The long wait is almost over. Football is fast approaching. And the last few obstacles between us and the 2015 season are within sight. One of those obstacles is the preseason polls and multitude of predictions. Not wanting to let anyone down, I thought I’d take a look at each team, their schedule and posit my predictions on how the SEC will look four months from now at the conclusion of the regular season.
Last Word on Sports 2015 SEC Preview
Here’s what the numbers mean. The first number is my predicted regular season finish for each team. I looked at each team’s schedule, determined the games I thought were “should be wins”, “should be losses” and “toss ups”. That generated the first number in the parenthesis (W-L/TU). I then added half the toss ups to the Wins, half to the Losses and determined the “expected average” for that team.
So, for Alabama for instance, I think they have eight “should be wins”, no “should be losses” and four “toss-ups”. So their “expected average” record would be 10-2. After looking at their schedule and other components, I finally decided that I like them coming in at 11-1. A win or loss in the Toss Up section is what I think will happen with that particular toss up game.
The important thing to note is that however above or below the “expected average” record (Alabama was one game above, for instance), is really my statement on how well or poorly above a team’s potential I think they will play.
So, let’s have a look at how I think they’ll wind up.
SEC West:
1. Alabama 11-1 (8-0/4; 10-2):
W: Wisconsin, MTSU, ULM, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi State, Charleston Southern
L: None
Toss Ups: Mississippi(W), Georgia(W), Texas A&M(L), Auburn(W)
Summary: There are more question marks about this Alabama team than in the previous years. First among these questions is the quarterback position, which is still yet to be decided. Alabama also loses their top three receivers and three of their top four tacklers, including five interceptions, on the defensive side of the ball. And with this many questions, how does Alabama come out on top of such a competitive division? That’s where Nick Saban comes in. Saban seems to always turn in his best coaching performances when it’s needed most. He reveled in turning around the programs at Michigan State and LSU. At Alabama, his teams have always won big when expected to be second and have disappointed when expected to win big. With Lane Kiffin in charge of a talented group of players on offense and Kirby Smart leading the always formidable defense, look for Nick Saban to not only survive the toughest division of football, but bounce back from a disappointing performance in the 2014 College Football Playoffs.
2. Texas A&M, 10-2 (6-0/6; 9-3):
W: Ball State, Nevada, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Western Carolina, Vanderbilt
L: None
Toss Ups: Arizona State(W), Arkansas(W), Alabama(W), Mississippi(L), Auburn(L), LSU(W)
Summary: Texas A&M is my pick for the surprise team out of the West. With so many questions around the league at quarterback, Kevin Sumlin has talented sophomore Kyle Allen coming back. Allen gets six of the top seven receivers back from last season in what is probably the deepest receiving corps in the league. But offense is usually not the problem at A&M. Sumlin’s biggest recruit this offseason was stealing Defensive Coordinator John Chavis from LSU. Chavis has one of the most decorated careers in the SEC with DC stints at Tennessee and LSU. Look for the A&M defense to bend but not break throughout the season and enable the talented defense to win more games than most would expect. Look for Texas A&M to surprise Alabama at home but struggle against Ole Miss’ defense and Auburn’s offense.
3. Auburn, 10-2 (7-0/5; 9.5-2.5):
W: Louisville, Jacksonville St., LSU, Mississippi St., San Jose St., Kentucky, Idaho
L: None
Toss Ups: Arkansas(L), Mississippi(W), Texas A&M(W), Georgia(W), Alabama(L)
Summary: Auburn is the popular pick to win the SEC West this year, and after bringing in Will Muschamp to shore up a weak defense, it’s easy to see why. But the fact remains that Jeremy Johnson is unproven over the course of a season running the Malzahn offense. And Auburn loses their top three rushers from last season. I think Auburn stumbles at Arkansas as the timing and execution Auburn offense and new defense matches up poorly against an aggressive and very physical Arkansas team that will be hungry for a program-defining win. The Iron Bowl will be an absolute toss up between 10-1 teams but I don’t think Auburn will be able to make it that far without significant wear and tear to their high-powered offense.
4. Mississippi, 9-3 (8-1/3; 9.5-2.5):
W: UT-Martin, Fresno St., Vanderbilt, Florida, New Mexico St., Memphis, LSU, Mississippi St.
L: Alabama
Toss Ups: Texas A&M(W), Auburn(L), Arkansas(L)
Summary: Ole Miss has the easiest schedule in the SEC West, by far. Like many other teams in the SEC, they face questions at quarterback. If Chad Kelly can provide the lift that the Rebels need, they should have a chance at nine wins. They should have another dominate defense returning seven starters including All-American candidate Robert Nkemdiche. I think Ole Miss’ defense allows them to beat a timing team in Texas A&M and suffocate what I think will be a struggling LSU offense. But I don’t think Ole Miss has the staying power to beat Alabama, Auburn or Arkansas. Auburn and Arkansas come in back-to-back weeks immediately after the Texas A&M game in the hardest stretch of the season for Ole Miss.
5. Arkansas, 8-4 (6-0/6; 9-3):
W: UTEP, Toledo, Texas Tech, UT Martin, Mississippi St., Missouri
L: None
Toss Ups: Texas A&M(L), Tennessee(L), Alabama(L), Auburn(W), Mississippi(W), LSU(L)
Summary: Along with Tennessee, Arkansas is viewed as the up-and-coming SEC program. Arkansas has the ability to beat any team in the conference. They return two 1,000-yard rushers, an experienced senior quarterback, and a great offense line. The defense should be improved, but lose four of their top tacklers and six defensive starters overall. While I believe Arkansas can beat anyone, I think they’ll struggle to keep up with high-powered offenses like Texas A&M and Tennessee. An away game at Alabama comes at the end of a tough three week stretch. I do look for Arkansas to have a program defining win at some point, most likely when they host Auburn after a bye week. They’ll be hungry and they’ll bring toughness and aggression to an Auburn team that might have a problem handling that type of competition. Expect Arkansas to continue moving the program forward, but not seriously contend for the West after a third loss in week six.
6. LSU, 8-4 (6-3/3; 7.5-4.5):
W: McNeese St., Mississippi St., Syracuse, Eastern Michigan, Florida, Western Kentucky
L: Auburn, Alabama, Texas A&M
Toss Ups: South Carolina(W), Arkansas(W), Mississippi(L)
Summary: Another team that will benefit from a fairly easy schedule that includes Syracuse as non-conference game and South Carolina and Florida from the East in what will likely be off-seasons for both programs. The two biggest questions for LSU is at quarterback, which was an achilles heel for the Tigers last year, and the defense after the departure of John Chavis to Texas A&M. Look for LSU to not keep up with the offenses of Auburn and A&M and look for the LSU offense to struggle mightily against Ole Miss. LSU will have talent, but can Les Miles turn that talent into wins in a tough SEC West? I think LSU has another disappointing season this year. Look for some grumbling in Baton Rouge if this does happen, as folks will start to attribute a decades worth of success to things other than Les Miles.
7. Mississippi State, 4-8 (4-6/2; 5-7):
W: Southern Miss, Northwestern St., Troy, Louisiana Tech
L: LSU, Auburn, Texas A&M, Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi
Toss Ups: Kentucky(L), Missouri(L)
Summary: Mississippi State is only bring back seven total starters. One of the those starters, however, is quarterback Dak Prescott. Prescott will have a hard time managing the offense with only three other starters returning and an uncertain running game coming back. Look for teams to spy Prescott on every play and double returning WR Da’Runnya Wilson. On defense the Bulldogs only bring back three starters. Dan Mullen has brought in some talent in Starkville, but when you lose that much experience in the SEC West, it’s incredibly difficult to keep pace with the rest of the Division. Even the toss ups don’t match up well; Kentucky kept it close last year and their offense should be even better this year. Of all the toss ups, I would expect Mississippi State to have the best chance against Missouri. In the end, the Bulldogs might be a top-30 national team but finish 4-8 and last place in their division.
SEC East:
1.Georgia, 10-2 (8-0/4; 10-2):
W: ULM, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Southern, Missouri, Florida, Kentucky, Georgia Southern
L: None
Toss Ups: Alabama(L), Tennessee(W), Auburn(L), Georgia Tech(W)
Summary: Yet another traditional SEC power that might close fall camp without a clear starter at quarterback. Most assume sophomore Brice Ramsey will get the start, but head coach Mark Richt has recently indicated he might play more than one quarterback once the games begin. Georgia returns four of five starters on the offensive line – and they’re massive – and freshman sensation Nick Chubb, who rushed for almost 1600 yards last year in only eight starts. There is some hesitation with the quarterback situation and a new offensive coordinator in Brian Schottenheimer. Georgia’s defense, in Jeremy Pruitt’s second year, should again be a sound unit. Is this the year that Georgia wins the games that it should and pulls off an upset? Circle Alabama’s visit to Athens on October 3rd as a chance for Richt to get the big-win monkey off of his back. But beware, if the Bulldogs win that game they have a road trip to Knoxville the next that might be the most important game of the season for them. They’ve went down to the wire against the Vols two straight years.
2. Tennessee, 9-3 (7-1/4; 9-3):
W: Bowling Green, Western Carolina, Florida, Kentucky, North Texas, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
L: Alabama
Toss Ups: Oklahoma(L), Arkansas(W), Georgia(L), Missouri(W)
Summary: The energy is back in Knoxville and so is the expectation. Tennessee, along with Arkansas, is the SEC program on the rise and a popular pick to challenge for the division title. Unlike Arkansas, Tennessee plays in the relatively easier East Division rather than the West Division. Tennessee finally has the talent to be competitive at the top level of the SEC again and Tennessee’s schedule is favorable this year, as they get Oklahoma, Georgia, and South Carolina at home and play eight of their twelve games in the state of Tennessee. Look for Butch Jones to continue the momentum are the program with big wins against Florida and Arkansas. A win against Florida would break a decade-long losing streak against Tennessee’s second biggest contemporary rival. This is where the Tennessee program needs to be this year, but Vol fans are really looking at 2016 right now.
3. Missouri, 8-4 (4-2/6; 7-5):
W: SE Missouri St., Arkansas St., Connecticut, Vanderbilt
L: Georgia, Arkansas
Toss Ups: Kentucky(L), South Carolina(W), Florida(W), Mississippi St.(W), BYU(W), Tennessee(L)
Summary: I’ve given up trying to figure out and predict Missouri. Two-time defending SEC East champions. Their home-away win-loss ratio from last year was mind-boggling. They return a seasoned quarterback and talented running back, but lose a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball. Look for Missouri to be a more consistent team, unfortunately not quite as good as they were last year. Missouri still finishes strong and takes advantage of a couple of programs in decline in the East. Look for the South Carolina game on October 3rd to be the critical match-up of their season, especially as I think that game will come off a Kentucky upset of Missouri the previous week.
4. South Carolina, 6-6 (4-4/4; 6-6):
W: North Carolina, UCF, Vanderbilt, The Citadel,
L: Georgia, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Clemson
Toss Up: Kentucky(W), Missouri(L), LSU(L), Florida(W)
Summary: South Carolina is coming off of a disappointing season. This offseason we’ve seen the Head Ball Coach more vocal than we have in several years. Does he know something we don’t, or is he just trying to divert attention away from the practice field? You never know with the HBC. What we do know is that South Carolina’s defense was not very good last year and they gave up three fourth quarter leads of 20 points or more on the season. Jon Hoke joins Lo Ward as co-defensive coordinators. Things on that side of the ball must improve for South Carolina to stay competitive against some good offenses in the SEC. They do return eight starters on defense from 2014, but only four on offense. One of those is Pharoh Cooper, All-American candidate at wide out. Look for the Gamecocks to be competitive all year long but struggle to reach bowl eligibility for a second straight year.
5. Kentucky, 6-6 (4-4/4; 6-6):
W: UL-L, Eastern Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Charlotte
L: Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia, Louisville
Toss Ups: South Carolina(L), Florida(L), Missouri(W), Mississippi St.(W)
Summary: Mark Stoops has brought some talent into Lexington. The Wildcats were a blown call in the triple-OT Florida game from bowl eligibility last year and hope to carry that momentum and the return of several key offensive starters – quarterback Patrick Towles and running back Boom Williams first among them – into the 2015 campaign. But it’s hard to move forward in the SEC, even in the East. The defense is still a work in progress after giving up 40 or more points in five of the last six regular season games last year. Look for Kentucky to be more competitive and return to bowl eligibilty for the first time since 2010 this year.
6. Florida, 5-7 (4-5/3; 5.5-6.5):
W: New Mexico St., East Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Vanderbilt
L: Tennessee, Mississippi, LSU, Georgia, Florida St.
Toss Ups: Kentucky(W), Missouri(L), South Carolina(L)
Summary: There haven’t been this many questions in the Swamp since the fightin’ Zooks break camp in the first post-Spurrier season. Jim McElwain takes over after three years and a 22-16 record at Colorado St. McElwain’s new system still doesn’t have a quarterback in charge as Will Grier and Treon Harris are still battling for the QB1 slot. The defense is expected to still be good with seven returning starters, including the entire secondary. But there are new coaches on that side of the ball, too. The Gators’ defense better be good, because it’s going to take some time for the offense to come around. Expect the season to turn on the Tennessee tilt, September 26th. A loss at home to the Vols would deal a psychological blow to a young team that has a tough schedule from there on out. Also don’t overlook the Gators trip to Lexington the previous week in a what could be a bellweather game for both teams. In the end, the Gators struggle and miss a bowl for the second time in three years.
7. Vanderbilt, 3-9 (3-9/0; 3-9):
W: Austin Peay, Middle Tennessee, Houston
L: WKU, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, Missouri, Florida, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Tennessee
Toss Ups: None
Summary: After three straight bowl seasons James Franklin bolted Nashville for Penn State and left the cupboard pretty dry for Derek Mason. Mason’s squad had a horrendous 2014, getting blown out by Temple, losing five games by 24 points or more, and having to play four different quarterbacks during the season. Mason shuffled his coaching staff this offseason and the Commodores bring back 18 returning starters, tied for most in the SEC. The Commodores will be a little bit better, especially on the defense, but a little bit isn’t going to do it against an SEC schedule. We’ll get an early look at what this team is capable of when they play a high-powered offense in Western Kentucky in week one. If Vanderbilt can’t beat WKU, don’t expect them to post any wins in conference play either.
So there it is, the LWOS 2015 SEC Preview. That’s how I see the SEC season unfolding in 2015 as we get ready to break fall camps and start game preparations.
Of course, injuries, incidents and upstarts will always jump out to surprise us. The biggest trend going into this season is the tough and wide open race for the SEC West championship. There are, I think, four teams that could legitimately win that division and ultimate get a berth into the College Football Playoffs in addition to Georgia out of the East.
One thing is a lock: it’s going to be a great football season in the south!
AUBURN, AL – AUGUST 31: A SEC logo on a field marker during Auburn’s game against the Washington State Cougars on August 31, 2013 at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Alabama. At halftime Auburn leads Washington State 25-21. (Photo by Michael Chang/Getty Images)
