving deeper from what I’ve seen watching film of both QBs, studying their mechanics, decision making, etc.

Having said that, here’s a chart of Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson when using raw stats.

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As you can see, Luck dominates the volume stats, such as completions, attempts, yards, touchdowns, interceptions, and yards per game. On the other hand, Wilson dominates the more efficient stats, such as completion percentage, passer rating, touchdown percentage, yards per attempt, passer rating, and interception percentage.

Despite the fact that Luck has thrown more interceptions, his INT% isn’t too far off from Wilson’s, and it’s likely due to his volume. I’m not high on the passer rating statistic, but Wilson’s would be second all time with enough attempts (needs 1,500 to qualify across all major statistic sites).

Wilson wins the raw statistics challenge, though there’s more to that than the casual audience believes.

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Both quarterbacks possess a commonly found passion of throwing the ball deep. From 2014’s Deep Ball Project, I graded Andrew Luck as an A-, and Russell Wilson a B+.

Both signal callers have cannons for arms, and both can showcase their arm strength on big plays, but Luck’s just has a little more zip in it, so he wins this round.

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This isn’t a contest. Both quarterbacks are very mobile and capable of buying time in the pocket to make big plays happen, but Russell Wilson may be the most mobile QB I’ve ever seen. While Luck can scramble effectively, Wilson’s style just seems more authentic, and he is able to avoid multiple defenders and extend the play to times beyond what most quarterbacks can. He also uses his mobility to find open receivers, as seen in several games.

Wilson’s legs win this one.

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 While the mobility debate was the opposite of a challenge, both Luck and Wilson have possessed an uncanny ability to be successful in the clutch in their first three seasons. See the below chart.

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So who wins? Both have been spectacular playmakers in this situation, and I wrote about all of Wilson’s game winning drives here. From 2012-13, Luck was probably the winner, but Wilson’s consistency through his first three seasons (five game winning drives in 2012/2013/2014, as well as the record for most GWD in a quarterback’s first three seasons) gives him the edge.

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Neither Luck nor Wilson win this section, because I’m simply listing the unique records that both quarterbacks own.

First, Andrew Luck.

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Next, Russell Wilson.

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Now, it’s on to a section I’ve heavily researched in comparison to everything else in this article.

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You’d probably think this is easily in Wilson’s favor, but research says there are a few factors that make Wilson’s numbers look significantly more efficient than Luck’s. While Wilson wins the turnover battle (Luck has 9 TD and 12 INT, while Russ has 12 TD and 6 INT), the key is looking beyond TD-INT ratio. After all, Luck has not been blessed with the Legion of Boom defenses like Wilson has.

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Luck’s already had 29 games in which his defense has given up more than 20 points. In comparison, Wilson has only 14 such games. Both Luck and Wilson have seen their defenses (more on that shortly) give up more points per game, but Luck’s has given up nearly 30 a game. Wilson’s? A measly 18.9. If you’re wondering where that ranks among active QBs, see the chart below.

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Godspeed to Matt Ryan.

Wilson’s defenses have given up the second fewest amount of points per game of any quarterback on this chart (minimum of four postseason games) at 18.9. Luck’s? the second most at 29.8.

You’re still probably thinking: “Didn’t Luck’s constant turnovers force so much pressure on the defense?” Quite the opposite. See the chart below.

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As you can see from the chart above, 66.7% of Luck’s picks came when he was already trailing by 14 or more points. The numbers are 33.3% for Wilson. Naturally, these turnovers came on riskier plays where the Colts were forced to gamble when they were already down big, yet for some reason the narrative has people thinking Luck’s turnovers put them in those holes to begin with. Coincidentally, when Wilson trailed by 14 against the Packers in the 2014 NFC Championship Game, he threw two picks himself before leading an excellent comeback later in the game. No one is safe.

I couldn’t care less about picks in this situation, and that is because play calling forces teams trailing big to aim for riskier plays, which, obviously, lead to certain death in most cases. Would Wilson’s efficiency be the same if he had Luck’s defense? Unlikely. Then again, four of his six playoff interceptions came in one game (Packers 2014), so his numbers would look way better without that blemish.

Now that I’ve cleared up the TD-INT ratio, what about the actual play? It’s a lot closer between Wilson and Luck than what’s seen on the raw stat sheet. Wilson has a higher passer rating (RW=97.8, AL=70.8), but when using ESPN’s QBR, Wilson has a 58.4 average, while Luck has a 54.4 average. Pretty close.

Despite having two more games (eight to six), Wilson has only attempted 202 passes compared to Luck’s 260. Still, Wilson has a higher Y/A (9.01 to 7.03), and a higher CMP%. In general, the numbers for Wilson pretty much look more efficient than Luck’s this time of the year.

Overall, Wilson gets the edge, but just barely if you ask me.

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Do I need to dedicate a couple of paragraphs to this section? Not really, especially since I already gave away most of my reasoning in the “postseason” section. Wilson’s defense is far superior to Luck’s. Wilson wins this debate. Or is it Luck? Hmmm…..let’s move on.

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There’s really nothing positive to say about both units, as they are among the worst in the league. Luck’s been constantly getting hit due to the lack of pass protection, while Wilson’s been forced to scramble on every play it seems. Both quarterbacks make their offensive lines look way better than they actually are in this case, due to their unique playing styles and talent.

No one wins this one. Because why bother?

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Andrew Luck had Trent Richardson from 2013-2014. Russell Wilson has Marshawn Lynch who, in my opinion, is the number one running back in the league. No contest there.

However, Wilson himself adds another dimension to Seattle’s run game. While his passing play declined last year in comparison to 2012 and 2013, his running ability soared. Wilson’s unique mobility allows him to evade multiple defenders a la every good mobile QB currently in the league, but what puts Wilson over the edge is his ability to create yards out of nothing on improvisational stunts.

Winner winner chicken dinner for Wilson, but his impact on the run game increases the margin significantly.

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This is a debate that usually ends up one sided, but outside of wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, there’s little consistency amongst Luck’s receiving core. Early in his career, Wilson had solid deep options in Sidney Rice and Golden Tate, and the underrated Doug Baldwin remains a nice backup. On the other hand, Luck got to play with Reggie Wayne for a bit, and now gets guys such as Andre Johnson and Phillip Dorsett, while Wilson gets Jimmy Graham.

I’m sure Wilson would love to play with a guy like Hilton, though, especially coming off a season like last year. Closer than people would imagine, but Luck wins this battle.

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As top 10 quarterbacks, it’s obvious Wilson and Luck are the keys for both teams making the playoffs every year. Both make the players around them better, excel in the clutch, and without them, wouldn’t be close to being competitive, let alone in the playoffs.

However, I have to side with Luck. His value covers up more holes in his team than Wilson’s does with his. Both quarterbacks have inconsistent casts on offense, but Wilson has the better run game (which he also impacts), defense, and coaching, The Colts have a flawed run game, inconsistent receivers (much like the Seahawks), bad defense, and poor coaching. Yet, Luck’s stellar play under this scenario has allowed him to near single handedly carry the Colts into the playoffs each and every year.

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If you ask me, I can’t go wrong with either, but I’d rather have Luck if I’m selecting a quarterback to build around, based on the information and research given above.

Regardless of which side you choose, or how you process the information I’ve provided, my goal with this article was to give a fair case for both quarterbacks, while at the same time giving my opinion on who’s better.

Main Photo via Getty Images Sport

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