Ignoring ERA: Carrasco, Buchholz, May

*All stats through June 14th

If you were to look at the ERAs of Carlos Carrasco, Clay Buchholz, and Trevor May, you would probably dismiss the notion that these three pitchers are having great seasons. All three pitchers currently hold ERAs that are above major league average of 4.03 for starting pitchers. Carrasco’s ERA is 4.38, Buchholz’s is 4.22, and May’s is 4.18.

Ignoring ERA: Carrasco, Buchholz, May

Despite their relatively high ERAs, these three pitchers are all having extremely good seasons. Each has a FIP below 3 and rank in the top 25 among all starters in WAR. If they were to end their seasons with their present ERAs and FIPs, they would be the first qualified starters to have ERAs greater than 4 and FIPs below 3 since Jerry Koosman, Jerry Reuss, and Mike Caldwell all accomplished the feat in 1972. Don Wilson in 1969 and Rick Wise in 1968 were the only other qualified starters to accomplish the feat since 1950, and only 15 pitchers in total have accomplished this since 1900. What Carrasco, Buccholz, and May are doing is rare and unlikely to continue for the entire season, as their underlying stats suggest they are destined to improve their numbers.

#	Season	Name	Team	ERA	FIP
1	2015	Trevor May	Twins	4.16	2.80
2	2015	Clay Buchholz	Red Sox	4.22	2.79
3	2015	Carlos Carrasco	Indians	4.38	2.67
4	1972	Mike Caldwell	Padres	4.01	2.94
5	1972	Jerry Koosman	Mets	4.14	2.83
6	1972	Jerry Reuss	Astros	4.17	2.94
7	1969	Don Wilson	Astros	4.00	2.85
8	1968	Rick Wise	Phillies	4.55	2.85
9	1949	Dutch Leonard	Cubs	4.15	2.71
10	1944	Johnny Gorsica	Tigers	4.11	2.97
11	1942	Bobo Newsom	– – –	4.73	2.98
12	1917	Elmer Myers	Athletics	4.42	2.84
13	1915	Rube Marquard	– – –	4.04	2.58
14	1914	Ed Willett	Terriers	4.22	2.93
15	1914	Henry Keupper	Terriers	4.27	2.65
16	1913	George Suggs	Reds	4.03	2.74
17	1912	Ray Caldwell	Highlanders	4.47	2.98
18	1906	George Winter	Americans	4.12	2.72

Chart courtesy of Fangraphs.com

FIP (fielding independent pitching) attempts to measure a pitcher’s performance based solely on the things he can control: strikeouts, walks, home runs, and hit batters. FIP is generally seen as a better indicator of pitcher performance because, as Fangraphs notes, “ FIP strips out the role of defense, luck, and sequencing, making it a more stable indicator of how a pitcher actually performed over a given period of time than a runs allowed based statistic that would be highly dependent on the quality of defense played behind him”. Carrasco, Buchholz, and May are part of a select group that is excelling in the three primary components of FIP: strikeouts, walks, and home runs. From 2010-2014, there were only 98 individual seasons (average of 19.6 per season) where qualified starting pitchers posted better than league average K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 rates. This season is on par with the past five seasons, as there are currently 20 pitchers who are accomplishing the feat. Carrasco, Buchholz and May are three of the 20 pitchers.

From 2010-2014, the Cy Young winner in each league has always posted better than league average K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 rates in their respective seasons. What makes the cases of Carrasco, Buchholz, and May so unique is that their high ERAs contrast sharply with their low FIPs. Since 2010, only four pitchers in the distinguished class of 98 have finished the season with ERAs above 4: Rick Porcello (ERA of 4.43 in 2013), Jason Hammel (ERA of 4.81 in 20100, Zack Greinke (ERA of 4.17 in 2010), and Gavin Floyd (ERA of 4.08 in 2010). Hammel, in fact, had the largest positive E-F (ERA minus FIP) among all these pitchers and was the only one who had an E-F above one. Carrasco, Buchholz, and May all have an E-F greater than one. The average ERA of this group of pitchers from the past five seasons is 3.06 and the average FIP is 3.1; both are great numbers for starting pitchers. The average WAR for these pitchers is 4.78, which would put them on the high end of the All-Star range, according to Fangraphs. Carrasco, Buchholz and May are all on pace to eclipse four WAR if they make 30 starts.

One final reason to expect these three pitchers to improve their ERAs by the end of the season is that all three have been victimized by a high BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). Carrasco, Buchholz, and May all hold BABIPs above .335. This seaso,n the major league average for BABIP among all starters is a substantially lower .297. Furthermore, the average BABIP among all starters who finished with better than league average K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 was .287, and none have finished with a BABIP higher than what Carrasco, Buchholz, or May currently have. They have all been unlucky and, based on their current numbers, it is reasonable to expect their ERAs to continue to drop as the season progresses.

Even though their ERAs don’t reflect it, Carlos Carrasco, Clay Buchholz, and Trevor May have been three of the top 25 pitchers in baseball this season. Only a select 20 or so pitchers demonstrate the ability to post K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 rates better than league average, and all three are in that class this season. Even if you look closer at each individual case, there are other reasons to expect continued improvement. Carrasco is posting a career high K/9 and is top 10 in baseball in that category. Buchholz is posting career-best strikeout and walk rates and is also giving up less hard contact and fewer fly balls than he has in any other season. Though it is only May’s second season, which makes it difficult to judge this season against his career, he is in the top 15 in baseball in terms of low walk rate and is walking fewer batters than he has in any other season in his professional career. Carrasco, Buchholz, and May have been pitching great this season and even if you only looked at their respective BABIPs and strand rate (LOB%), you would still expect some type of improvement going forward. Only time will tell, but for now, they are in a pretty select class of pitchers.

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