On Wednesday we get to witness both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal take to the court in their 44th installment of what has been a brutal rivalry dating back to 2006–the first time they played a Roland Garros quarterfinal, which was in fact their first ever meeting.
In just two days one of two streaks will draw to a closure; two ruthless streaks that demonstrate the impact and sheer domination both athletes have had on this sport both in recent memory and over an accumulation of the last decade on clay. Rafael Nadal swerves into this match on a 35 match win streak at Roland Garros and a 70-1 win and loss record, which any tennis aficionado would be very aware of. On the other hand, Novak Djokovic is the World #1 and seemingly in a period where he’s now being considered as one of the greats. He now sits on a 27 match win streak, which includes four Masters level titles in Monte Carlo, Miami, Indian Wells, and Rome. In that run Novak has a 14-1 record against any member of the Top 10 in 2015, with the only loss coming to Roger Federer in Dubai- a court that significantly favours the Swiss given it’s one of the fastest courts on the ATP tour.
The nine-time Roland Garros champion Rafael Nadal’s main issue coming into this tournament is the special word “confidence”. In a special interview with new tennis analyst and former Grand Slam champion Andy Roddick, Nadal spoke about that word “Confidence” and said that ultimately “Experience” is such an overvalued word and said he’d take “Confidence” over “Experience” any day, which is interesting when you combine that with what Rafael Nadal brings to the table in Wednesday’s big quarterFinal. There’s a great deal of second guessing and hesitation around Rafael Nadal’s game and I believe it all revolves around confidence. He’s played just seven matches in comparison to Novak against the Top 10 this year, winning just two of those matches–one against David Ferrer and another more recently against Tomas Berdych in the Madrid Masters. The issue with Rafa is that he’s losing so early in tournaments consistently to players he’d usually beat regularly that he’s not even giving himself the opportunity to face the Andy Murrays and Novak Djokovics of this world on a regular basis. With time, once you have a lack of familiarity to those special distinctive situations and circumstances, it affects your game both short and long term. That can be affiliated with Andy Murray; he’s a perfect example of what Nadal is going through now. Murray had over a year absence without beating a member of the Big 4 and also a long vacancy of getting a Top 10 win, which came from a lack of form because of the back injury that saw him out of the game and (like with Nadal) the unfamiliarity with the occasion. He simply had forgotten what it felt like to win against these players, which shows that even the very best lose confidence despite the years of training they put into this sport.
Djokovic’s confidence is at the highest it’s perhaps been in his career; there’s already comparisons made to the 2011 Djokovic that won 10 titles including a US Open, Australian Open and Wimbledon title. I think he’s short of that but his base level of play is better than anyone’s right now. You’ve also got to factor the position that Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are in their respective careers, both capable and great enough to challenge for these Grand Slams but Djokovic is at the peak of his powers in terms of where he’s at at this stage in his career.
In many respects it will be fascinating to see who wins on the battlefield on Wednesday, but there will be a few factors that will essentially have a telling tale on who wins this match. One element of Rafael Nadal’s game that everyone will be focusing on is how short the forehand drops based on his confidence. Will he get the depth needed to prevent Novak Djokovic from getting a sustained interest in this match? Can his ball consistently push Djokovic back with the additional topspin he gets on the ball? Nadal has often mentioned in press conferences the importance of that shot and whether he can get that ball high on Djokovic’s backhand to prevent it from being the weapon that it’s capable of being. We’ve seen in previous matches like the 2013 US Open final where Nadal attacked the backhand with topspin, so he didn’t allow Novak to get on the front foot. The problematic occurrence with that is that Nadal’s ball historically this season haven’t been anywhere near as effective as previous years, although he’s been finding his range at this year’s Roland Garros.
Most players’ success against Rafael Nadal comes from stretching him out wide where he’s covering his backhand, which alternatively exposes his forehand, which is an eye-opener for any tennis player looking to get a well-earned victory over Nadal. His forehand is predominantly one of the best forehands seen in this sport, but leaving space on that side to cover his weaker wing means it’s less of a risk for the opponent to go to that side. That’s one of the battles Nadal’s had in his head when taking to the court on one of his off days.
It’ll be an outstanding day of tennis, where one streak has to come to a crashing halt. Who’s streak will end, Djokovic’s or Nadal’s?
Enjoy what you see? Check out LastWord’s full French Open coverage here. It’s the only place you’ll every need for everything French Open.
Main Photo
