Today, it is Thursday which means it is my turn to share my opinions and ideas which contributed to how I set my 5-28-15 Daily Fantasy Picks. The values are based off of DraftKings and based off the contests that start at 8:05 PM EST (today there are no games that start at the usual 7:05 PM EST time).
Disclaimer: These picks are subject to change based on last minute line-up changes and weather.
The early data that is available indicates that none of the games are expected to be impacted by weather.
Starting Pitchers
Corey Kluber, SP, Cleveland Indians, $11,600
Yes, the price tag for Corey Kluber is very high (23.2% of the DraftKings salary cap). However, it has appeared that the price tag is worth it as he has given up 2 ER and has racked up 37 SO over his last three starts. Looking at the bigger picture, he has an FIP of 2.19, a 10.72 K/9 and will be taking his talents to Safeco Field which is already friendly to pitchers.
Also, there is absolutely no circumstance where I would use $10,100 on A.J. Burnett, Shelby Miller on the surface sounds nice at $9,300 but he has a modest 7.2 K/9 rate and a FIP which is over two times higher than his 1.50 ERA or $8,400 for CC Sabathia who is pitching like he is well past his peak.
Chris Heston, SP, San Francisco Giants, $6,100
I’m not too crazy about the pitchers in the $7,000-$8,000 range (James Paxton, C.J. Wilson and Ian Kennedy) for tonight. However, I think Heston is a sleeper pick at $6,100. His 3.88 FIP & 7.17 K/9 are nothing to write home about but it is very competitive with the totals for pitchers with a higher price tag. One thing that is also helpful is that the Giants will be playing in the confines of AT&T Park. This year, Heston has a 2.77 ERA at home.
Catcher
Brian McCann, C, New York Yankees, $4,400
The Athletics are starting Kendall Graveman tonight and to take advantage of this, McCann is the first of 3 Yankees in my line-up. Even though Graveman had a strong start his last time out, his numbers for 2014 are still not very good (6.04 ERA/5.73 FIP).
McCann has not been off to the greatest start this season as he is hitting .245 and has a wRC+ of 91. However, some of this can be attributed to the fact that he has struggled against lefties. Against righties, he has hit .253 and has hit 4 HR in 112 PA.
First Base
Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels, $4,200
The Tigers are starting Buck Farmer who has spent this season in the minors and struggled in 4 appearances last season. Tonight’s line-up contains 3 Angels players as there is a decent chance that Farmer struggles in his season debut.
Pujols is another high profile player who doesn’t have the best numbers this season (.235 AVG, 100 wRC+). Like McCann, one of the contributing factors to the lower numbers has been struggles against lefties pitching. However, Pujols has hit better against righties this season (.260 AVG 6 HR in 138 PA) and gets to face some mediocre right handed pitching tonight.
Second Base
Neil Walker, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates, $3,700
This season, Walker is hitting .259 and has a wRC+ of 102. Walker is slightly more valuable tonight as he will be facing Ian Kennedy. Walker’s numbers have been much stronger against righties this year as he is hitting .270 with all 3 of his HR against them. He also appears to be very comfortable hitting against Ian Kennedy. In 18 PA, he is hitting .444 with 3 HR against Kennedy.
Third Base
Chase Headley, 3B, New York Yankees, $4,000
Headley is another player that comes into tonight’s actions with not the best numbers (.252 AVG/98 wRC+) but he has been hitting better in May (.272 AVG 3 HR in 23 games) and has relatively strong numbers against righties (.274 AVG 4 HR in 120 PA).
Shortstop
Erick Aybar, SS, Los Angeles Angels, $3,700
Aybar does not have the greatest numbers this year either (.271 AVG/88 wRC+) but his numbers have been weighed down by a slow start to the season. In May, he has hit.313 in 24 games and has been much more comfortable playing at home where he has hit .295 this season.
Outfield
Kole Calhoun, OF, Los Angeles Angels, $4,300
So far, Calhoun has provided a nice follow up to a strong 2014 season. This year, he is hitting .287 with 4 HR and a 118 wRC+. Even though he has hit equally as well against lefties as he has against righties, his performance at home has been much stronger as he is hitting .354 with 3 HR in 20 home games this season.
Brett Gardner, OF, New York Yankees, $4,100
Gardner is having a solid season so far as he is hitting .279 with 4 HR, 12 SB and a 122 wRC+. His value for tonight is increased as he gets the benefit of facing some inexperienced right handed pitching. This season, Gardner is hitting .295 with 3 HR in 121 PA against righties.
Ben Zobrist, OF, Oakland Athletics, $3,800
Zobrist has seen his playing time limited this season due to injury but he is back in action. With the Athletics facing CC Sabathia, this could put Zobrist in line to have a strong night as he has a .286 career AVG against lefties.
All statistics found on fangraphs.com
All statistics through 5/26/15
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