The ATP side of the 2015 Rogers Cup begins today in Montreal with a full featured Masters field that includes 18 of the world’s top 20 players, with Roger Federer and David Ferrer absent. Many of the top names in the men’s game, including Novak Djokovic are starting their 2015 US Open prep in Montreal, while others such as John Isner have already been active on the US Open Series in previous stops in Atlanta and Washington. Here is a look at names that could perform well, and others that could finish the week disappointed in their performance.
Hot
5: Denis Kudla
Kudla, who is 17-13 on outdoor hard courts this year, has been on a hot streak since the American hired Billy Heiser as his coach. It all began during the grass court season, and it continued in Atlanta where the talented (nearly) 23 year old posted his best result of the ATP season with a run to the semifinals. Kudla upset Jack Sock, and nearly topped the American #1 John Isner as well. He struggled last week in Washington, but he qualified with relative ease here and will have a shot at upsetting #5 seed Tomas Berdych in round 2. Should he pull that off, he could go as far as the quarterfinals. Kudla is one of the best pure ball strikers in the game, and the rest of his game is starting to grow with his ball striking ability, he may just now be reaching his potential.
4: Hyeon Chung
Another fresh name to look out for, the 19 year old Chung is the best of the best in South Korean tennis right now and he has a fantastic 28-7 record on hard courts below the main tour level. Chung has a bit of a funky game, that includes whipping his backhand forward, but he’s a good server, and blazed through qualifying after giving eventual Washington semifinalist Marin Cilic a tough match in round 2. Chung has lost matches this year to Tomas Berdych and Fernando Verdasco along with Cilic, but performed well in all of them, and he’ll have his shot at upsetting Leonardo Mayer, a veteran who prefers clay to hard courts.
3: John Isner
Isner has been shaky outside of North America this year, but did well in both of the American spring Masters (IW/Miami). In the two stops on the US Open series thus far (Atlanta and Washington), he has an ATP title and an ATP final, demonstrating that the now 30 year old is back having mastery over his serve and the rest of his game is solid enough to earn him wins over all but elite opponents like Kei Nishikori, who he lost to in a three set Washington final. The big serving and big hitting American may have to deal with fatigue but if he can get past Stan Wawrinka in round 3, a winnable prospect, he could make another deep run in Masters level tournament.
2: Gilles Muller
Another veteran big server in great form is Muller, who combines an excellent first serve with crisp volleys for success. Muller was a semifinalist in Atlanta and has been in good form since the grass court season, as his game is best on fast surfaces. He nearly took out Richard Gasquet in Washington but lost in three sets and now he’s given a draw that places Gael Monfils and Andy Murray in his path to success. It’s not an easy draw, but Muller could create havoc if he swings a break, or a tiebreak or two his way in those matches.
1: Steve Johnson
Johnson improved to 15-9 on the year on hard courts with a run to the semis in Washington. His play has been markedly improved this year, as he’s matured into a solid top 50 ATP player. At the Citi Open he upset Grigor Dimitrov, along with Bernard Tomic and Jack Sock, and the former NCAA champion is clearly making a run at the American #2 spot. He’ll have a fine chance to upset the undersized David Goffin if he brings his big game and then will likely have to face fellow Yank Sam Querrey for the right to take on Kei Nishikori. Nishikori beat Johnson this year in Brisbane, so he’s not likely to get past round 3, but he’s still playing well under the radar right now and a dangerous opponent to face.
Cold
5: Feliciano Lopez
Lopez has had a poor season compared to last year and he’s just 8-6 on outdoor hard courts. Along with that, he didn’t play overly well in Washington, and in round 1 in Montreal he will face Tommy Robredo, a fellow Spaniard who he does not have a good record against. Even if Feli wins that, Andy Murray, who has never beaten, though he has over 10 losses to the Scot, will be next, thus Lopez has little chance to make a run at this tournament an kickstart his pedestrian season.
4: Milos Raonic
Raonic is the hometown hero and favorite as the Canadian #1, but he hasn’t been the same player since foot surgery and didn’t prep for hard court tennis after the grass court season. The former Rogers Cup finalist is certainly a great fast court power server who has improved his game, but a tough draw should see him out in round 2 against fellow big server Ivo Karlovic, who is in good form, or Richard Gasquet, whose one handed backhand should dog him. I have a feeling this will be a forgettable Rogers Cup for Raonic.
3: Viktor Troicki
Troicki has lost two straight matches and he looked awful in Washington, losing to Sam Groth 6-3 6-4. The Serbian has had a great season breaking back into the top 30 and making a name for himself for something besides his suspension but he seems to have hit a bit of a wall, whether it be mental or physical. His earlier solid results this year would have made him a dark horse, but instead he should lose in the first three rounds against either qualifier and veteran Mikhail Youzhny, Gilles Simon, or Rafa Nadal, the latter two players having a great h2h record against him.
2: Grigor Dimitrov
Dimitrov lost his coach Roger Rasheed, and apparently Maria Sharapova as well, as the young Bulgarian has not made strides on court with this tennis this season. Off-court he’s been feeling the blues, setting him up for a possible round 1 exit from the Rogers Cup. The unfocused Dimitrov, who isn’t developing at the same rate as the other stars of his generation, hasn’t had a good tournament in the USA all year, and hasn’t had any good runs since the clay court season. Alexandr Dolgopolov or Adrian Mannarino/Jack Sock should take him out before he even gets a shot against Novak Djokovic.
1: Bernard Tomic
Bernard Tomic got arrested for a noise violation and promptly won the ATP Bogota tournament. Since that result in the mountains however, the Australian has been unfocused, and ineffective and went back to tanking as he gave up on a three set match against Steve Johnson. If there is a physical problem then he’s not in good shape, if it’s all in his head he’s clearly gaming the system. He has always been an incredible talent, but you have to wonder at which point he’ll grow up, at a minimum, don’t expect him to run riot over the Rogers Cup.
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