Jason Fletcher, a featured writer for RantSports.com, wrote an article where he predicted that the New York Jets, led by quarterback Geno Smith, will make the playoffs in 2015. The article also states that Smith will make the Pro Bowl in 2015 and that the Jets will be serious Super Bowl contenders this season. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion (that’s part of what makes sports great) and I respect Mr. Fletcher for having the guts to make some bold predictions and for providing some sound reasoning to try to back up his declarations. But allow me to address his predictions in order.
Won’t happen, won’t happen, and won’t happen.
At best, the Jets are the third best team in the AFC East and that won’t be good enough to make the playoffs for the first time since 2010. New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady should have his four-game suspension completely vacated, but even if the Patriots have to play the first four games of the 2015 season without their future Hall of Fame quarterback, they will still be the favorites to win the division. Plus, in my opinion, the Miami Dolphins will be better than the Jets in 2015, if for no other reason that Ryan Tannehill is a better quarterback than Geno Smith.
The Jets went 4-12 in 2015 including an eight game losing streak, and in looking at their 2015 schedule, I see them finishing the 2015 season with a record of 8-8 at best. That record assumes they split all division games and finish 3-3 in the AFC East this season. And that might be generous given the fact that Smith has a career 42.3 QBR against AFC East opponents. The Jets have improved this season, but I don’t think the talent they have added will equate to more than an additional four wins. I will be doing my preseason prediction next month, but I think there are nine to 11 AFC teams that will finish with better records than the Jets. A record of 8-8 simply won’t be enough to make the playoffs, and I don’t see New York finishing better than .500 in 2015. If the Jets fail to make the playoffs (highly likely in my opinion) they obviously won’t be Super Bowl contenders.
If the Jets magically find some way to make the playoffs, it will be in spite of Smith, not because of him. In his first two seasons in the NFL he has thrown 25 touchdowns and 34 interceptions. That’s not the ratio a starting quarterback who is poised to lead his team to the playoffs (and possibly the Super Bowl) should have. His career completion percentage is 57.5, and his rating for this first two seasons in the NFL is 71.5. Not that everything in the NFL has to be about the numbers, but those statistics do not instill a ton of confidence that the former West Virginia quarterback will put up great numbers in 2015. Smith has some talent, but if you have watched him in the NFL, he has proven he makes too many costly mistakes and he is far too inconsistent. There is a greater chance that either 11-year veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick or rookie Bryce Petty finish the season as the Jets starting quarterback than there is that Smith leads the Jets to the playoffs, while being named to the Pro Bowl.
Each season there is a team or two that missed the playoffs the previous season that surprises NFL fans the following season by making the postseason. That may happen again in 2015, but if it does it won’t be because the Geno Smith led Jets made the playoffs. The New York Jets won’t make the playoffs in 2015.
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