4-13-15 Daily Fantasy Picks

The 4-13-15 Daily Fantasy Picks are based off of the slate of games starting at 7:05 PM EST/4:05 PST and covers the following games:

Yankees-Orioles, Rays-Blue Jays, Marlins-Braves, Reds-Cubs, Angels-Rangers, Athletics-Astros, Mariners-Dodgers, Diamondbacks-Padres

The values listed are based off of the values on DraftKings.

Disclaimer: These picks are subject to change based off of weather forecasts and last-minute lineup decisions.

Update (1:00 PM PST): Currently, the data on rotowire.com indicates that there is a better of 50% chance of rain for the Marlins-Braves game and the Angels-Rangers game. Based on this, Andrelton Simmons and Mike Trout were removed from the original line-up. Billy Hamilton was removed from my line-up as he is not in the Reds starting line-up tonight.

Starting Pitchers

Brandon McCarthy, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers, $8,100

While there are Starting Pitching options that are higher profile available (i.e. Jon Lester) available, I opted to go with McCarthy. First of all, I think McCarthy is in for a strong season and his price will likely rise as the season goes on. Last season, he had a 3.55 FIP despite spending his season pitching at two hitter-friendly parks (Chase Field and Yankee Stadium).

I like his match tonight as he will be pitching at Dodger Stadium which is much friendlier to Pitchers. Even though he give up 4 ER in his first start, opposing hitters also had a .538 BABIP which indicates that he was more unlucky than bad. He also racked up plenty of strikeouts and is coming off a 2014 season where he had a 7.88 K/9.

Jake Odorizzi, SP, Tampa Bay Rays, $7,000

Odorizzi is one of those players that I think is in for a breakout season and I was absolutely thrilled when I saw that he was available for $7,000.

Granted, this pick is not without risk as the Rays are facing the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre which is friendly to hitters. Even this risk factor is partially mitigated by the fact that he is not as prone to giving up HR (8.7% HR/FB rate last season). However, I do have faith in Odorizzi racking up strong strike out totals all season (he had a 9.32 K/9 last year). In his first start, he threw 6 2/3 shutout innings and had a very strong FIP indicating that the strong results were more than just having good luck.

Catcher

Stephen Vogt, C, Oakland Athletics, $3,700

Vogt is off to a strong start this season as he has hit .357 with 1 HR in his first five games. In addition to going up against one of the weakest Starting Pitchers in tonight’s slate of games (Scott Feldman), Vogt has the match-up advantage as he hit .291 against Righties last year.

First Base

Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs, $4,800

Rizzo has not had the strongest start to the season as he is 2 for his first 21. However, he gets to face a familiar opponent in Mike Leake tonight. Rizzo has had success against him as he is 7 for 20 with 1 HR against Leake and playing at Wrigley Field where he hit .315 with 14 HR last season.

Second Base

Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays, $3,900

Cabrera is off to a strong start in his tenure with the Rays as he has hit .320 in his first 26 PA. In addition, the Rays are playing at the Rogers Centre.

Third Base

Jedd Gyorko, 3B, San Diego Padres, $3,700

Gyorko is coming off an underwhelming 2014 season and he has not been off to the strongest start this year. However, he is a bounce back candidate 2015 and he has a favorable matchup tonight as he gets to face Rubby de la Rosa who got roughed around in his first start and has a 4.51 career ERA.

Shortstop

Andrelton Simmons, SS, Atlanta Braves, $3,300 [Original]

Even though Simmons is much more accomplished with the glove than the bat, he has shown early signs of progress as he has hit .304 over his first 23 PA. In addition, he has enough pop in his bat that hitting a HR isn’t outside the realm of possibility which isn’t bad for the SS position and his price. Also, he will be facing Mat Latos who isn’t exactly off to the greatest start this season.

Jose Reyes, SS, Toronto Blue Jays $4,700 [Updated]

Even though Reyes has a very tough match up against Jake Odorizzi tonight, he does hold a lot of advantages. One thing that led me to start Reyes as a replacement for Simmons is that the other top SS options (Aybar, Gordon & Andrus) are all involved in the aforementioned games where there is a risk of weather playing a factor. Also, Reyes is set to bat lead-off tonight which will give him additional opportunities to hit and he was a slighter better hitter at Home (.750 OPS last year) versus Road games (.701 OPS).

Outfield

Brett Gardner, OF, New York Yankees $4,700

Gardner is off to a solid start, hitting .273 with 1 HR over his first 5 games. Even though he has struggled against the Orioles historically, he has hit well against Wei-Yin Chen. In his career, Gardner is 5 for 14 with 1 HR and 5 RBI against Chen.

Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds $4,200 [Original]

Even though Hamilton has not hit that well to start the season, he has made his impact by stealing 7 bases. Tonight, the Reds are going up against the Cubs, a team he has generally played well against. In his career, he has hit .333 with 1 HR and 12 RBI in 20 games against them.

Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels $6,600 [Original]

First of all, anytime you have an opportunity to fit the best hitter in the game within budget Trout automatically receives consideration. In addition, it also helps that he isn’t exactly going up against a dominant pitcher in Ross Detwiler (who happens to be the lowest priced Starting Pitcher in this slate of games. In case you need extra incentive, he loves to hit in Texas where he has a 1.090 career OPS in 153 PA.

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, New York Yankees $4,800 [Updated]

Even though the Yankees are away from the confines of Yankee Stadium, he still has a match-up advantage tonight. He is facing Wei-Yin Chen tonight and Ellsbury has had success against him going 6 for 13 against him in his career. In addition, Ellsbury did hit Lefties better than he hit right-handed pitching last season.

Steve Pearce, OF, Baltimore Orioles, $4,600 [Updated]

Even though Pearce is only hitting .217 in his first 6 games, so far it appears that his power is not a fluke as he already has 2 HR. In tonight’s game, one advantage with starting Pearce is that the Orioles are playing at home. Last year, Pearce hit .329 with 12 HR in 197 PA in home games.

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